Well, I went out on a limb on more than a few picks last week and my reward was a score of 108 points that was lower than all five of the other "sheets" I post here. Brian Burke went an incredible 15-1 last week—and only his editor called attention to it this week, even adding that his one misfire was probably somewhat affected by Big Ben's failure to play.
You might notice that I'm skipping my usual strictly Thursday pick and going right into the whole week's slate at once. That's because I decided that despite however poor my numbers (again, calculated like this) have been performing this year, I still wanted to fill out a sheet just as they were ordered. As I might have mentioned a few times this year, when I did that last season, I ended up winning. So that column above on the far right there will also be representing my own picks this week as well. I've been toying with doing this for a number of weeks, but this is the first one that actually felt right.
Here's me expressing varying levels of discomfort with how the math turned out and occasionally justifying the experiment:
16 points San Diego Chargers (8-3) over Cleveland Browns (1-10) +58/+7 : +157/150/+7 : 0/+99
OK, good start. No complaints about this point allocation whatsoever.
15 points New Orleans Saints (11-0) over Washington Redskins (3-8) +88/-7 : +138/133/+5 : +12/+50
Now this is a bit higher than I probably would've gone with on my own, but even while I wouldn't totally dismiss a Washington upset this week, I certainly wouldn't pick it either.
14 points Cincinnati Bengals (8-3) over Detroit Lions (2-9) -2/-37 : +91/128/-37 : 0/+93
On my own, I probably would've put 16 on the Bengals—mostly to help them get out of their Power Ranking hole. But that's not the type of logic I want influencing my picks. The fact that Marvin Lewis owns the NFC North, however, is.
13 points Chicago Bears (4-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-10) +22/+6 : +129/123/+6 : 0/+107
Honestly, I would've gone lower. Something about the Bears makes them the ideal type of team that gets unexpectedly beaten by the Rams. Still, Cutler needs a big game at home without the night game demons and this could be the best opportunity in weeks to win back some of his doubters.
12 points Indianapolis Colts (11-0) over Tennessee Titans (5-6) +76/-4 : +92/102/-10 : -6/+16
Oh, you know I was tempted to think about picking the Titans, but I've already tried going against the Colts twice and have been burned both times, thank you. If Tennessee pulls off the stunner, I'll actually be happy to have the Indianapolis loss finally out of the way—although I fear that I'm going to be among the higher bettors on Indy this weekend, so it would come at more of a cost than I'd like.
11 points Carolina Panthers(4-7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10) +8/+34 : +112/78/+34 : 0/+104
This would be the fourth game now where my immediate reaction was "lower," so there better be some "higher"-causing picks coming up if this was to even out. I'd be more wary if the game was in Tampa, but since the Panthers are at home, it's once again a pick I can't argue too much with.
10 points Denver Broncos (7-4) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-8) +1/-14 : +54/69/-15 : -1/+53
Immature juvenile I am, I can't get over that number and it made me think of the otherwise totally unrelated first clip from this:
Yes, now finally here's a game I wanted higher. My best explanation for being spotted so low on the list has to be the combination of some unexpected losses from the Steelers and a unexpected wins from the Raiders so far this year hurt the point total.
6 points Dallas Cowboys (8-3) over New York Giants (6-5) +61/-1 : +61/29/+32 : +33/0
And we're back to games I would've ranked lower, but the story here is really that this marks the first time this year I've picked against the Giants.
5 points Philadelphia Eagles (7-4) over Atlanta Falcons (6-5) +32/+4 : +58/19/+39 : +35/+26
Lower? I would've gone lower.
4 points
New York Jets (5-6) over Buffalo Bills (4-7) -7/+2 : +24/19/+5 : +3/+31
Originally leaned toward the Bills after the big upset this week, especially with them playing at home—until I found out "home" was Toronto, and then I felt more comfortable with this pick. Maybe would've preferred a little lower.
Oh my, no winning here. I couldn't be happy either way—especially not this high up, of course.
2 points Seattle Seahawks (4-7) over San Francisco 49ers (5-6) +27/+52 : +47/9/+56 : +4/+20
Isn't this where I had them the last time these two played? Oh noes! Guess what? It was one point lower.
1 point Green Bay Packers (7-4) over Baltimore Ravens (6-5) +23/-5 : +23/3/+20 : +25/0
I was going to say this week ends with a game I wanted higher, but that's clearly irrelevant right now. And besides, I wanted to end with the same thought I had the last time I let my picks be dictated by the numbers:
Perfect. I usually like having little depending on Monday night's outcome.
I went 10-6 on my picks last weekend, which is a score that certainly felt like it was going to be a whole lot better when I came back from the annual brunch before the tree cutting to find Houston up on the Colts and most of my picks looking in good shape. I stepped outside for a cigarette and came back in to find Indy had scored something along the lines of three touchdowns while I was away and suddenly my one-point gamble was in the shitter while most everybody else had big points on the favorites. The remainder of the day was watching my chances slowly die rather than having a door shut on me immediately—as has been the case most every other recent week. After the Jaguars once again laid a turd in a West Coast visit, the Steelers couldn't capitalize on winning the overtime coin toss and then the Patriots got trounced just for good measure.
Oh, and the fantasy team, as you can plainly see, is nothing short of an unmitigated disaster these days. I'm not in last yet, but there's still time. The highest-earning scorer on my team this week was my fucking kicker. I toyed with the idea of posting a screen grab of the "optimal" results as well, but it really wouldn't have proved anything since my bench is also bad and I would've still lost anyway. And just to prove how oblivious I am to what has been available to teams as the season winds down, I noticed that Vince Young was claimed off of waivers, which probably would have helped me a lot had I not apparently had my head up my ass. Oh, but I did nab Khalil Bell! As you can see, he was a perfect compliment to Marshawn Lynch as both my backs earned solid goose eggs. I haven't had such an accomplishment I wanted noticed less since the time I hit three triple-ones in darts.
