Friday, April 15, 2011

The Bulls' Fourth Quarter: THE BEST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE (!!!)

What more can really be said about how much this team has defied expectations this year? Not only did they win their division and finish atop the Eastern Conference, in the end, this year's Bulls team won more games than any other team in the entire NBA. No matter what round the playoffs might be in, Game One—and a Game Seven, should it be necessary—will be at the United Center for the Bulls.

(Psst: They only lost five times there all year.)

This particular past quarter was an even more unbelievably dominant finish to close out the year. The team quietly went about surpassing the 60-win mark, something that any time the franchise has done in the past (all five times coming in the 1990s), they went on to win the NBA Championship each time.

I don't know how exactly to prepare myself for this playoff run coming, but make no mistake: I fully expect this Bulls campaign to still be going after I move in about a month now. The concern isn't so much about viewing concerns (every game will be nationally televised by that point), but the thought that I wouldn't be able to attend another championship parade.


RECORD FOR THE QUARTER: 18-2 (62-20 OVERALL) — They lost two games since the last time I did an update. TWO GAMES. What else am I going to do, expect them to go undefeated? Again: BEST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE. In other words: No complaints.

BEST WIN: April 7 (Bulls 97, Celtics 81) — About the only bummer here for those in attendance that night might have been coming up just short of that free Big Mac. Or the statue unveiled that night (I still like the idea of this one better).

There certainly wasn't much to complain about in the way the Bulls more or less secured the top spot in the Eastern Conference against the team that had been in front of them for most of the race this season. Much like that win over the Spurs just before the All-Star break last quarter, this was another nationally televised game on a night with only two NBA contests. The Celtics, last season's defending conference champs, weren't "resting for the playoffs" yet and only a couple games behind Chicago in the standings, although this loss reduced the Bulls' magic number for clinching home court throughout the conference playoffs to just one.

Derrick Rose severely limited Rajon Rondo from doing anything, the Bulls dominated the Celtics in the paint to the tune of doubling them in scoring there (44-22) and Boston continued to display the reason for concern the Kendrick Perkins trade has maintained in disappointing performance after disappointing performance from their big men: Glen Davis made one of the eight shots he took before being yanked back to the bench by Doc Rivers after just four minutes; Jermain O'Neal started at center for the Celtics, and as Sam Smith put it, "had the same number of rebounds I did"; The "Big Three" saw Kevin Garnett make three of nine shots while Ray Allen made three of 11, and Paul Pierce was the team's leading scorer with just 15 points.

The Bulls didn't officially seal the deal on the top spot in the conference until the following night in Cleveland, but it was this one over Boston that pretty much eliminated any remaining doubts before then.

WORST LOSS: March 18 (Pacers 115, Bulls 108 [OT]) — It's not like I had a lot to choose from this past quarter, and while the other loss was to another Eastern Conference playoff team that's also likely to be bounced in the first round, I'm going to name the Indiana loss the more painful of the two since it ruined the Bulls' chances of sweeping the division—something I'm convinced I jinxed by mentioning last quarter.

Derrick Rose finished with 42 points and led the Bulls back from a 20-point third quarter deficit. The problem, of course, was that no other Bull scored for the final 13 minutes of the game. Sure, the game was admittedly the second part of one of those annoying road back-to-backs, and the team went on to pummel Sacramento by 40 points the next game they played. But now that we know Indiana is the first team the Bulls will be playing in the postseason, the loss is somewhat discouraging if only because that dreaded Conseco Fieldhouse has been seen only once in Bulls playoff history. And while Chicago emerged victorious from that 1998 Eastern Conference Finals, they lost all three games they played in Indiana.

I wouldn't say I'm expecting the Pacers to steal any more than one game when the playoffs begin, but something about their own home court is unnerving.

MVP: Derrick Rose — That Pacers game where his teammates more or less just looked to him to do something with the ball might as well be the perfect bridge to this segment, which might as well just be renamed D. Rose's section since he's been placed here every single time I did one of these quarterly updates this year. And now being the top scorer on the team with league's best record (no, I'm not getting tired of pointing that last part out, thank you), what's preventing him from formally being named the NBA's MVP this year?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing. He's not a secret anymore, and his dominance can no longer be denied. Ball Don't Lie appropriately named him their Most Improved Player.

