1. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
—Not really much debate about this one, and it's not as though anybody's saying the guy doesn't deserve it (I happened to see Ben Mankiewicz on the newly dumbed-down version of "At the Movies" actually said he would have voted for Josh Brolin). While I wasn't as enthusiastic about "The Dark Knight" as some friends (I thought Newsweek's David Ansen put it best: "You may emerge more exhausted than elated."), I'm not foolish enough to deny Ledger deserves every bit of praise he's gotten for this. And as somebody else put it, would any of the other four nominees want to accept this award instead?
2. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: "WALL-E"
—Like "Dark Knight," another film where it seems everybody is a bigger fan than myself (certainly enjoyed it, but I guess I still prefer either "Toy Story" when we're talking Pixar flicks). Still, of the three nominees, "WALL-E" was realistically being talked about as a possible Best Picture nominee.
3. BEST PICTURE: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—I thought a few months ago that "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" was being hyped as the certain winner and certainly sounded like the favorite. But "Slumdog" has won just about every other award and seems destined to grab one last honor.
4. BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire"
—If the award was being used as some sort of way for voters to honor a director they'd overlooked in years past, perhaps we'd be talking about a possible upset. But that's not the case this year and there's little reason to believe that Director and Picture go hand-in-hand (as they should, of course).
5. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"
—None of the other nominees has a strong, competing buzz about them to derail the "Slumdog" train.
6. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "Man on Wire"
—I really wanted to see "Trouble the Water" this year, but missed my opportunity to catch it when it was in Chicago. I'd intended to do that, and just like "Dear Zachary" or "Religulous," it appears I'll be catching all those on DVD instead. As for what actually is nominated, "Man on Wire" is the popular favorite. But as Ebert notes in his predictions this year, this is a category where voters are required to have seen all the nominated films. I can't recall a specific example off the top of my head, but seem to recall that upsets not only can, but have happened here.
7. BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
—Well, just look at the cover of the new Time. Seriously though, Winslet's toughest competition comes from Meryl Streep, nominated for the 15th time. While Streep did win the SAG this year, Winslet won there for "The Reader" as a supporting actress. And Streep's already won twice while Winslet's been nominated six times now without a win. There's been some rumbling about a possible Melissa Leo upset for "Frozen River," but I wouldn't count on it.
8. BEST FILM EDITING: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—Chris Dickens has already picked up a couple honors and appears poised to benefit from the "Slumdog" ride to the stage.
9. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—Anthony Dod Mantle also gets to ride the "Slumdog" wave.
10. BEST MAKEUP: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
—Because "Benjamin Button" needs to win something, I guess ...
11. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
—... or two things.
12. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: "Slumdog Millionaire"
—The "Slumdog" train rolls on.
13. BEST SOUND MIXING: "The Dark Knight"
—Heath Ledger aside, the sound awards will provide voters an easy way to atone for the perceived Best Picture snub.
14. BEST SOUND EDITING: "The Dark Knight"
—Different people accepting, but goes along with the aforementioned audio honor.
15. BEST ART DIRECTION: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
—Another possible honor for "Benjamin Button," the only film with a Best Picture nod in this group of nominees.
16. BEST COSTUME DESIGN: "The Duchess"
—No clue what the film's about, but just judging by the pictures I've seen, it seems like a safe bet.
17. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penélope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
—For one reason or another, I have a hard time accepting this. But I don't feel comfortable picking any other nominee in Cruz's place. (Where, by the way, is Rosemarie DeWitt in all this? I notice she won a Skandie, so at least it's not just me still being too high on "Rachel Getting Married" I assume.) While Ebert has picked Viola Davis, it also seems Amy Adams has received a nice little buzz, but you have to figure they'll split the vote for "Doubt" fans. Others are speculating Taraji P. Henson has a shot, although I've only seen one person actually pick her. And I've certainly got a soft spot for Marisa Tomei, although she's already won before and that one perceived upset (I picked her that year ... and so did Bill O'Reilly, so I still don't know what those people are talking about) will probably be deemed too recent. I'm tempted to pick Tomei, but in this category I'll opt to go with the favorite.
18. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
—The film has many supporters and since it's unlikely to win Best Picture, any other major awards it can pick up are kind of a way of making up for that. "WALL-E" wouldn't be an entire shock either, and there's even a reasonable chance that "In Bruges" could pull off an upset.
19. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Waltz with Bashir"
—Since the Israeli film's animated style has created much of the attention it has gotten, I'll go with that. The French documentary "The Class" is a formidable contender as well.
20. BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Down to Earth," "WALL-E"
—"Jai Ho" seems the likelier of the two "Slumdog" selections here, but the third nominee is a Peter Gabriel tune. On a side note, where the hell is Springsteen?
21. BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
—I've been going back and forth about this one for weeks and this award is undoubtedly the closest contest of the evening. Sean Penn is certainly the favorite, but he did win just a few years back. And while the role allows him to play a real-life person (always good for votes), I simply think a combonation of the physical toll Rourke took on himself in "The Wrestler" and the role's correlation to his own life in Hollywood is going to make for an acceptance speech that most voters would like to see.
22. BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM: "Presto"
—Hey! I actually saw this one! Surely that must mean something!*
23. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306"
—Ah, and so we've arrived at those awards we're all clueless about. Here's what everybody else is picking, so why not tag along?
24. BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM: "Spielzeugland" ("Toyland")
—Again, everybody else's popular favorite.
Reaction and grand totals, as always, forthcoming.
* - Does not actually mean anything.
UPDATE: I wasn't in any Oscar pools this year and it's not as though they were done in a confidence manner anyway, but that was pretty good that I didn't miss one until my 13th most confident pick.
I was working last night, but did manage to see almost all of the winners being announced. Still, I missed most of the "show" aspects, you could say, but I'm sure I'll see the highlights pop up around this here internets. Most of us wanted Mickey Rourke to win last night, but I heard his acceptance speech for an Independent Spirit Award on the radio. Pretty good stuff.
Overall, my score ended up being
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