Anyway, in the pool I do care about, my 10-6 record was good for 108 points. That was good for sixth place (out of 12) and brought me to 1021 points on the year and still keeps me in second place overall. At 114-62 (.648) on the year, I'm two games better than I was last year at this point in the season and I'm also 47 points ahead of that pace. So that's encouraging, I suppose.
As for the usual group of pickers I follow, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports, Chris Mortensen of ESPN, and both Michael Silver and Charles Robinson of Yahoo all went 12-4 last week to lead the way. The bro-in-law, Jason Cole, Eric Allen, and Merrill Hoge were all right behind at 11-5. Adam Schefter and Mark Schlereth also went 10-6 like me, while Ron Jaworski technically did better at 10-5. Seth Wickersham went 9-7 but Mike Golic ends up the big loser of the week at 8-8.
Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):
There's still five teams who've cost me more than they've earned me, while also keeping last year at this time in mind, I only had three negative teams (Buffalo was even at that point). So still work to be done:
1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS
Last week: Lost to Seattle, 27-17 (+7)
Actual Record: 1-10
My predicted record: 0-11
My record at predicting their record: 10-1
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +113
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +107
Last week was probably their best shot to get a pick to win from me and instead I actually went the right way and stayed with the Seahawks (all three Yahoo experts had the Rams, so crack must've been shared at the office). Now it's this week that represents their new best chance to get another win as they come into Chicago, although they won't be seeing those couple of former players of theirs.
The good news just keeps on coming in Cleveland, where blackouts seem imminent and their receivers resemble a black hole. With Kansas City and Oakland back-to-back, you figure they've got a better chance at winning one more than either of the two teams above them.
Brad Childress doesn't need to explain why he'd be looking at tape of the Saints without them being on the Vikes' regular season schedule, but I'm guessing Minnesota still falls to them in the playoffs.
8. (6) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Last week: Beat Houston, 35-27 (-1)
Actual Record: 11-0
My predicted record: 9-2
My record at predicting their record: 9-2
Points scored for me with wins:+76
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -4
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +72
The Colts are looking to tie New England's league record for consecutive wins this weekend when they play Tennessee—which is coincidentally the last team they lost to.
9. (9) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Last week:Beat Kansas City, 43-14 (+15)
Actual Record: 8-3
My predicted record: 6-5
My record at predicting their record: 9-2
Points scored for me with wins: +58
Points scored for me with losses: +13
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +65
San Diego is one of several teams under pressure to build a new stadium in response to the one now under construction just up the way in La-La Land.
You folks in ATL might recognize that guy over there on the other sideline this weekend.
12. (9) DALLAS COWBOYS
Last week: Beat Oakland, 24-7 (+10)
Actual Record: 8-3
My predicted record: 8-3
My record at predicting their record: 9-2
Points scored for me with wins: +70
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -9
Plus/Minus: +60
Wade Phillips is pulling his best Rodney Dangerfield as the Cowboys get ready to close the season with games against the Giants, Chargers, Saints, and Eagles—three of the final five overall being on the road. It should be interesting.
13. (16) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Last week:Lost to San Diego, 43-14 (+15)
Actual Record: 3-8
My predicted record: 2-9
My record at predicting their record: 8-3
Points scored for me with wins: +1
Points scored for me with losses: +74
Points taken from me with wins: -21
Points taken from me with losses: -2
Plus/Minus: +52
He might not have played the game himself but goddammit, Todd Haley wears shorts all year—EVEN IN THE WINTER.
I've got bigger points than I would've gone on my own with this weekend when Carolina hosts the Bucs, but I'll try to take some comfort in Matt Moore having a win against Tampa in his background—although it's really strange to remember that when these two teams met late in the season last year, they were playing for a division title. How far we've fallen.
16. (13) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Last week:Lost to New Orleans, 38-17 (-5)
Actual Record: 7-4
My predicted record: 10-1
My record at predicting their record: 6-5
Points scored for me with wins: +66
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: -23
Plus/Minus: +40
The shellacking they took from the Saints had to signify the team's not living up to what most of us had hyped them up to be before the season started. If they can turn around their road woes and finish the season strong, I still think they're a formidable opponent in the playoffs. But they better start giving everybody a reason to believe they can go into somebody else's place to move on if anybody's expected to believe they can truly go very far.
I had no idea Brian Ulacher and Michael Silver were such good friends.
21. (20) BALTIMORE RAVENS
Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 20-17 (-2)
Actual Record: 6-5
My predicted record: 8-3
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +43
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -4
Points taken from me with losses: -18
Plus/Minus: +25
Remember when the Ravens started 3-0 and how we were talking then about them? I think they could still get in the playoffs with the schedule they've got left, but anything less than four of the remaining five probably won't cut it.
22. (19) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 31-14 (-8)
Actual Record: 5-6
My predicted record: 5-6
My record at predicting their record: 7-4
Points scored for me with wins: +14
Points scored for me with losses: +25
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: -9
Plus/Minus: +24
While three of their last five are at home and against teams with marginally better records, there's still an awful lot of issues with the Miami defense that prevent them from being a realistic playoff team in my mind. Last week's loss to Buffalo was pivotal.
22. (20) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 20-3 (-3)
Actual Record: 5-6
My predicted record: 2-9
My record at predicting their record: 6-5
Points scored for me with wins: +11
Points scored for me with losses: +33
Points taken from me with wins: -13
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus: +24
Play these last five games like your career depends on them, Mr. Smith, because in all actuality, it probably does.
Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record could be in some serious trouble, but I'll go ahead and say it manages to survive. I suppose if the Titans fall out of the playoff picture, Fisher could be the type of coach that would have a game plan designed to help Johnson break the record even if it didn't necessarily help give the team the best chance to win the game.
26. (24) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Last week:Lost to Baltimore, 20-17 (-2)
Actual Record: 6-5
My predicted record: 10-1
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +44
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -1
Points taken from me with losses: -36
Plus/Minus: +7
Hines Ward sorta thinks Rodney Harrison's kind of a punkass bitch. (Don't quote me on that.)
