Monday, May 28, 2012

NHL Stanley Cup Final Prediction: In which the lowest seed ever wins the Cup

And so it comes to this. Had you asked me to write down all the possible head-to-heads for the Stanley Cup when these playoffs began and then order them in descending likelihood, I have to wonder how far this would have been from the bottom. I'd like to believe it would be closer to the middle somewhere, but I can say with tremendous certainty that it definitely would have ranked fairly low at the beginning of this season.

You're usually lucky if you get one Cinderella in the Final, and here we've technically got two.

The Devils were definitely a stronger kind of a six-seed, seeing as they did still finish the year with more than 100 points and were sort of a universal favorite to beat the Panthers in the first round. Still, very few people had them getting much further than that, let alone play in the last series of the year.

And the Kings? They had their handfuls of believers in those first two rounds before a clear majority caught on that they've been in a different gear ever since this postseason started. It's not the series many of us were expecting, but that sure as hell doesn't mean it won't be interesting.

At long last, I added up everybody's fairly sorry-ass predictions total this year:

1. James Murphy, ESPN: 9-5 (3)
2. John Buccigross, ESPN: 9-5 (0)
3. Nicholas J. Cotsonika, Yahoo: 8-6 (2)
3. Craig Custance, ESPN: 8-6 (2)
3. Elena Pagliarello, Puck Daddy: 8-6 (2)
6. Darryl Dobbs, Puck Daddy: 7-7 (3)
7. Sam McCaig, Yahoo: 7-7 (2)
7. Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy: 7-7 (2)
7. Katie Strang, ESPN: 7-7 (2)
10. Dmitry Chenokov, Puck Daddy: 7-7 (0)
11. Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 6-8 (3)
 12. Linda Cohn, ESPN: 6-8 (2)
13. Ryan Lambert, Puck Daddy: 6-8 (1)
13. Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 6-8 (1)
13. Steve Levy, ESPN: 6-8 (1)
13. Joe McDonald, ESPN: 6-8 (1)
17. Scott Burnside, ESPN: 6-8 (0)
17. Barry Melrose, ESPN: 6-8 (0)
19. Jesse Rogers, ESPN: 5-9 (2)
20. YOURS TRULY: 5-9 (1)
21. Paul Grant, ESPN: 5-9 (0)
21. Jeff Marek, Puck Daddy: 5-9 (0)
21. Kent Wilson, Puck Daddy: 5-9 (0)
24. Greg Wyshinski, Puck Daddy 4-10 (1)

Maybe I can still crack the Top 20, if everybody isn't picking:

Los Angeles Kings over New Jersey Devils in five games

Amazingly, the Kings entered these playoffs knowing that there would be no scenario in which they could ever have home ice. And that's working totally in their favor, seeing as they have yet to lose a road game at any point in these playoffs. That's fairly astonishing in its own right, but Los Angeles has just been freaks of nature this postseason. Jonathan Quick could very easily steal the spotlight (and the Conn Smythe) from Martin Brodeur, although if any of the Kings' amazing line of Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams remain the types of presences that can keep Jersey back in their own zone and create a lot of problems for the Devils, maybe it will not be the goalie being recognized at the conclusion of the series. As good as this run has been for Brodeur, I'm afraid that the list of goalies that New Jersey has beaten is not as impressive as those L.A. has faced. Consider: First forcing Vancouver to start Cory Schneider after scaring off Bob Luongo; Brian Elliott might not have been the starter but his numbers as a backup for St. Louis were nothing to scoff at in the regular season; and Mike Smith was competing for Conn Smythe consideration as well through two rounds. Regardless of outcome, the Devils can claim one of the most video game-like goals of these playoffs, but I'm just expecting the Kings to score more of them in this series. While we've been fortunate enough to have more series that go six or seven games in recent years, I'm thinking we're due for a short one here. L.A. takes three, Jersey gets one to avoid the sweep and then the Kings wrap it up in Newark. If the riot photo from the losing town becomes tradition, then maybe this year can feature a skanky housewife. Either way, I guess.

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