Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Round One NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: Can't talk, hockey (for the next two or so months)

Yeah, so I would normally include the couple paragraphs build-up before the jump and then go to the graphics to accompany the picks, but I'm strapped for time right now and ... well, there was a little additional work that prevented me from offering the usual take on each series I was predicting the outcome for, but I would say that the picks this year were definitely on the safer side. Indeed, I couldn't bring myself to go against any of the teams that had more points in the regular season, so there's two predicted outcomes with lower seeds that, more or less, everybody else is picking.

So far, that logic is not looking especially sound, albeit only a game or two into any series. Still, probably because this is the first time in many years that I am living in a house with cable (or maybe because of the additional coverage provided by NBC's new channel, formerly known as Versus), the playoffs have effectively captured my undivided attention. This past Thursday night, with two opening games going into overtime—at the same time the Bulls and Heat were about to go into overtime—was an unbelievably thrilling night to be playing with the remote. And I have been—and likely, will be—staying up until damn near midnight watching the late games on the west coast. I never caught "March Madness," but I can't seem to shake whatever the hell I've got now.

I will, of course, be comparing my picks to those of the experts at ESPN, Yahoo and Puck Daddy. For now though, here's my Über-safe predicted outcomes, in descending order of confidence (hopefully with me minimally saying how I was going to pick the other way now that some series are already half in the bag for the opposing team):
St. Louis Blues over San Jose Sharks in five games
OK, so St. Louis surprised just about everybody this year. I thought that picking them here seemed to be the safest pick of any you could have this round, since the Blues took all four meetings they had with the underwhelming Sharks. So, of course, San Jose went out and stole the opener. Even Antti Niemi was there—the good one, I mean. St. Louis was contending for the President's Trophy this year and I assumed their problems would more likely be with another Central team, since that's the only division the team had a sub-.500 record against. San Jose has not fared much better against Central, in general, either, going 10-8-2 in the regular season.
I made it clear that I felt more comfortable about this matchup for the Blackhawks than having to face either the Red Wings or Predators in the first round, but that does not mean it will be a cake walk. Phoenix hung on to take the opener and not only showcased how stellar their goaltender is, but also how much more aggressive they are than the Hawks. Phoenix outhit Chicago 48-22, and the Hawks did not seem to be playing with anywhere near the urgency for most of the contest. Still, when is the last time Chicago didn't lose the very first game of the playoffs? I think we should be used to this by now, or at the very least, not panic. Corey Crawford made his own share of incredible saves in a losing effort, and I'm still convinced the Hawks correct the mistakes and still take this in six.
Well, shit. I don't know if we've seen L.A. take the first two of a series in a while, and while I know they've certainly won a game or two, I expected more of the same from them with a spirited showing that still results in first round elimination. I figure playing until a Game 7 last year is going to catch up with Vancouver at some point, but I didn't fully expect it to be here. Can the Kings keep counting on Quick? A lights-out goalie wouldn't be the first time that resulted in a No. 8 knocking off a top seed, and I'm kind of enjoying the Canuck FAIL for now. Still, I originally had Vancouver in six.
New York Rangers over Ottawa Senators in six games
The Rangers have also been better than I expected them to be this year, and while Ottawa might not be the matchup New York would have preferred, the Sens really limped across the finish line. I could see Ottawa finding a way to irritate the Rags, but there's just not enough there to make me think Henrik Lundqvist can't carry New York through this series. The Senators should be able to steal a pair in there somewhere, but the Rangers, under a Stanley Cup-winning coach, won't be undone by top seed jitters.
New Jersey Devils over Florida Panthers in six games
I normally pick against Jersey, and it's served me well in recent years. But here, in a series in which the Atlantic's 102-point fourth-place team faces the Southeast-winning, 94-point Panthers, there's not much reason to believe that the Devils club that won nearly 50 games overcomes home ice disadvantage against the Florida team that did not even win 40 games. Nobody got more points for overtime losses and shootout losses this year than the Panthers, and the bottom line remains that, sure, they can be a scrappy club, but no, they're not going anywhere in the playoffs. I think they can catch Jersey during an off-night in this series once or twice, but in the end the Devils advance easily.
After not picking the Bruins once in last year's Cup run, I admit my mistakes now. Hell, what do I know? I had the Caps making it to the final round repeatedly, and here we are now with Boston preparing to defend the title against Washington right from the start. This has been a severely disappointing campaign from the Caps, and while I think they're going to make it a series, I also accept that this Boston team has the pieces still in place to contend again this year. So, let's get this avoidance of picking them out of the way here, as tempted as I may be to hope for an upset.
I felt pretty good about having Pittsburgh getting to the final round this year in my preseason picks, and then they go out now and drop the first two at home. Of course, there's a reason I ranked this low. The Flyers have been a capable team all year long too, and there's a very good chance that whichever team emerges here will indeed go all the way to the Cup. Despite falling behind 2-0 to start, I still think Pittsburgh can pull it together and win four of the next five.
Nashville Predators over Detroit Red Wings in seven games 
What I just said applies here too, as another four-five winner could very well be playing for the Cup. Home ice is rather critical, seeing as Detroit had a record-setting run at the Joe this year. Still, Nashville has tasted playoff success now, and I assume they will be more focused than ever. Then Shea Weber goes and slams Henrik Zetterberg's head into the glass in the opener. That made me think that maybe the Preds aren't so composed after all, which could backfire tremendously against the Wings. Still, I had Nashville in seven when I made these picks, so no changing that now.

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