2010 MLB Predictions: This will be our year, took a long time to come

While the definite anticipation for the Stanley Cup Playoffs is once again destined to be my defining interest for the next couple months, Major League Baseball's 2010 season does have to get started at some point—seeing as each team plays as many regular-season games as an NHL team and an NBA team combined (oh, unless there's a rainout that doesn't get made up, I suppose).

And my appetite was somewhat whetted by my entering the same Fantasy Baseball league sis and bro-in-law are in, so I'll obviously have to be paying some attention—which is more than usual, since it typically takes me a good month or two to really start caring.

I didn't do all that hot last year, getting a mere two of the six division winners right and only eight of the 30 teams' final standing correct. So any sort of improvement shouldn't be too difficult—especially since (judging by most other outlets' predictions) a Yankees-Phillies rematch in the World Series is all but guaranteed. Even Joe Morgan's picking that, so if there was ever a sign ...

All I know is that I'm not picking the Indians again—which almost certainly means they'll win the whole thing. Still, let's see if I can improve upon my .267 average from last year:

American League East

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays

I've avoided picking the perennial New York-Boston pairing occupying the top two spots for this division the past two years, but the fuck with doing that again. I could easily see the Yankees starting slow and then eventually pulling away, and as tempting as it is to pick those scrappy Tampa Bay Rays, this year I'll follow convention and take the Red Sox to squeak into a Wild Card spot. Baltimore and Toronto will be waiting to hear if Bud Selig approves that "floating" realignment plan that seemingly represents the only hope for either one of those clubs to ever become a contender again.

American League Central

Minnesota Twins

Chicago White Sox

Detroit Tigers

Cleveland Indians

Kansas City Royals

I didn't have a single team right in this division last year, and I can't say I'm feeling any more confident this season. The Twins are the safe pick, but I could just as easily make arguments for the White Sox or Tigers. The new ballpark bounce seemed to serve the Yankees pretty well last year, and the same was true for the Cardinals in 2006. And those seem like better models of how new venues affect annually consistent teams like Minnesota, since the Mets also opened a new ballpark last year and, well, were still those Mets.

This division has required a 163rd game to decide a winner for the past two years, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that were to happen yet again this year. I like the White Sox's starting rotation (or at least the top four) but have my doubts about how healthy Jake Peavy stays, and the Tigers sure made me choke on that last place finish I had pegged them for last year. I won't make the same mistake this year, although I think Detroit's rotation won't be able to keep them in it for the long haul. The Indians could be entertaining with their youth, but realistically I think they'll only be good enough to stay ahead of a Royals teams that's, well, still the Royals.


American League West

Los Angeles Angels

Texas Rangers

Seattle Mariners

Oakland Athletics

I've seen cases made for all four teams. The Rangers gave it a good run last season and their manager sounds, um, fun. They'll score runs, I'm sure, but I don't know how they'll stop their opponents from doing the same. Oakland picked up Ben Sheets, but they'll need to start fast or else I'm guessing they'll be sellers at the trade deadline. And the Mariners were on the cover of ESPN the Magazine's preview for the year, which is an immediate bad omen to me. Well, that and the fact that Milton Bradley already got ejected from two games in spring training. So that leaves me with the same Angels club I seem to pick every year (they've won this division three years in a row and five of the last six). Sure, they lost John Lackey but they still have Mike Scioscia, which is more than enough for me. 

National League East

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Florida Marlins

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

"McLovin" of the Dan Patrick Show, a fan of all things Philly, made the point that Roy Halladay gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated almost certainly is an omen. He then picked the Braves. I'm following his lead.

Halladay will almost certainly dominate the National League and the lineup the Phils boast is second-to-none, but what about the rest of that rotation—not to mention the bullpen? The Braves meanwhile have a solid starting five, Billy Wagner's been hitting high-90s on the radar gun and, oh yeah, Jason-fucking-Heyward.

Perhaps my own rooting interest here is preventing me from making a truly objective analysis, but aside from the heavily-favored Phillies, I don't think the rest of the division can compete. The Marlins should be reliably resourceful enough to finish above .500 and hang around for a while, but I see them finishing no better than a solid third at the end of the year. The addition of Jason Bay might have been enough to convince me the Mets could improve if they weren't also starting Jeff Francoeur. And whatever fans there are of the lowly Nationals will have to be content with whatever glimpses they get of Stephen Strasburg. 

National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

Houston Astros

Pittsburgh Pirates

Without Milton Bradley in right field to accuse Cubs fans of being racists, I'm tempted to think Chicago's North Side team indeed turns it around. The first problem with that belief is the team's bullpen—which I'm guessing is going to be the reason behind a lot of losses this year. The second problem is the Cardinals, who boast another strong lineup and have two starting pitchers that could likely end up having cases made for Cy Young consideration—provided that both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright stay healthy.

Since Milwaukee blog Brew Crew Ball was awesome enough to mention BMC on their site last year, I'm bumping Milwaukee up a notch from where I saw them finishing last year—not to mention that I'm also not buying into the far too many boutique picks I've seen for Cincinnati so far. Dusty Baker's still managing there, right? Yeah. Same old, same old for the Reds, I bet: Start fast, fade even faster.

The Astros could give Pittsburgh a run for residence in the division's cellar this year, but I'm guessing that in the end, nobody knows how to finish last quite like the Pirates.



National League West 
Colorado Rockies

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

For the record, I still hate the Dodgers. So pretty much my sole reasoning for putting them third here instead of forecasting them to win another division title is the uncertainty surrounding Manny Ramirez's attitude and how that will translate not to his relations with media, but in the field. Russell Martin's gaining 25 pounds doesn't sound promising either.

But it isn't just unabashed loathing of Hell-A that's made me opt for a new division winner here either. Huston Street's health is of concern, but the Rockies in Jim Tracy's first full year on the job still have strong enough of a rotation and a balanced lineup that should put them over the top. Their stiffest competition will once again come from the San Francisco team that battled them for that Wild Card down to the bitter end last year. I'm halfway tempted to say the Giants will even be strong enough to grab the Wild Card this time around, but I think they'll end up coming a couple games short of where the defending NL Champs finish.

Arizona's going to have big problems if they don't have a healthy Brandon Webb, but I still see them finishing ahead of an admittedly faster Padres team whose fan base will probably spend most of the season entertaining theoretical trade scenarios for Adrian Gonzalez.

**********

And my typically disastrous guess about what October holds:

Divisional Playoffs

Yankees over Angels in four

Twins over Red Sox in five

Rockies over Phillies in four

Braves over Cardinals in five

League Championship Series

Yankees over Twins in seven

Braves over Rockies in six

2010 World Series

Braves over Yankees in six

Yeah, that picture at the top of this post of the Championship trophy? I took that while in Atlanta last year. There's also those four ugly-as-sin National League Championship trophies that were consolation prizes of sorts for, oh, 1991, 1992, 1996 and 1999. Those last to years were losses to the Yankees, of course—'96 still being more painful for me to recall than the sweep in '99. But the point here is I'm genuinely optimistic about this Braves season and I honestly can not recall the last time I picked one of my Four Bs to win it all (I'm guessing it was the 1998 Bulls). In short, now's as good a time as any.

And with that said, I'm sure seven starters will become mysteriously hurt as soon as I publish this.