2013 MLB Predictions: Shades of 2011

You might recall how just a couple years ago, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox were by and large considered the tremendous favorites to win the World Series. It was going to be one of those teams, and chances seemed good that both would be there in the end after an off-season that those two clubs make the biggest acquisitions. And instead, well ... neither lived up to those expectations. Not that too many people complained about the World Series we did get that year (other than residents of the Lone Star State, perhaps).

So a quick look around at predictions made elsewhere makes it pretty clear that this year, we're seemingly destined for a Detroit Tigers-Washington Nationals World Series, or at least one of those teams is going to beat somebody else. Being the contrarian that I am (other than 2011, of course), I'm immediately concocting reasons to pick any one of the other 28 teams.

OK, except for the Marlins. I won't be making that mistake again. This year, at least.
Anyway, on to the predictions that I can never get the spacing to work for:

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays


New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles


Boston Red Sox

I wanted oh so badly to put the Yankees last, and maybe this would have been the year to do that. But ultimately, it's hard to believe that the Orioles are going to be able to replicate last year's success and I'm still expecting some more suffering in Boston. As for the top of the division, Toronto will certainly be improved and should contend, but I'm expecting Tampa to start strong, finish stronger and ultimately win the division.

American League Central

Detroit Tigers


Kansas City Royals


Cleveland Indians


Chicago White Sox


Minnesota Twins



After many years of Minnesota being the foregone conclusion to win the Central, they're now universally expected to be the cellar dwellers here. As much as I'd like to go out on a limb and pick anybody other than Detroit to win this division, there's just too many doubts about every other team to believe anybody else will be able to contend. The Royals, who were probably the club I flirted most with the idea of, seem well overdue. Still, the Tigers simply have too much talent to be denied. That was the story last year too, and Detroit had to wait until the final week to sew things up. I'd be surprised if they let it get that close this year.

American League West

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Oakland Athletics

Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros

 

Welcome to a whole new type of misery, Houston fans. It might make Seattle fans feel a little bit better, but not much. I hope it's not a mistake to dismiss Oakland again, but this seems like the year that Anaheim "Los Angeles"delivers on the promise of their talent after a fairly lackluster campaign last season. Texas might miss Josh Hamilton's bat, but probably not his defense. Something leads me to believe that Ron Washington gets the best of what he's got to work with.

National League East

Washington Nationals


Atlanta Braves


Philadelphia Phillies


New York Mets

Miami Marlins

If you click on those picks from the other three sources  I linked to, this is the widely-accepted exact finish across the board. Simply put, the Nationals are loaded and actually healthy. The Braves made the necessary acquisitions to be playoff contenders. Then there's Philadelphia, who should never be dismissed even though they're no longer the class of the East. And the Mets have already started the year on sour note with the loss of Santana, but things could be worse. At least they're not Miami.



National League Central

Pittsburgh Pirates


Cincinnati Reds


St. Louis Cardinals


Milwaukee Brewers


Chicago Cubs


OK, I'm finally making a riskier bet. Cincinnati is the predominant favorite, but I'm going to go ahead and say the Pirates finally end their playoff drought. Part of it will be how surprisingly well Pittsburgh plays, but the other part will be a Reds failure to live up to expectations. The rest of the division is pretty much as expected, with the Cardinals contending for the postseason all year and the Brewers simply being a better team than the Cubs.

National League West

San Diego Padres


San Francisco Giants


Los Angeles Dodgers


Arizona Diamondbacks


Colorado Rockies


I was honestly going to pick this division winner even before I saw Joe Sheehan predict that the Padres would be the year's biggest surprise. As I said last year, this is a division I never seem to get right, although I did correctly call the Giants emerging last year. San Francisco is certainly a favorite as the defending champions, and the Dodgers certainly have their believers, but I suppose I worry most that the Diamondbacks will far surpass my low expectations for them. If the Rockies are able to even finish above .500, that would be pretty stunning.

Wild Card Playoffs

Rangers over Blue Jays

Braves over Reds

Divisional Playoffs

Rangers over Tigers in four

Rays over Angels in five

Nationals over Braves in four

Padres over Pirates in five

League Championship Series

Rangers over Rays in five

Padres over Nationals in seven

2013 World Series

Rangers over Padres in six

So while many people are thinking Detroit will rebound from being runners-up last year by winning it all this year, I guess I'm thinking that a Texas team I honestly was tempted to pick to finish third in that division when first creating this post will avenge that 2o11 heartbreak. And I am also guessing that I will be applying a whole lot of red to these picks at season's end.