27. (25) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 20-3 (-3)
Actual Record: 6-5
My predicted record: 6-5
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +24
Points scored for me with losses: +14
Points taken from me with wins: -24
Points taken from me with losses: -10
Plus/Minus: +4
Hosting the Texans in December didn't work out so well for the Jags last time.
I don't know if it competes with helping that woman out along the side of the road after the World Series, but sure was nice of Joe Girardi to take an interest in teaching Mark Sanchez how to slide.
30. (31) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last week: Lost to Tennessee, 20-17 (+4)
Actual Record: 7-4
My predicted record: 5-6
My record at predicting their record: 5-6
Points scored for me with wins: +21
Points scored for me with losses: +6
Points taken from me with wins: -24
Points taken from me with losses: -15
Plus/Minus: -12
I don't know that Arizona needs to panic about not winning their division just yet, but I do know that if Kurt Warner doesn't start feeling better soon, Matt Leinart will not be taking the Redbirds on anything resembling the playoff run they had last year.
Oh Cincinnati, there's hope for you yet: You play Detroit this week. And just think, if too many players aren't hiding concussions and more is being done to ensure they're not being rushed back on to the field, then maybe soon there will be two more games every year that would allow teams like yourself to be able to get out of that miserable hole—or maybe not.
The three-point spot has officially been locked in as a loser this year, but everything above nine's looking good too:
The Yahoo Users scored best of anybody for last week while the score from my picks was third out of the six. But it was less than 10 points separating the best order from the worst, mostly due to very similar picks. This week should be a different story and I've been putting off making my own predictions because about half the schedule is pretty shaky on the certainty in my books—helped none by the Giants, a pick most everyone had, disappointing us all on Thursday. I'm tempted to go all-out and pick eight upsets since I know the leader always picks the favorites.
While I'm thinking about it, here's how my numbers came out for the week and how four other "sheets" would look this week:
Battle of Ohio would have me a little more nervous if Cincy weren't just coming off of a devastating loss that was the result of them essentially giving a game away in teh final seconds. While Cleveland's offense finally got a fast start last week (against the Lions, mind you), they of course upheld their image as a bad team by also finding a way to lose that game. A win here means the Bengals sweep the entire division, an impressive feat that would be a first for the franchise.
15 points San Diego Chargers (7-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (3-7) +43/+7 : +81/75/+6 : -1/+38
Norv Turner finally has the Bolts playing the kind of ball many of their believers had hyped them to do all year. But after the typical slow start, San Diego's finally firing on all gears again and should use Kansas City to take another step closer to another AFC West title.
14 points Atlanta Falcons (5-5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) +21/+26 : +111/85/+26 : 0/+90
The Falcons should benefit from being back in the Georgia Dome after giving a valiant effort in the Big Apple last week. A significantly less talented Bucs squad should help, but I don't rule out Tampa coming out strong and giving Atlanta an initial scare before the Birds fly away with it.
13 points Minnesota Vikings (9-1) over Chicago Bears (4-6) +68/-4 : +61/43/+18 : +22/-7
Breaks my heart a bit to know this is the biggest I've bet against my boys so far this year, but even if Jay Cutler is able to put on a bravura performance and not get completely decimated by Jared Allen all game, I just don't see how the banged-up Bears defense has any hope of slowing down Adrian Peterson or (gulp) MVP candidate Brett Favre.
12 points Philadelphia Eagles (6-4) over Washington Redskins (3-7) +20/+4 : +58/42/+16 : +12/+38
I could've sworn that I read somewhere that Jason Campbell is undefeated in Philadelphia, but that's going to be a might tall order this time around when considering the teammates around him are dropping like flies these days. The Skins will be starting their 10th offensive lineman this year and running back Rock Cartwright is making his first start in nearly six years.
11 points Green Bay Packers(6-4) over Detroit Lions (2-8) +12/-5 : +94/99/-5 : 0/+82
Brian Burke's numbers up there indicate that I've got good reason to think that maybe this could be the week Buffalo gets a win for Perry Fewell at home. Terrell Owens being matched up against a rookie corner doesn't really help either, but the Fins have been winning on the ground in getting back to .500. While the Bills were able to slow down the Jags last week and keep MJD under 100 yards, Miami runs more often for more yards per game.
7 points Seattle Seahawks (3-7) over St. Louis Rams (1-9) +20/+52 : +120/68/+52 : 0/+100
It was tempting to finally weigh this possibly being my first time picking St. Louis in the two years I've been doing weekly predictions. And while the Rams have been oh-so-close these past few weeks, Kyle Boller starting at QB this week doesn't have me brimming with confidence about St. Lou's chances. While the Seahawks were somewhat humiliated in their attempts to run the ball against Minnesota last week, they should stand a better chance against a bottom five Rams defense against the rush.
6 points New York Jets (4-6) over Carolina Panthers (4-6) -13/+2 : +15/5/+10 : +8/+28
One where I just couldn't be happy either way, so it makes sense to go with the home team that's just as desperate for a win as the visitor. The questions surrounding the condition of Julius Peppers—not to mention the loss of linebacker Landon Johnson, the bad knee of DeAngelo Williams, the inconsistency of Jake Delhomme—doesn't help Carolina's case.
5 points New England Patriots (7-3) over New Orleans Saints (10-0) +48/-3 : +46/39/+85 : +88/-2
It should be massively entertaining, no doubt about that. The Patriots are still living down their squandering of an opportunity to knock off the league's other undefeated team, so I'm guessing that New England recognizes capitalizing on the opportunity to end the perfect season hopes of another team will serve as motivation enough to help them put it all behind them and get ready to reassert themselves as one of the favorites in the playoffs.
Arizona has to lose at some point on the road, right? And if Kurt Warner can't go, then it's a done deal in my mind. But even supposing Warner does start and helps the Cards torch the Tennessee pass defense, Arizona's rushing defense—which admittedly ranks in the top ten—will have enough problems with Chris Johnson, let alone Vince Young when he's not busy taking advantage of a weak pass defense (ranks in bottom ten).
