NBA Finals Predictions: 2006 Revisited

Something's slightly amiss when the NBA Finals are beginning before the Stanley Cup, but alas, here we are with the basketball opener tonight while hockey's final series kicks off tomorrow.

Just as was the case five years ago when the Mavericks and Heat met, I had thought the playoffs would be concluding with another rematch of the previous year's seven-game Finals. instead, the Lakers got swept and the Celtics seemingly never really did get it together after losing Kendrick Perkins—even after sweeping the Knicks in the first round. For Miami, this scenario was something of an expectation. But Dallas has been defying the odds and ignoring the pundits in their own journey this year, having dropped only one game ever since allowing Portland to come back and tie their first-round series before the Mavs wrapped up the opening test in six.

While this time around it will be the Heat enjoying home-court advantage, it can't be ignored that Dallas hasn't lost on the road since that Blazers comeback in the Rose Garden. Miami has certainly played to their potential this postseason than they did in the regular season, but the question now is if the Mavericks can defy expectations one last time. 

These are how the "experts" have fared in playoff prognosticating up to this point:

1. (1) Chris Broussard, ESPN: 11-3 (4)
2. (2) Ken Berger, CBS Sports: 11-3 (3)
3. (5) J.A. Adande, ESPN: 11-3 (2)
4. (6) Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 11-3 (1)
5. (7) Marc J. Spears, Yahoo: 10-4 (6)
6. (8) Royce Young, CBS Sports: 10-4 (4)
7. (2) Kelly Dwyer, Ball Don't Lie: 10-4 (3)
7. (10) John Hollinger, ESPN: 10-4 (3)
9. (13) Henry Abbott, ESPN: 10-4 (1)
9. (13) Ben Golliver, CBS Sports: 10-4 (1)
11. (8) Matt Moore, CBS Sports: 9-5 (4)
12. (2) David Thorpe, ESPN: 9-4 (3)
13. (19) Sergio Gonzalez, CBS Sports: 9-5 (2)
13. (19) Marc Stein, Ball Don't Lie: 9-5 (2) 
13. (12) YOURS TRULY: 9-5 (2) 
16. (13) Eric Freeman, Ball Don't Lie: 9-5 (1)
16. (13) Johnny Ludden, Yahoo: 9-5 (1)
18. (17) Greg Anthony, Yahoo: 8-6 (4)
19. (10) Chad Ford, ESPN: 8-6 (3) 
19. (18) Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo: 8-6 (3)
21. (19) Tim Legler, ESPN: 8-6 (2)
21. (19) Michael Wilbon, ESPN: 8-6 (2)
23. (23) Dan Devine, Ball Don't Lie: 8-6 (1)
24. (24) Chris Sheridan, ESPN: 8-6 (0)

Now, as for the Finals, we'll begin with the gang from Yahoo:

The gang over at the Mother Ship has these picks:

Finally, the picks from the fellas over at CBS Sports:

And of course, my own pick:

Dallas Mavericks over Miami Heat in six games

Oh, it certainly reeks of wishful thinking, but it's a far cry from, say, picking the Magic over the Lakers a few years back. The same Dallas team many have though were that oh-so-common-reason-for-dismissal "too old" have already resoundingly swept the two-time defending champions out of the playoffs (oh, did I mention that earlier? Yeah, it never really gets old ...), and they boast more players capable of contributing than the Big Three of Miami. You really hope the series doesn't have to resort to a flopping contest (there was enough backlash against officiating five years back), but if the Mavericks were able to handle a Thunder team that got to the line with staggering frequency, I'm inclined to believe Dallas is more than capable of overcoming multiple Heat visits to the free-throw line. Can Tyson Chandler stay out of foul trouble? Will so many Mavs retain the hot hands from downtown? There's certainly reasons for concern as to how Dallas will be able to take four games from this Miami team (like namely, how does any team stop LeBron if he does what he did in closing out both the Boston and Chicago series), but I can't help but believe that with the window closing for so many Mavericks, Dallas gets its inspired performances from not just the big stars but key bench players as well. And unlike 2006 when I claimed I'd have been happy with either team, there's no doubt this year which side I'm rooting for. It's not just wanting to see the Big Three fail; it'd also be nice to see Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd finally get a ring—and see Rick Carlisle reach the top of the mountain as a coach, since he was my first choice for a Bulls head coach after he was rather unheralded for the jobs he did in both Indiana and Detroit. So just like 2006, I'm going with Dallas once again. This time, I'm hoping even a little more than usual that I'm right.