Sunday, May 27, 2012

NBA Playoff Confrence Finals Predictions: Another edition of Age & Wisdom v. Youth & Explosiveness

In the quest to crown a new NBA Champion, we are down to the final four teams. And while the Heat are certain to command a lot of attention just by still being around, the series that is likely going to feel more like the "must-see" television will be the Western Conference Finals. Indeed, I did want to use this image to indicate the marquee matchup that we're looking at, but the truth is that the Spurs and the Thunder are more than just one-dimensional teams. All four teams really are, although Miami's two at this point is barely an exception.

Anyway, the Thunder had been predominant favorites to win the West throughout the season, but it now appears that with Spurs still waiting to experience their first loss in these playoffs, many of us are acknowledging that San Antonio has reasonably established its legitimacy as the team to beat. Can the Thunder live up to their young potential? Or will the Spurs' wily veterans prove that with age comes wisdom?

Before we get to my own picks, I actually had time to compile a few other records of predictions thus far in these playoffs.

Considering that most everybody has had the same picks with basically only one series per round have some difference of opinion, the differences are not quite as varied as the NHL standings (which will be included in the Stanley Cup pick that will go up on ... Tuesday? Wednesday?):

1. Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN: 11-1 (5)
2. Chris Perkins, Sheridan Hoops: 11-1 (4)
3. Chris Broussard, ESPN: 11-1 (3)
3. Kelly Dwyer, Ball Don't Lie: 11-1 (3)
3. David Thorpe, ESPN: 11-1 (3)
6. Marc J. Spears, Yahoo: 10-2 (5)
7. Henry Abbott, ESPN: 10-2 (4)
7. J.A. Adande, ESPN: 10-2 (4)
7. Chris Bernucca, Sheridan Hoops: 10-2 (4)
7. Johnny Ludden, Yahoo: 10-2 (4)
11. Jon Barry, ESPN: 10-2 (3)
11. Bruce Bowen, ESPN: 10-2 (3)
 11. Eric Freeman, Ball Don't Lie: 10-2 (3)
11. Moke Hamilton, Sheridan Hoops: 10-2 (3)
11. Mark Heisler, Sheridan Hoops: 10-2 (3)
11. John Hollinger, ESPN: 10-2 (3)
11. Tim Legler, ESPN: 10-2 (3)
11. Marc Stein, ESPN: 10-2 (3)
19. Chad Ford, ESPN: 10-2 (2)
19. James Park, Sheridan Hoops: 10-2 (2)
19. Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo: 10-2 (2)
19. YOURS TRULY: 10-2 (2)
23. Dan Devine, Ball Don't Lie: 10-2 (1)
24. Adam Zagoria, Sheridan Hoops: 10-2 (0)
25. Michael Wilbon, ESPN: 9-2 (3)
26. Greg Anthony, Yahoo: 9-3 (2)
27. Israel Gutierrez, ESPN: 9-3 (1)
28. Jan Hubbard, Sheridan Hoops: 8-4 (1)
29. Chris Sheridan, Sheridan Hoops: 7-5 (3)

So Wilbon's missing a game there because ESPN is not showing his pick for the Boston-Philadelphia series, even though he presumably chose the Celtics just like everyone else did. As I said, not a lot of differentiation  in picks thus far, but there may be a little bit more variety in these final two rounds. Well, ... maybe not this round:


One reason I opted not to use the Duncan-Durant marquee matchup photo is that Tony Parker was a legitimate MVP candidate this season. The stat I saw is that the Spurs are 43-4 and in the last 47 games he has played in. But the bottom line is that San Antonio is about as complete a package as you could ask for in a basketball team, and that's precisely the type of squad it is going to take to eliminate Oklahoma City. At first, I thought the Thunder would present an enormous challenge to most teams by way of being quicker and very good from the charity stripe in addition to being very good at getting to the line. But Oklahoma City will need to continue taking the much improved care of the basketball that the team displayed against the Lakers, after leading the league in turnovers in the regular season. In the end, though, the depth is going to be what puts the Spurs over the top. Assuming each team's top three players have an off-night, it's San Antonio that's replete with role players who have continually contributed the team's success. The Spurs execute better than most every team in the league offensively, and in the end, I suspect that San Antonio will be able to systematically pick apart OKC to move on to another Finals appeareance. 

Miami Heat over Boston Celtics in six games

I may be guilty of giving Boston too much credit, maybe thinking the one last run for their own Big Three has the benefit of coming after a shortened season. Oh, and is Chris Bosh playing? Will it really matter? The Celtics' struggles just to get past the Sixers does not bode well for how effective the team's offense will need to be against the Heat's, with or without Bosh. While I would certainly like to believe that the hype Miami brings with them will inspire Boston's stars to really elevate their games, I am fearing that what we are more likely to see are more instances where LeBron James and Dwayne Wade how just how aged the Celtics really are. While I normally tend to believe the veteran clubs can overcome the younger, more athletic squads, we have already seen that Miami is no longer haunted at the prospect of facing Boston. Again, while it is uncertain when or if Bosh will play in this series, it also remains uncertain how effective Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will be here. Simply put, I am thinking that I may already be thinking the Celtics are going to accomplish more than they really will, but I do suspect that in the end, it will be either James or Wade making the big plays, either defensively or in terms of hitting big shots, late in any close games to help the Heat return to the Finals once again.

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