3 points Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) over San Francisco 49ers (4-6) +17/-10 : +40/46/-6 : +4/+23
Can you believe the Jaguars are in the playoff picture? Yeah, neither can I. The Niners need a win pretty bad and a West Coast trip is always rough for any visiting team, but I'm opting to give Jacksonville the benefit of the doubt this week—albeit for three points. Make me a believer, Jack.
Initially went with the Ravens, realizing only now that I've bet against the Steelers just once this season—and was wrong about it, too. Seriously, it's essentially a must-have for both teams and while I would like to see Baltimore help muscle the champs out of the playoff picture (I do love underdogs), I have a sneaking suspicion that Big Ben and Pittsburgh finds a way to squeak out a win in a nationally televised game.
1 point Houston Texans (5-5) over Indianapolis Colts (10-0) +2/-6 : -1/71/+70 : +76/-3
Here's to living dangerously, folks. I've got both of the undefeated teams remaining getting their first loss this week. The Colts are talking about wrapping up the division this weekend, but Houston's now back at .500 and talking about trying to get into the playoffs as a wild-card. The Texans have suffered a couple of heartbreakers these past two games, but their luck is bound to change and my guess is that it comes at the expense of an Indianapolis team they've historically played close to with far less riding on the outcome.
It's awfully hard to complain after I went 13-3 on my picks last week, but my 102 points was only good for 8th place (out of 11) since two of those three incorrect predictions cost me my two highest-point values. Of course, because everybody's picks were so similar, I did only finish six points behind the three gentlemen who tied for first. And luckily for me, I remain in second for the year overall with 913 points. That's now 34 points behind first place, but 15 points ahead of third.
Special mention needs to be made of Marshawn Lynch, whose negative one fantasy point total meant that I would have, in fact, been better off leaving the injured Michael Turner in my lineup—despite the fact that he didn't play. I'd bemoan my fantasy football fate more if I wasn't currently in second in the NBA fantasy league I'm in and both of my fantasy hockey teams are currently in first. Yeah, so suck it.
For the first time in what seems like too long, I can say my straight-up score for the week was the best of the bunch as the bro-in-law, Mike Golic of ESPN, and Charles Robinson and Michael Silver of Yahoo were the only others to go 13-3. Merrill Hoge, Adam Schefter, and Jason Cole all went 12-4, while Eric Allen, Chris Mortensen, Mark Schlereth, Seth Wickersham, and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports tied for the still-somewhat-respectable mark of 11-5 that constitutes the week's low—although Ron Jaworski presumably would've gone with the Texans on Monday and joined them, but instead finished 11-4.
Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):
We've still got five teams that are in the red for the year, but after a 13-3 week, that means 26 of the teams went up. Here's where they all stand now heading into Week 12:
1. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS
Last week: Lost to Arizona, 21-13 (+8)
Actual Record: 1-9
My predicted record: 0-10
My record at predicting their record: 9-1
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +106
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +100
Did you catch (pun intended) Brandon Gibson's impressive stat last weekend? The Rams wide receiver tied Wes Welker for most times targeted in Week 11, each with 17. But Welker had 15 catches. Gibson? Five. If you want to place the blame on Marc Bulger, that's fine. He's out now and Kyle Boller gets to step in to help the Rams crawl across the finish line this year.
Is it possible the Browns really got the better of that Braylon Edwards trade?
5. (3) DETROIT LIONS
Last week: Beat Cleveland, 38-37 (+6)
Actual Record: 2-8
My predicted record: 2-8
My record at predicting their record: 8-2
Points scored for me with wins: +6
Points scored for me with losses: +90
Points taken from me with wins: -8
Points taken from me with losses: -6
Plus/Minus: +82
I'm not surprised so much by Matthew Stafford being named NFC Offensive Player of the Week as I am that his jersey from that game was sent to the Hall of Fame.
Tom Coughlin should have a better Thanksgiving knowing he won't be getting any more threatening letters from crazy people in Philly (I know, I know ... "As opposed to the non-crazy people in Philly, D. Rock?").
14. (19) BUFFALO BILLS
Last week: Lost to Jacksonville, 18-15 (+10)
Actual Record: 3-7
My predicted record: 2-8
My record at predicting their record: 7-3
Points scored for me with wins: +10
Points scored for me with losses: +57
Points taken from me with wins: -18
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus:+42
I would think Mike Shanahan has to be encouraged if he spent seven hours talking about the Bills head coaching job.
The Panthers have the most difficult remaining schedule of any team still hoping for a playoff spot, but I imagine this will continue to be repeated even after they've been mathematically eliminated.
18. (10) OAKLAND RAIDERS
Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 20-17 (-15)
Actual Record: 3-7
My predicted record: 1-9
My record at predicting their record: 8-2
Points scored for me with wins: +4
Points scored for me with losses: +59
Points taken from me with wins: -29
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +34
The Raiders had a huge upset last week, so you know what that means: They'll probably go right back to sucking.
Mike Singletary isn't talking about making any changes and one columnist makes a case for why the Niners shouldn't make any to their coaching staff, even if San Fran misses the playoffs once again.
22. (22) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Last week: Beat Chicago, 24-20 (+2)
Actual Record: 6-4
My predicted record: 7-3
My record at predicting their record: 7-3
Points scored for me with wins: +39
Points scored for me with losses: +9
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -19
Plus/Minus: +24
Remember that Michael Vick guy? Somebody thinks Philly can still do something with him.
23. (24) CHICAGO BEARS
Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 24-20 (+2)
Actual Record: 4-6
My predicted record: 8-2
My record at predicting their record: 4-6
Points scored for me with wins: +33
Points scored for me with losses: +2
Points taken from me with wins: -9
Points taken from me with losses: -11
Plus/Minus: +15
Bears brass denies inevitable reports about the team making initial inquiries toward some of the big head coaching names out there.
