NBA Playoffs, Round One

I should have mentioned that for the sake of comparison, I'll be referring to the picks of "experts" from Yahoo! and ESPN in both the NBA and NHL Playoffs. So, let's see where I end up.

Forgive me for not being more excited about the NBA this year. For one, my luck in the pool at work was fucking terrible. Secondly, the Bulls got in and now get to perhaps lose by a somewhat smaller margin in their inevitable first-round exit. And lastly, I might have to watch the Lakers win another NBA Championship. Not what I want.

As far as my predictions from the beginning of the season go, my Finals pick is technically still alive (but far from likely). I got six of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams right, while I was seven of eight in the West.

Here's how I see Round One, in the usual descending level of confidence:

Cleveland Cavaliers over Detroit Pistons in four games

I actually debated about picking the Cavs to get that top spot in the East, and of course played it safe instead. But the environment in Cleveland from what I've seen on television all year is pretty impressive and even if it is indeed a case of the fans overly whooping it up to try and keep LeBron in town, it's going to really make that home court advantage a killer. Beyond that, I'm guessing LeBron is going to want to send a message and will pick it up where ever any of his teammates let him down.

Los Angeles Lakers over Utah Jazz in five games

Yuck. I'd love to see Deron Williams have a great series and pull off a spectacular upset, but let's get real. Everything's coming up roses for L.A. these days, whether it's the prospect of having Bynum around for this year's run or the news that KG won't be around if there's a Finals rematch (and, no, there probably won't be). And in Utah, the Lakers get a first-round opponent who sort of had a freefall into the eighth spot, perhaps the result of a clubhouse coming apart as uncertainty abounds with the team's free-agent forwards. The Jazz win Game Four to save a little face, but then get prompty shellacked and hit the golf course after Game Five.

Orlando Magic over Philadelphia 76ers in five games

I still think of how the Times' Jonathan Abrams put it back in January:

The Magic’s opponents are victims of doomed-if-they-do, doomed-if-they-don’t when Orlando has the ball. If Howard is surrounded near the basket, Nelson, Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu are usually isolated for easy jump shots. If Howard is not swarmed, he possesses all the requisite skills to score against any defender.

And Philly provides little in the middle to stop Howard from beginning a march toward the conference finals.

Boston Celtics over Chicago Bulls in five games

If you're actually reading this shit, then I'll let you in on a little something I did today that was probably pretty shameful. But when I was at work today, I saw the news today on the bottom of the screen on ESPN about Danny Ainge's heart attack one day after the news about their star possibly being gone for the entire post-season and just busted out laughing. I mean, the guy didn't die, so it wasn't that tasteless.

Anyway, the Celtics have beaten teams like the Bulls without KG, and I'm sure they get by just fine.

Denver Nuggets over New Orleans Hornets in seven games

I do like the possibility of CP3 making another strong playoff run, but the Nuggets are the one team I didn't see in the post-season when my making my picks at the beginning of the year (my eighth team from the West was—yikes—the Clippers) and I can buy into your suggestion of Chauncey Billups for MVP. I'm guessing the home team wins every game here and the Hornets are just too banged up for the long haul.

Portland Trailblazers over Houston Rockets in seven games

Hmmm ... Here's a Portland bunch I was never really crazy about but now have come to love since a second round date with L.A. would mean the Lakers have to play in a place they haven't won in the past four or so seasons. The problem is that in order for that to happen, the Blazers have to first get by a Rockets bunch that desperately wants to get out of the first round. There's a tremendous stigma for Yao Ming to shake, even if T-Mac can only watch. Still, I'm thinking Portland attacks and gets the calls at home necessary to keep fans in Houston frustrated about another one-and-done end to the year.

San Antonio Spurs over Dallas Mavericks in seven games

Sports Illustrated had the Spurs beating the Celtics, if I recall correctly, and how terribly that worked out for them since, like Boston, San Antonio enters the playoffs with one crucial element of their past success certainly out for the entire post-season (Manu Ginobli) and their star (Tim Duncan) ailing. But the Spurs beat this same Mavericks team without either of those guys back in February. Even if the Mavs can steal one in San Antonio, I still think the Spurs are crafty enough and deep enough to win in Big D and make a bid to get to the conference finals.

Miami Heat over Atlanta Hawks in seven games

What's the best way to show respect for the two teams I didn't have making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference if they're playing one another? Miami I had as a nine, so I knew they'd be around, but I seem to recall thinking a mid-season move with Mike Bibby was going to be the story in Atlanta. So much for that.

But the story in the end here, of course, is D-Wade. My guess is that whatever impressive showings you might get from the Hawks, Wade finds himself at the line as often as he needs to be and Miami enjoys one round of victory.