Saturday, April 16, 2011

Round One NBA Playoffs Predictions: A genuine rooting interest

I sort of swore off the idea of using YouTube videos above the fold on posts, but this one's a pretty good at whetting one's playoff appetite. And just as this post's title indicates, this year's particularly special now that the beloved Bulls are among the favorites to end up with the Larry O'Brien trophy.

Before I get to everybody's picks though, let me glance back at what I had back at the beginning of the year and size up how I did: with 17 of the 30 teams in the correct spots, that's better than how I've done at the other three sports in recent attempts; seven of my eight Eastern Conference teams did end up making the playoffs, although I only had five of the Western Conference representatives correct this year; I had only three of the predicted seeds correct and my third straight Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals indeed remains a possibility.

Will I stick to that in the end though? We'll find out later, but for now, here's how it looks like the first round might shake out:
I'll be post the picks from all the other experts here later, but the info I screencapped earlier for one site doesn't match what's available now some five hours later. I will come back and the CBS Sports, Yahoo and ESPN personalities later. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo originally had the Mavericks in six, and when I checked back to see if Greg Anthony's picks were up yet, Woj had switched to a Portland sweep. Whatever though ... that won't happen.

Anyway, here's the Yahoo staff's picks:


I will probably include Ball Don't Lie's results in the initial standings, but there were no graphics to utilize in this year's previews—and if it's like usual, only Dwyer's picks will probably be the only ones posted in the next round.

Here's what the only ESPN experts I could find who picked every series have:





And why not throw CBS Sports' crew in here too:






In the meantime, here's my own picks, ranked in descending order of confidence, of course:

Los Angeles Lakers over New Orleans Hornets in five games

You would think that Chris Paul might be able to best exploit the position the defending champs are probably weakest at, but then you remember the Hornets are without David West and in the end New Orleans is probably the ideal opponent to get the Lakers back in form for making a run at a third straight title.
Chicago Bulls over Indiana Pacers in five games

I would like to be ballsy enough to call a sweep, and if indeed there's consistently strong work turned in from somebody other than Derrick Rose, then that's a very likely result. But I have a nagging suspicion that there will be one last near-death kick from the otherwise pathetic Pacers that can earn just enough calls at Conseco to force a fifth game. A tough series from Danny Granger I can live with, but just don't let Tyler Hansbrough have a big series, please. That would seriously hurt the Bulls' title contender rep, obviously.

Miami Heat over Philadelphia 76ers in five games

Miami's potential is scary if their stars indeed can flip a switch, and the Sixers are clearly inferior. But Philly's been one of the more focused and improved lower-seeded teams in the East and will likely benefit from at least one game where they're able to keep their heads in the game better than the oh-so-inconsistent Heat. In the end, the talent wins out and Miami rolls on to a real showdown.

Boston Celtics over New York Knicks in six games

Speaking of flipping a switch, that's what I'd like to expect from the Celtics—especially since we've seen them do it before. But there's still concern about the adjustment to being without Perkins, and the Knicks appeared to be getting their act together in the final weeks of the season. With probably the biggest market draw of any series, this understandably landed a majority of the prime time tip-offs. It could be a fun series if both teams are able to give their fans something to cheer for.


 Sure to be the ugliest series I'll be least interested in watching any of (and now having said that, probably certain to have the most dramatic moment or highlight of the entire playoffs or something). I'd say the result could lean more towards the Magic wrapping it up even quicker, but it seems like another year of the home team winning every contest when Atlanta's involved. Unfortunately for them, this year they're the lower seed.

Oklahoma City Thunder over Denver Nuggets in six games

I'd been totally unaware of how well Denver had played after trading away Carmelo Anthony—and not because I wanted to believe my pre-season prediction that the team would tank after making that move while the Knicks would make the playoffs. The Nuggets aren't to be taken lightly, for sure, and I was initally toying with the idea of saying this goes seven, but ultimately I think Oklahoma City still has the bigger stars and at the end of the day is more than able to move on.

Through equal parts Memphis looking better than expected and San Antonio not looking as convincing as expected, the prospect of the eighth-seeded Grizzlies knocking off the top-seeded Spurs doesn't sound all that unrealistic to some. But it still does to me, and while San Antonio didn't finish the season anywhere near the blazing pace they got off to this year, Gregg Popovich will get his team into the mindset necessary to advance.

Dallas Mavericks over Portland Trailblazers in seven games

Of course the Lakers ended up with the softest possible opponent in the West's first round bracket (and of course I'd whine about it). And while I'm obviously not taking any chances this year with possible first round upsets, here's one that's being so widely picked that it will actually be a surprise to some if Dallas moves on. Not to me, of course, since Dirk Nowitzki was on an MVP pace before getting hurt this year and unlike the Blazers, the Mavs have proved they can win on the road. Jason Terry could have real impact here.

1 comment:

Dubai said...

Such a wonderful video. I enjoyed a lot.

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