24. (20) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Last week:Lost to Kansas City, 27-24 (-16)
Actual Record: 6-4
My predicted record: 9-1
My record at predicting their record: 5-5
Points scored for me with wins: +44
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -1
Points taken from me with losses: -34
Plus/Minus: +9
Hey, even if Mike Tomlin can't get the Steelers into the playoffs this year, he did get a mention on "House."
I thought I said something about it earlier this season, but nothing's coming up in a search for it, so let me ask it now: Does Twitter ever not lead to trouble?
28. (29) DENVER BRONCOS
Last week: Lost to San Diego, 32-3 (+5)
Actual Record: 6-4
My predicted record: 7-3
My record at predicting their record: 5-5
Points scored for me with wins:+15
Points scored for me with losses: +5
Points taken from me with wins: -10
Points taken from me with losses: -14
Plus/Minus: -4
After dropping four straight and losing control of the AFC West, the Broncos players are meeting without their coaches.
I went and picked up Matt Leinart for my fantasy team, only to find out that Kurt Warner plans on playing Sunday—presumably because Jesus wants it that way.
32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Last week: Lost to Oakland, 20-17 (-15)
Actual Record: 7-3
My predicted record: 4-6
My record at predicting their record: 1-9
Points scored for me with wins: +10
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -37
Points taken from me with losses: -28
Plus/Minus: -55
Unbelievable. I thought the team could most certainly move swiftly out of their nearly season-long residence in the cellar, but now I fear that it's practically hopeless they turn out a positive number for me by the end of the year.
I had originally hoped to squeeze in all my picks before the holiday—maybe even go strictly by the numbers like I did Thanksgiving weekend last year, you know, when I won—but those last five this time around are still being decided. And I can't put my faith in what the numbers spit up this week without a few modifications (you'll see ...).
Still, I did have to get tomorrow's games in there, so here's what I've got:
11 points Green Bay Packers(6-4) over Detroit Lions (2-8) +12/-5 : +94/99/-5 : 0/+82
Both teams are dealing with their share of injuries, but no Calvin Johnson and no Matthew Stafford equates to no chance for the Lions—no matter who's missing from Green Bay's defense.
I'd be more worried about the Raiders if the game weren't so important to Dallas. Tony Romo's 3-0 record on the holiday doesn't hurt either.
9 points New York Giants (6-4) over Denver Broncos (6-4) +42/0 : +43/38/-5 : +1/-5
Riskiest pick of the day, but the Giants at least regained a little bit of their footing by ending their four-game losing streak while Denver's still in the midst of a freefall.
So as it is right now, the Blackhawks are exactly where I said they'd be at the end of the year—which is to say first in their division and second in the conference. In all honesty, however, I expected the start to be a little slower, what with Hossa not on the ice yet.
Instead, much to my pleasant surprise, the team has come out and played lights out most every time I've watched them. Their longest losing streak of the season so far hasn't been but a mere two games while right now they're enjoying a seven-game winning streak—the last three of those all coming on the road during the typically not-so-hot "Circus Trip" (it appears the Bulls—whom we'll get to later—are upholding the traditionally disappointing results of a fortnight-long road trip).
Perhaps best of all would be the recent report that the big three of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Kieth would ALL be staying in Chicago. While that's not official yet and it's fair to wonder what contracts would have to be moved in order to finally put this concern to rest, the bottom line remains that there truly is not time like right now for this team. Whatever your feelings on whom is expendable and whom is not among those contracts, this is the one year you have all the guys in one place, so you might as well make the most of it.
Our concerns heading into this season had primarily been with the goaltending, but that doesn't seem to be bothering me too much of late. Cristobal Huet has been fine so far but even rookie goalie Antti Niemi has been a pleasant surprise, already having recorded two shutouts this season. (Longtime Devil center John Madden is certainly proving to be as equally pleasant a surprise in his first year as a Hawk.)
So what's stopping Chicago from hoisting the Stanley Cup? Well, there's still three more quarters of a season yet to come, so there's the usual concerns about somebody getting hurt. And of course we still haven't seen how Hossa will fit in best among the lines Coach Q will more than likely be toying with in the coming weeks, but both of those are very minor points of contention. What we have right now one-fourth of the way into the NHL season is a lot of cause for optimism among the hockey fans in Chicago, because certainly we're suffering from "high-class problems" that are typically the minor annoyances from perennial contenders.
And I'm fairly confident that we're not going to be seeing a more memorable game though (at least as far as the regular season goes) than the mid-October rally from five goals down to beat the Flames (Puck Daddy included it as No. 8 on the best games of the decade). Forgive me as I get reacquainted with the feeling of being out in front, but I think I could get used to this.
Going by the spread would've been the best score last week, as my picks were worth only 77 points and finished only better than my own numbers. Let's hope for better luck this week, but you'll probably notice that there isn't much variety among these picks:
16 points Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) +26/-1 : +80/82/-2 : -1/+54
Pressure's on Pittsburgh to keep pace with the Bengals now that they're essentially two behind in the division after getting swept for the season. Kansas City's already sputtering offense isn't likely to improve this week now that the team's number one receiver is sitting out the next four weeks.
The Bengals have had problems in Oakland in the past, but so had everybody before this year's Raiders. And I think I've learned my lesson that these are not the usual Bungles we've grown accustomed to.
14 points New Orleans Saints (9-0) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) +74/-2 : +150/152/-2 : 0/+76
It's just too hard for me to believe the Saints can really run the table, but I don't have the guts to call an upset here. I think Tampa can certainly give them problems like N'awlins has been having in recent weeks but at the end of the day, I'll stay with the Saints.
Banged-up Seahawks will never find a groove in the Metrodome—or a way to stop Adrian Peterson.
12 points New England Patriots (6-3) over New York Jets (4-5) +36/-3 : +26/42/-16 : -13/-10
The Jets aren't talking quite as tough as the last time these two teams met, and Bill Belichick would probably help put a lot of the criticism of last week's decision behind him by pummeling Rex Ryan's squad.
