I was initially going to subtitle this year's picks, "Who Will The Heat Beat This Year?" But truth be told, there's just so many things yet to be determined this year. Any number of rosters could look completely different by year's end. In addition to the fact that LeBron James is set to once again become a free agent once the season concludes, there will also be an NBA Draft class that is sure to make teams outside the playoff picture consider trading away assets to stockpile more picks. And while a threpeat isn't unheard of in the NBA, four consecutive Finals appearances is rather rare.
In addition to the usual plethora of new faces in new places, there's questions about whether Pau Gasol ends the year as a Laker. What about Rajon Rondo? DeMarcus Cousins? A whole number of players could be likely to be moved, and a whole number of teams thinking they're only one piece away from contending—especially in the Western Conference—means that whatever I type now, I'm incredibly likely to have a completely different feeling come April about which team hoists the Larry O'Brien in June.
I could really go balls out and predict who's going to end up where based on trades that haven't happened, but for now, this year's predictions represent my opinion based on the rosters as presently constructed. Which is to say that I'm nowhere near as confident as I might've been, say, last year.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
The Nets are going to be fascinating little experiment, what with the addition of proven championship-winning veterans working under a first-year coach. While I was intially tempted to dismiss Jason Kidd as a disaster waiting to happen, Lawrence Frank being an assistant is a really, really smart move. As a result, I think the Nets should outclass an otherwise pretty lackluster division. The Knicks will have a hot streak or two, but I'm ultimately guessing they regress this year. My third place teams in many of these divisions are the ones I'm least comfortable with, and Toronto is probably bound to throw off my predicted order here. It's possible that the Raptors make the playoffs this year, but it's also possible that they trade away assets and attempt to rebuild somewhat through the draft in the offseason. The start for them should be key. I am expecting Rondo to be dealt at some point before the deadline so Brad Stevens can develop younger talent, but as stripped as Boston is and will be, they certainly can't be as bad as the Sixers will be this year. Put my money down on Philadelphia having the most lottery balls come June and possibly contendning for setting a new mark for futility.
Central
Indiana Pacers
Chicago Bulls
Detroit Pistons
Milwaukee Bucks
Cleveland Cavaliers
This is probably the toughest division to pick a winner for this year, as the Pacers and the Bulls should both be contedning for a top spot in the Eastern Conference all year long. What's mroe, both Tom Thibodeau and Frank Vogel will be playing to win every single game all season. Ultimately, I just think Indiana is the deeper team and wins the division by a narrow margin. Detroit should be able to get back to the playoffs this year (assuming they don't enter the trade market), as the Pistons frontcourt will propose a lot of challenges for opponents. The backcourt? Well, that might be what does them in. The Bucks could also very well be in playoff contention, and hell, maybe even the Cavs can enter the discussion. Still, in a division that could feasibly see all five teams make the playoffs, I think the top four here all get in while Cleveland pins its hopes on getting LeBron to come back to Ohio next year (which he won't).
Southeast
Miami Heat
Washington Wizards
Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats
Orlando Magic
As vulnerable as you want to think the Heat are this year, it's going to take a string of devastating injuries in order for them not to win this woeful division. I'm going to guess that Washington has enough of the pieces necessary to finish second (and the recent acquisition of Marcin Gortat demonstrates they're pushing to get back to the playoffs), but again, I could really see things going either way for the Hawks. They could very well finish as high as second here, or they could end up trading pieces to get draft picks and finish lower. However, I'm guessing that Atlanta finishes above the ever slowly improving Charlotte not-yet-Hornets, and nobody does worse than the Lottery-contending Magic team that again seems bound to trade away assets in hopes of securing yet another top pick.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder
Minnesota Timberwolves
Denver Nuggets
Portland Trailblazers
Utah Jazz
It's terribly sad to recall how just a few years ago I was thinking Heat-Thunder could become this generation's Celtics-Lakers. Instead, the James Harden trade seems to have backfired and now rumors abound that remaining stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will be gone as soon as their contracts are up. Still, as far this year goes, I fully expect Durant to be as dominant as ever. I also wouldn't rule out OKC making a move to try and get back to the Finals. Either way, I think they'll still be the class of the divsion. I'm picking the Wolves second here under the assumption that they'll stay healthy—and won't trade away Kevin Love (c'mon Chicago ...). The Nuggets may still be able to finish second, but I think the loss of Igudola and a new coach will both make Denver significantly less succesful than last year. Portland should once again be sniffing around the playoffs and could exceed my expectations, but I feel perhaps most comfortable having the Jazz in the cellar here.
Pacific
Los Angeles Clippers
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
Sacramento Kings
Phoenix Suns
I have routinely dismissed the Clippers because of Vinny Del Negro, but this year they not only went out and got a new coach but one of the only four active coaches who has won a title. The difference, I suspect, will be huge. The Warriors should build on last year's successful playoff run, but there's still some uncertainty about how that roster's going to work. It's a two-horse race in that sense, with likely a pretty large drop-off between second and third—a place I suspect will be taken by a woeful Lakers squad. I'd be stunned if a teamt that's basically going to clear out all of their cap space next season doesn't get rid of Pau Gasol at some point this year and I've got doubts about how successful Kobe will be in returning. The Kings could very well leapfrog L.A. for third, but nothing beyond that. Again, if anything's certain here, it's last place. And the Suns are already making their bid for the top spot in next year's draft.
Southwest
San Antonio Spurs
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans Pelicans
This is probably the toughest call in the West, but I cannot bet against the Spurs winning the division. The Rockets should certainly give San Antonio a run for their money, and even teh Grizzlies could be a factor—although I think the window for Memphis has essentially closed and they're siomply to slow to keep up with most every other team in the NBA. The Mavericks and the
NBA Playoffs Opening Round
#1 Heat over #8 Bucks in 4 games
#2 Pacers over #7 Wizards in 4 games
#3 Bulls over #6 Pistons in 5 games
#4 Nets over #5 Knicks in 6 games
#1 Thunder over #8 Nuggets in 5 games
#2 Clippers over #7 Timberwolves in 5 games
#3 Spurs over #6 Grizzlies in 5 games
#5 Rockets over #4 Warriors in 7 games
Conference Semifinals
#1 Heat over #4 Nets in 6 games
#2 Pacers over #3 Bulls in 7 games
#1 Thunder over #5 Rockets in 6 games
#2 Clippers over #3 Spurs in 7 games
Conference Finals
#1 Heat over #2 Pacers in 6 games
#2 Clippers over #1 Thunder in 6 games
2014 NBA Finals
Miami Heat over Los Angeles Clippers in 6 games
So like I said, I'm not ruling out that I'm going to have a different opinion by the start of the playoffs, but as it stands right now, I just simply still do not see anybody beating the Heat this year. And right now I'm buying biggest on the Clippers. One big trade might change everything, but for now I'll just say that hopefully Miami fans will remember not to leave early during any games in the Finals this year.
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