Round One NBA Playoffs Predictions: The song remains the same

By comparison to the NHL predictions I just looked back on earlier this week, the NBA picks for this year were far more successful for a similarly formatted league. I had 16 of the 30 NBA team's final spots correct this year, and this being the first time at guessing how divisions would turn out, I had five of the six winners correct. (None of this, by the way, sounds really bragging-worthy to me.)

Now heading into the NBA playoffs, once again my originally predicted matchup for the Finals is indeed still technically possible—although it's not entirely likely nor is it at all basically desirable. As a matter of fact, the mantra here at BMC remains a hearty "ANYBODY BUT L.A." which will we be repeated each and every round—both boldfaced and italicized for richly derved emphasis.

From my original predictions, I had six of the eight playoff teams in the East right and seven of eight in the West. We'll get to how off I was on their seeds in each prediction that follows here, with the same sites' experts I compared my awful showing last year to. Like the NHL, there's only but a couple series with difference of opinion here but here's the others' picks first:

Yahoo:

ESPN:

 

CBSSports.com:

 

Ball Don't Lie:

Yep. So one, maybe two surprises here, right?

My first four here are pretty obvious safe bets but the confidence certainly declines all the way down to that last series from my perspective:

Los Angeles Lakers over Oklahoma City Thunder in five games

We'll just get this out of the way right here and start the complaining as though there were a committee similar to the one for the NCAA that gave the defending champions the softest route possible to the conference finals. I know it's all just sort of the crazy luck they had to have all the worst-possible early matchups be avoided by having basically the West's four other best teams whittle themselves down to one before L.A. can even has to worry about facing any of them, but the Lakers train can take its time getting started with this first round series. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if a Thunder team that's indeed very fun to watch can steal more than the one game I'm guessing they'll take in the pair they're guaranteed to play at home, but I'm sure Kobe's going to want to outdo Durant for highlights.

Cleveland Cavaliers over Chicago Bulls in five games

I don't even know what I'm supposed to want to have happen in this series. Realistically, I guess Cleveland's still probably the best shot for a team from the East to ensure Los Angeles isn't winning another trophy. So that's my first excuse for not rooting harder for the Bulls. But really, I'll be tickled pink with whatever the outcome to this series is—even if the Bulls should happen to totally defy my expectations like the pretty much exact same ones I had for them in this round last year. (In case you forgot how that turned out ...) If Chicago ends up having the most entertaining series of the playoffs again, well then here's to minor accomplishments! My guess is Bulls fans are going to have to wait until July 1 to get really excited about something (or totally let down, I suppose).

Orlando Magic over Charlotte Bobcats in six games

 OK, first off: Can we all not freak out when the Magic start slow like they always do? I'm willing to guess they lose the opener. Maybe even go down 2-1. But despite however good of a job Larry Brown has done in Charlotte (and it's been a pretty good one), he doesn't have the size or the bench to knock off Orlando. The Bobcats will be a pest, but the Magic will still get by.

Phoenix Suns over Portland Trailblazers in six games

It's too bad about Brandon Roy, and his absence almost made me want to pick the Suns in five. But I'm guessing that what the Blazers bring at the Rose Garden can still keep up with a Phoenix offense that a lot of people are liking to get to the conference finals. Even if Amar'e Stoudemire isn't making either LaMarcus Aldridge or Marcus Camby his bitch, Steve Nash hasn't had many problems getting a double-double against the Blazers all year. Portland's just too slow and just seemingly overall unlucky as a franchise from here to eternity.

Atlanta Hawks over Milwaukee Bucks in six games

I'm all kinds of tempted to believe the Bucks would make for a good upset story this round, but that's harder to believe without Andrew Bogut. I fully expect Atlanta to be able to dominate in the frontcourt and wouldn't rule out a Hawks sweep, but I'm admittedly still an admirer of Scott Skiles and think that even if Joe Johnson adds to his off-season value in this series, Milwaukee's going to make the Hawks play the full 48 every time.

Dallas Mavericks over San Antonio Spurs in seven games

I don't see how this series doesn't go seven. And what a damn shame from my perspective, because I obviously would have preferred an L.A. title run require playing both of these teams. Alas, we get another opening round meeting between these two teams in the division I got entirely wrong. The Spurs looked to be regaining their form in the games I saw them in toward the end of the year, but the Mavs have been defying expectations all year long. Both teams have solid benches and if this series isn't the one that most interests you, then go have your fucking head examined because you're certifiably basketball retarded. I'm placing my bets that this is the best series of the first round with the potential to be the best of the entire playoffs.

Boston Celtics over Miami Heat in seven games

OK, if there was ever a doubt about my expertise here, I'll just flat out say right now that I have no idea what to expect in this series. This could be entertaining as all hell, or it could be ugly as sin. Did I really say Boston was going to be in the Finals this year? Yeah, I'm not standing by that—right now, at least. Even if D-Wade and the Heat suddenly start putting on quite a show, I'm still guessing the Celtics do what they always do in the first rounds of late and that's find a way to win. Whether they display enough to get any further, we'll have to see.

Denver Nuggets over Utah Jazz in seven games

I hate it. This entire fucking bracket, I mean. The winner of this series in all likelihood gets to be trounced by the Lakers. And neither of these teams looks to be in a position to make L.A. work too hard. I've changed my pick in this series five times already, but the bottom line, I suppose, is that it's the Nuggets with home court. The Jazz are just too banged up without AK-47, although Chauncey Billups needs to get his shit together A.S.A.P. if Denver doesn't want to get bounced in even less than the limit I'm guessing this gets pushed to.