11 points Dallas Cowboys (6-3) over Washington Redskins (3-6) +40/-1 : +67/56/+11 : +12/+27
The first visit to their new stadium by perhaps their biggest rival in the division is not the type of game the Cowboys are bound to take lightly. The NFL owes them a few calls after last week's debacle too.
Tempting to think the new head coach results in an immediate upset, but it's more realistic to think the mighty MJD runs up the numbers as a way of making it up to his fantasy owners for taking that knee last week.
9 points Green Bay Packers(5-4) over San Francisco 49ers (4-5) +3/-5 : +17/18/-1 : +4/+14
The Pack is back in the playoff race with last week's win while the Niners defense isn't likely to get spotted five interceptions again.
8 points Arizona Cardinals (6-3) over St. Louis Rams (1-8) -2/-22 : +90/112/-22 : 0/+92
I'm still not totally sold on the Cards, but chances are that this should be another glorious return to St. Lou for Kurt Warner.
7 points New York Giants (5-4) over Atlanta Falcons (5-4) +35/0 : +56/37/+19 : +21/+19
Same records, but the Giants have been spending two weeks waiting for this game. Eli & Co. need it more, period. Anybody afraid of dealing with the dreaded Atlanta media?
6 points
Detroit Lions (1-8) over Cleveland Browns (1-8) -6/+82 : +71/11/+82 : 0/+77
My sympathy to anyone forced to actually watch this.
5 points San Diego Chargers (6-3) over Denver Broncos (6-3) +38/+7 : +28/20/+8 : +1/-10
Two teams headed in different directions and I'll take the Chargers while they're on the rise. The run at the division was fun while it lasted, Denver.
4 points Indianapolis Colts (9-0) over Baltimore Ravens (5-4) +72/-3 : +70/48/+22 : +25/-2
If Terrell Suggs weren't out, I'd probably go the other way. But instead I'm going to hold off on picking against Indy again.
3 points Carolina Panthers (4-5) over Miami Dolphins (4-5) +11/+28 : +33/8/+41 : +13/+22 2 points Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) over Chicago Bears (4-5) +18/+4 : +9/17/+26 : +22/-9
I'm tired of being disappointed by the Bears this year (for now ... bound to change next week). 1 point Tennessee Titans (3-6) over Houston Texans (5-4) -11/+16 : -4/5/+1 : +2/-7
Call me crazy. Vince Young's been responsible with the ball in his first three games back and now in Texas with the aid of teammates looking to avenge their home opener loss, the Titans get some big plays from him when not riding Chris Johnson to an upset.
I made the most of those two extra games last week in a way, going 8-7 with my picks last week and finally finishing with a winning record after two straight 6-7 weeks. No more byes for the remainder of the season, which I actually think should help me since it has become apparent that my standing in my pools this year is entirely because of my point allocation and not my straight-up prediction ability. My 91-53 mark on the year is second-worst in the Yahoo pool I'm in and yet I'm in third place.
As for the other pool in which I regularly reference (the bigger one, we'll call it), my score of 77 points last week was good for 9th place out of 13. My 811 points on the year still has me in second place for the overall race, but I'm now 30 points behind the leader and only eight points ahead of third place. So I'll need some luck to really go my way over the final weeks to make a push for first.
I suppose I could still get into the playoffs in fantasy football, but I'm pretty sure that mathematical elimination is coming for me in the near future after getting trounced last weekend. This week I'll be playing the resident cellar-dweller in that league in a battle I've said is the equivalent of the Browns-Lions game this weekend.
In the straight-up comparisons here, Merrill Hoge from ESPN stayed hot and posted an 11-4 mark along with Seth Wickersham. Michael Silver from Yahoo finished right behind them at 10-5. Pete Prisco from CBS Sports as well as Eric Allen and Adam Schefter finished 9-6. Jason Cole, Charles Robinson, Mike Golic, Chris Mortensen and Mark Schlereth all shared the same 8-7 score I had. Ron Jaworski's 8-6 mark is technically a better percentage than that last group, but we'll leave his score here for being a pud. And poor bro-in-law brings up the rear this week with the only losing mark of 7-8.
Now, on the year (numbers in parentheses still indicating where the dude stood in the rankings last week):
And now pressure's on me to go against the right grains if I want to finish atop that list. Still seven weeks to go, so nothing's impossible here. Still, when looking over my Power Rankings, it's obvious that the top ten teams scoring the highest for me are all effectively safe choices as either consistent winners or losers. And I no longer have any team with which my predictions are unblemished, although I have yet to pick against the Giants for one reason or another.
Anyway, here's how the 32 teams in the league are doing for me this year:
Cleveland is certainly not looking any better for getting a prediction to win either, even though there's a good amount of softies left on their schedule with a visit to Detroit this week and the 2-7 Chiefs followed by the 2-7 Raiders around Christmas. But you might notice a pattern in where the Browns find themselves on those more traditional Power Rankings around the league. The Cleveland offense is setting all new sorts of records for futility as it's been more than a full year since either a Browns running back or wide receiver scored a touchdown.
3. (3) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Last week:Lost to Miami, 25-23 (+12)
Actual Record: 1-8
My predicted record: 0-9
My record at predicting their record: 8-1
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +89
Points taken from me with wins: -13
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +76
Poor Tampa Bay has to try and stop the undefeated Saints this week—and then gets to travel to Louisiana to play them again five weeks after that. They're already focusing on using the draft to help rebuild an inept defense—one their rookie coach didn't give much of a vote of confidence to by saying he needs bigger guys. But Josh Freeman's at least been giving fans a glimpse of hope.
3. (5) DETROIT LIONS
Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 27-10 (+14)
Actual Record: 1-8
My predicted record: 1-8
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: 0
Points scored for me with losses: +90
Points taken from me with wins: -8
Points taken from me with losses: -6
Plus/Minus: +76
The latest and perhaps saddest chapter in their historic rivalry with the Browns this weekend could represent the team's best chance to win a game for the rest of the year. Needless to say, it's already been blacked out.
