Thursday, January 07, 2016

Wild Card Picks: So Many Teams "Nobody Wants to Play"

Well, looks like we already know I won't be right about the predicted Super Bowl winner this year. Hell, I wasn't right about much at all.

But hey, the Colts that so many people picked to get to the Super Bowl didn't make the playoffs either.

I only had one of the eight division winners right this year (must be a record low) and a mere eight of the 32 teams in the correct final standing spot with and absolutely no divisions perfectly predicted but two divisions in which I got none of the four teams right. Additionally, I only had half of this year's playoff teams right, with my seeding of the Patriots being second the only correct call.

So all in all, a pretty awful year thus far. Putting on my fan's hat perspective for a second, I was somewhat able to relax and enjoy games more this year by declining to participate in any fantasy football leagues. Not once did I regret that decision. While I did download the DraftKings and FanDuel apps, I've never made my initial deposit to play either—and the recent scandal didn't do much to make me reconsider either.

The John Oliver segment on fantasy sports was, of course, brilliant:



I say "somewhat able to relax" because there's never any real moment of pure relaxation in our home now that the child is 19 months old and walking, climbing, and just generally causing trouble every hour of the day she isn't asleep. I don't know how much time I'll actually be able to dedicate to the playoffs, but here's to hoping for the best.

Anyway, the subtitle of this post concerns how wide open this year's playoffs may actually be. Perhaps more so in the AFC than the NFC, but as soon as this round, we're already being treated to no less than three teams that I've heard commentators or pundits refer to as clubs that "nobody wants to play" over the past few weeks.

Again, here's a link to see what other experts are picking this round. My picks are, as almost always, in descending order of confidence: 

Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings

Seattle became the team "nobody wants to play" over recent weeks. For most of the first half of the season, it looked like the Seahawks were showing the signs of a Super Bowl slump after last year's heartbreaking defeat—in the second consecutive such appearance. So while part of me believes that Seattle's not going to make three straight title appearances, it's also hard not to forget the "Four Falls of Buffalo" documentary I recently watched about the four consecutive title game appearances the Bills just made. Of course, the Seahawks have at least already won one. While that Vikings defense is indeed loaded with talent and Adrian Peterson can always be a potential game-changer, I believe experience will give Seattle the edge over Minnesota in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans

After closing out the season with a staggering 10 wins in a row, the Chiefs are of course considered by many to be a team "nobody wants to play." Kansas City allowed the third-fewest points per game this season while committing the second-fewest turnovers. There's little doubt about the defense of either of these teams, but I think the Chiefs have the edge on the offensive side of the ball because of the inconsistency at QB that has plagued the Texans for what seems like several years. I not only expect Kansas City to be able to get to the Houston quarterback much more often, but Alex Smith seems less likely to break his own team's back with mistakes when he's under pressure. This may not be the highest-scoring game of the weekend, but I'm guessing the Chiefs will manufacture enough points to walk away winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals

The last team "nobody wants to play" are the Steelers I originally had winning the AFC. I still feel pretty good about that because the offense has more than lived up to the preseason hype. Then again, here are the same Bengals I feared would end up winning this division having won the division. And Cincy looked as impressive as ever at multiple points throughout the year. The few times they didn't? Mostly nationally-televised games, of course. While part of me would like to see the Bengals finally get over that playoff hump that has tripped them for oh so many years now, I just can't help but think that Pittsburgh is ready to essentially score at will. I'm preparing for what could potentially be the deep run I was expecting from the Steelers anyway, although the team's defensive deficiencies could end up proving me wrong.
Washington [football team] over Green Bay Packers

And we reach the two teams that I don't think anybody would mind playing all that much. Washington is a total shock to me, but Kirk Cousins has been playing out of his mind at home this season. Equally as surprising, the same cannot be said about Aaron Rodgers. I have no idea what the hell happened to the Packers, as the loss of Jordy Nelson should not have made the team this dysfunctional. Yes, there's every chance that Green Bay suddenly snaps back into form and begins the run that every expert had them going on. Try as I might, I just can't believe in the Packers now. Against anybody else, I might quickly dismiss Washington. Instead, I find them actually advancing one more round this year.


NOTE: I have not abandoned the playoff bracket graphics I used for other sports, but the Wild Card costume is just kind of tradition and the bracket layout could change depending on what happens this weekend. For now, it looks something like this:



Like I said, the layout of those teams could very well be rearranged next week.

1 comment:

JessicaWalters said...

Hey there! I've been reading your post for quite a while now :) The season so far has been soo unpredictable to be honest, nobody blames you. When I realized that I could in no way succeed on my own I stareted relying on websites such as http://www.fantasysportsdaily.com for my picks. I like that particular website because it focuses a lot on statistics and mathematical models, you may want to give it a look. I've been having a lot of luck lately I wish to you and your family all the best and keep up the good work in the future.