But the numbers behind his defense should help close the case. From Off the Dribble's Rob Mahoney:
JoakimLuol Deng has made things tough for opposing teams. It’s a matter of necessity; Chicago’s offense isn’t good enough to keep it afloat, and its defense provides the most consistent path toward victory. If Rose were still a defensive sieve, the Bulls would be struggling without Noah. If Rose were merely a moderately successful defender, the Bulls wouldn’t have the top defense and the third seed in the Eastern Conference. It’s taken every bit of Rose’s defensive improvement to keep the Bulls rolling despite significant injuries to both Noah and Carlos Boozer, but he’s quickly taken to Thibodeau’s famed defensive system and delivered in a big way.

More outstanding yet are Rose’s individual defensive numbers. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Rose has allowed just 0.77 points per possession overall on defense this season, an elite mark for any defender, regardless of position. Chris Paul (0.86 points per possession allowed), Rajon Rondo (0.83 PPP allowed), and Russell Westbrook (0.92 PPP allowed) –- all excellent defenders -– have been trumped statistically this year, and by no slim margin. Rose has each of those players handily beat, and boasts a shockingly comprehensive defensive profile.
LVP: Joakim Noah — You hate to beat up on a guy who's already been banged up enough this year as it is, but as long as I'm relying on what others have said to make my points in determining this portion of the segment, let me refer to a piece from Sam Smith earlier this week entitled, "Noah's arc has been downward":
But don’t be fooled. The Bulls are concerned because they know they need Noah, and not the Noah they’ve seen of late, or, frankly, even the one they mostly have seen since his return from surgery after the All-Star break.
Noah simply hasn’t been the same player who was headed for the All-Star team and off that big contract extension and untouchable in any talks for Carmelo Anthony.
Here’s a look at Noah’s season:
– October: 16.5 points and 18 rebounds. But just two games.
– November: 15 points and 12.5 rebounds in 13 games.
– December: 11.4 points and 9.4 rebounds playing with the thumb injury he got in late November and would soon require surgery. He played nine games.
– February: 10.3 points and 13 rebounds in four games.
– March: 9.4 points and 9.3 rebounds. And that was in 14 games before his ankle sprain. So he wasn’t putting up those big numbers.
– April: 7.3 points and 5.5 rebounds in four games.
Gone are those huge rebounding games we’d become accustomed to last season, 17’s and 18’s seemingly almost every other game. But in March Noah had five points and four rebounds in 32 minutes against Memphis, eight points and seven rebounds in 25 minutes against Atlanta. He had 17 points in that overtime loss to the Pacers, but just three rebounds. He had two points and seven rebounds in 17 minutes against Orlando in early March. He had zero points and 11 rebounds in 30 minutes in another game against Atlanta and five points and 10 rebounds in 30 minutes against the Nets.
If the goal really is a title this season, Noah indeed needs to be more reminiscent of that "untouchable" player.

THREE THINGS I'VE LIKED SO FAR:
  1. SWEEP DREAMS — 1998 was a wildly different Pacers group than the sub-.500 group Indiana's sending to the playoffs this year. As a result, I don't foresee any real cause for concern as it relates to the Bulls' postseason hopes until the conference semifinals at the soonest (although, more likely, the conference finals).
  2. IT'LL BE BOSTON OR MIAMI, NOT BOTH — And there's a good chance that it will be right after the two preordained heavyweights in the East have their own showdown to see which one moves on to play Chicago. As has been said many times, this was a big year to be the No. 1 as opposed to the two or three seed.
  3. 36-5 — That, of course, is the home record I can't help but be comforted by with the court advantage the whole way, but even the 26 wins on the road is fourth-best in the league.
THINGS I HAVEN'T:
  1. THE PRESSURE OF BEING NO. 1 — You can't help but notice that in the last decade, only two of the overall top seeds going into the NBA playoffs have actually won the title. And then you start to wonder if those who will inevitably wonder if the Bulls have been battle-tested enough might have a point (Derrick Rose has not won a playoff series yet), although the Pacers should more than likely help put that concern off from coming out until another round.
  2. IS THE BEST RECORD SORT OF SHALLOW WHEN YOU HAVE THE SOFTEST SCHEDULE? — Because according to the Strength Of Schedule (SOS) statistic, the Bulls had the weakest opponents of any team in the league this season.
  3. THE CHARITY STRIPE (AGAIN) — Derrick Rose did alright from the free throw line by making 85.8 percent of his own attempts, but as a team, the Bulls finished the year at 26th in the league (.743). You hope this department isn't what ends up sinking the team's chances early in the playoffs.
25 WORDS OR LESS:
I haven't been this psyched for the NBA playoffs since Michael Jordan's second retirement.

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