Conference Championship Picks: So Close

Got three of my four picks last weekend right, bringing my playoff prediction record to 5-3. Perhaps more amazingly to me, it also makes me look smart in the sense that three of the four teams I had in this round of conference championships back when I made my predictions for the season in September actually got this far. The only question now, of course, is whether I stick to my guns.

At this point, I really don't see any reason not to. In all honesty, this season is pretty much at risk of playing out exactly as I expected (and feared, to some degree). Of course, we saw unlikely underdog comebacks (Cleveland Cavaliers) and historic curses being broken (Chicago Cubs) in 2016, so there's still some small hope that maybe we'll get a couple more surprises.

It's not completely unrealistic, but the NFL has to be salivating at the prospect of two weeks of buildup to a Brady-Rodgers meeting in Super Bowl LI. That's not to say these outcomes will be rigged, as I'm guessing we'll get at least one (hopefully) two close games this weekend. If nothing else, there should be a whole lot of scoring. Still, there's almost a sense that a New England-Green Bay rematch is preordained. 

Continue reading, I guess, if you want to see me try to talk myself out of that conclusion.

As always, here's my predictions in their usual descending order of confidence:

New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pats don't come into this game with all of the weapons I was expecting back at the beginning of the year, but they're still a team capable of making stars of guys who would otherwise be no-names. The Steelers have their own variety of weapons on offense, with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown posing a very unique challenge. Still, New England's defense was better than Pittsburgh's both against the run and through the air in the regular season. The same holds true on the other side of the ball. The game is going to hinge on mistakes. Tom Brady only threw two picks in the regular season, but then he went and threw two last weekend against Houston. I'm simply not expecting him to falter this weekend.

Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons

Oh, that Falcons offense. The numbers are astonishing. And I've come to learn that it's not just an air attack. The team has two running backs who aren't household names, but together put up numbers that are just as good as—if not better than—the star of any other team. Still, the Pack has Aaron Rodgers. And there just seems to be no way to stop this guy this year. Take away his best receiver? Whatever. Like the Patriots, Green Bay just seems capable of scoring with whatever guys they put out on the field. As a Bears fan (with a mother-in-law who's a [bandwagon] Packer fan), I'll obviously be rooting like hell for Atlanta, but I'm fully expecting more heartbreak in Georgia.