5. (6) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Last week: Beat St. Louis, 28-23 (+15)
Actual Record: 9-0
My predicted record: 7-2
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +74
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -2
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +72
You have to take every game seriously when you're trying to go undefeated. With last week's five-point win over the one-win Rams being keyed by the two scores they got from Reggie Bush, how much of a concern is it that they might not have him this Sunday in Tampa?
6. (2) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Last week: Beat New England, 35-34 (-3)
Actual Record: 9-0
My predicted record: 8-1
My record at predicting their record: 8-1
Points scored for me with wins:+72
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +69
Looks to me like the Colts can begin counting me in for thinking they can run the regular season just as soon as they win these next two games—both of which are on the road. I can only assume that my pessimism is the result of a media bias against Indy.
Unlike the previous train wrecks on this list, the Chiefs have already gotten two win predictions out of me. Cleveland appears to be the next best opportunity for them to do well, which is coincidentally when they'll be getting their top wide receiver back from serving a four-game suspension. Between now and then? Grab more wrestlers, I guess.
9. (15) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Last week: Beat Detroit, 27-10 (+14)
Actual Record: 8-1
My predicted record: 6-3
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +55
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -8
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +51
Playing the Seahawks calls attention to the "poison pills" involved in NFL contracts, expected “to be one of many contentious issues” when that collective bargaining agreement gets worked out. Maybe by then the Vikings will have figured out if they're staying in the Metrodome.
10. (10) OAKLAND RAIDERS
Last week: Lost to Kansas City, 16-10 (+1)
Actual Record: 2-7
My predicted record: 1-8
My record at predicting their record: 8-1
Points scored for me with wins: +4
Points scored for me with losses: +59
Points taken from me with wins: -14
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +49
JaMarcus Russell can grab a seat for now, but let's not assume the Raiders have completely given up on him. Even Ochocinco's got his back, blaming it on Russell's supporting cast. With only two exceptions, the schedule's got them playing clubs with winning records for the rest of the year.
11. (14) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Last week:Beat Philadelphia, 31-23 (+4)
Actual Record: 6-3
My predicted record: 4-5
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +38
Points scored for me with losses: +13
Points taken from me with wins: -6
Points taken from me with losses: 0
Plus/Minus: +45
They didn't wait until the last game of the year to take over the division, but they'll have to do it by beating the Broncos in Denver this time around. Hopefully the lawsuits from crazy skanks can be shrugged off.
12. (12) ATLANTA FALCONS
Last week: Lost to Carolina, 28-19 (-5)
Actual Record: 5-4
My predicted record: 5-4
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +26
Points scored for me with losses: +22
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: -5
Plus/Minus: +40
They don't seem like such a lock for the playoffs anymore (basically, that's the same for any team not leading their division), and you can always spot the guy who's on my fantasy team when he goes down with an injury. How long is he out for? Oh, could be six weeks, but better keep him in the lineup because he ... might play?
13. (9) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Last week: Beat Denver, 27-17 (-11)
Actual Record: 3-6
My predicted record: 5-4
My record at predicting their record: 6-3
Points scored for me with wins: +25
Points scored for me with losses: +38
Points taken from me with wins:-11
Points taken from me with losses: -13
Plus/Minus: +39
Now that the Redskins don't have to worry about going to the Supreme Court to defend their names, sure you can bring those signs to their games again.
13. (10) DALLAS COWBOYS
Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 17-7 (-9)
Actual Record: 6-3
My predicted record: 6-3
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +49
Points scored for me with losses: +4
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -9
Plus/Minus: +39
How bad was the officiating at Lambeau? I actually sympathize with the Cowboys on both of those points of contention. One had a particularly devastating effect that dramatically changed the game. Oh and Roy Williams, isn't off the hook here either. You, sir, have been calledout.
13. (13) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Last week: Beat Atlanta, 28-19 (-5)
Actual Record: 4-5
My predicted record: 3-6
My record at predicting their record: 6-3
Points scored for me with wins: +18
Points scored for me with losses: +41
Points taken from me with wins: -13
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus: +39
Nobody can get over those final four games they've got this year (in New England, Minnesota comes to town, at the Giants, and finish with the Saints at home), and already being five back in the division leaves the only viable option pretty much being a wild card. That means they must certainly beat the three teams they play before that four-game stretch, starting with a Miami team of the same record that a runs an offensive style Carolina should know pretty well considering that they were the ones where Dan Henning started doing the wildcat.
16. (17) NEW YORK GIANTS
Last week: BYE
Actual Record: 5-4
My predicted record: 9-0
My record at predicting their record: 5-4
Points scored for me with wins: +55
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: 0
Points taken from me with losses: -20
Plus/Minus: +35
They limped into their bye week on a four-game losing streak and I'm still waiting to pick them to lose. My latest excuse not to will probably have something to do with the return of Aaron Ross.
16. (19) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 25-23 (+12)
Actual Record: 4-5
My predicted record: 4-5
My record at predicting their record: 7-2
Points scored for me with wins: +14
Points scored for me with losses: +25
Points taken from me with wins: -3
Points taken from me with losses: -1
Plus/Minus: +35
The loss of Ronnie Brown will probably be the difference between making the playoffs or not.
"You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash."
Now doing the placekicking: Billy Cundiff. Oh, and that sound you hear is Matt Stover and every Colts fan laughing at you, Baltimore.
22. (22) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Last week: Lost to San Diego, 16-0 (+4)
Actual Record: 5-4
My predicted record: 6-3
My record at predicting their record: 6-3
Points scored for me with wins: +37
Points scored for me with losses: +9
Points taken from me with wins: -5
Points taken from me with losses: -19
Plus/Minus: +22
Anybody else get the feeling that Philly will hang around just enough to get a wild card and then Brian Westbrook will still come back—despite them saying now that he might not—to help them run through the playoffs? Just me trying to make my pre-season picks work out? Possibly.
23. (21) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Last week: Beat Chicago, 10-6 (-2)
Actual Record: 4-5
My predicted record: 2-7
My record at predicting their record: 5-4
Points scored for me with wins: +11
Points scored for me with losses: +24
Points taken from me with wins: -10
Points taken from me with losses: -7
Plus/Minus: +18
After an ugly win over the next team down here, I think it's perfectly justified to ask what kind of team you're supposed to be expecting. I haven't given the Niners much benefit of the doubt this year, but I'm not seeing much that makes me want to change my mind about it either. Seems to me that I got burned by doubting them early, but now they've cooled off considerably.
They've had a knack for doing the opposite of what I've expected, but one scribe thinks we may have saw a defining moment in the career of Aaron Rodgers during the (horribly, horribly officiated) Dallas game.
Let's see: Two-game lead in the division, 1-8 St. Louis this week, and only two more opponents with winning records right now—not to mention another game against the 1-8 Rams, one week after going to 1-8 Detroit. Yes, you can start talking about the playoffs. I still hope you choke.
32. (32) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Last week: Beat Pittsburgh, 18-12 (-6)
Actual Record: 7-2
My predicted record: 3-6
My record at predicting their record: 1-8
Points scored for me with wins: +10
Points scored for me with losses: 0
Points taken from me with wins: -37
Points taken from me with losses: -13
Plus/Minus: -40
I did give the Bengals a shout-out of sorts over on the Tumblr (itreallywasaverygoodweekoverthere), but I see them rising through the ranks once again with the schedule they've got coming up—and even Minnesota and San Diego don't strike me as that daunting for this team anymore.
Severe slide on two-point games continue after I believe I started 6-0 in that category. But I am getting close to locking in some winning records on the year:
Having just finished my numbers, this was supposed to be my lowest-ranked game of the week, but I've put three on it instead—not to mention having gone against the winner my numbers would indicate I should pick. Truth is, both teams thrive on running the ball but the Fins'll have to do it without Ronnie Brown. Miami's pass defense is vulnerable too (even with the returning Joey Porter) and I like the Panthers to (finally) be able to use Steve Smith to create the big plays that make the difference.
Big thanks to Steve-O for giving me a heads up to a mathematical error last weekend that originally had the Redskins supposedly favored in my numbers for my picks last week. Indeed, I erred in calculating the points Washington had earned me when picked to win and when adjusted, the Falcons indeed were the logical choice. It didn't affect all that much since the picks of Brian Burke, the Yahoo Users and my own numbers, which all finished with exactly the same score while Wunderdog was only one point behind. All of them would have finished fifth in the pool I'm in, and as for what I ultimately went with myself, well ... not very good.
That said, Steve-O also made the logical inquiry as to why I don't use the Vegas spread. I indeed used the spread from the Chicago Tribune earlier in the year as a sort of guide, but there's a variety of lines with very slight differences—but differences all the same. Still, I've opted to include the spread cited by Pro Football Weekly. So now I've got five sets of picks to compare myself to:
Like I said, I've had a real knack for predicting the exact opposite of what actually occurs ("I'm willing to gamble two measly points on Jay Cutler's arm essentially carrying Chicago to victory at Candlestick"), so I'm now going to guess as to how the picks I'll be submitting will come back to haunt me instead. I figure that at least that way I'll be able to say I was right about something:
15 points New Orleans Saints (8-0) over St. Louis Rams (1-7) +59/-2 : +136/138/-2 : 0/+77
Maybe the Rams will thrive on not being taken seriously.
14 points Minnesota Vikings (7-1) over Detroit Lions (1-7) +41/-4 : +109/119/-10 : -6/+68
I seem to recall Detroit giving the Vikings problems the past few times they played. Maybe this will be the time they actually hang on to an early lead.
Didn't Cleveland beat the undefeated-at-the-time Giants the last time they hosted a nationally televised night game? Even if Browns fans follow through with the planned protest of not being seated for kickoff, perhaps they can create that type of environment again.
12 points Miami Dolphins (3-5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) +1/+22 : +65/43/+22 : 0/+64
The battle for Florida could prove to be just the sort of stage that's meaningless to the nation but meaningful to locals that allows Josh Freeman to steal the show for a second straight week.
11 points Denver Broncos (6-2) over Washington Redskins (2-6) +12/-10 : +50/48/+2 : +12/+38
Denver's fast start is now a two-game losing streak with their lead in the AFC West down to one game. They might not wait until the end of the season to choke away the division this year.
The Cards might continue their baffling inability to take advantage of playing in front of their own fans. Kurt Warner might forget one of his daily prayers and be out of whack.
7 points New York Jets (4-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) -6/-10 : -9/6/-3 : +7/-3
It's the Jags. Nothing involving them surprises me anymore. 6 points Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) over Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) +32/-1 : +1/5/-4 : -3/-31
Perhaps the Bengals could actually sweep all three of their AFC North rivals for the first time since ... well, has that ever happened?
5 points Atlanta Falcons (5-3) over Carolina Panthers (3-5) +26/+19 : +60/30/+30 : +11/+34
John Fox could get his team to take it to another level against a division rival at home. The Falcons might continue their slide out of the playoff picture.
4 points San Diego Chargers (5-3) over Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) +34/+7 : +34/9/+25 : +18/0
The Eagles could finally unveil a revamped wildcat formation that makes Michael Vick a star again and creates the biggest story of the week.
3 points New England Patriots (6-2) over Indianapolis Colts (8-0) +39/-3 : +39/30/+69 : +72/0
Peyton Manning might finally have the Pats' number and be driven enough to one-up the New England franchise by not only getting a perfect season, but actually winning the big game at the end.
2 points Chicago Bears (4-5) over San Francisco 49ers (4-5) +24/-9 : +40/45/-5 : +4/+16 1 point Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) over Oakland Raiders (2-6) -2/+54 : +42/16/+58 : +4/+44
The Chiefs newly developed long-term strategy could include trying to secure the first overall draft pick for next year and being privately heartbroken about losing Larry Johnson might help them lose every remaining game on their schedule.
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