Round One NBA Playoff Predictions: With Comments!

I apologize that this year's first round picks are pretty much the exact same picks I had last year, but my feelings throughout these playoffs are likely to be the same for as long as LeBron James is playing in Miami. Once again, the Heat are the clear favorites, and once again, the Thunder are the popular expectation to be the final and perhaps strongest challenger. While I was tempted to believe at one time that the Indiana Pacers might be able to give the champs a legitimate threat, but the entire Eastern Conference Playoffs feels like a month-long formality. 

That isn't to say that I don't think there won't be some excitement somewhere in this year's playoffs. Hell, there's a number of games out West that I think I'll be interested in catching. Oh, and yeah, the Bulls are in it. And I guess technically I'm expecting a couple upsets. 

As I probably made a little clear last night, my expectations are not very high for this year's Chicago team (although I think the other United Center resident should still be working there into June). While I'm certainly expecting a Heat repeat, I'm openly rooting for David Stern's final Larry O'Brien presentation be handing a fifth trophy to Gregg Popovich. Seeing as the wife hates the Spurs, that isn't likely to be too popular in my household, but hey, it's not my fault the Mavs season is over.
I'm debating whether to track other "experts." Seems like every year I do, then ESPN analysts begin dropping off. Some of the Ball Don't Lie previews didn't include picks from all three of their guys. I can't really screencap Sheridan Hoops' presentation. 

I may or may not compare my record to dudes from other websites in the nest post, but for now, here's my own picks in descending order of confidence (CBS Sports' picks are including confidence percentages):

Miami Heat over Milwaukee Bucks in four games

I only worry about speaking so confidently in regards to how absurdly obvious the conclusion to this series is for fear of sounding too much like Stephen A. Smith. Or Skip Bayless. Or any Mother Ship employee. But seriously: the Miami Heat finished with the best record in the league and set the record for the second-longest winning streak in a season, while the Bucks are the only sub-.500 team in the playoffs. Not that I think any Heat player takes such concerns seriously, but even one loss to Milwaukee is sure to usher in numerous doubts about whether Miami is as dominant as we've all been led to believe. They are, and they will be.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston Rockets in five games

It could literally be James Harden against his former team, as I don't see the Rockets threatening to win many games that "The Beard" doesn't score like 40-something points. In their regular season meetings, Harden was the only way Houston could keep the deficit to less than 20. Just as Miami is likely feeling a certain obligation to seep, Oklahoma City probably wants to make a similar statement. I expect the Thunder are going to win their games by blowout margins, but the Rockets will get one dominant Harden performance (probably in Houston) to steal one game.

Indiana Pacers over Atlanta Hawks in six games

The Atlanta Hawks were in position to get a first round date with the Nets instead and finally, you know, win a series. Alas, the Hawks are nothing like the team I saw at the beginning of the year, and the Pacers have only gotten better—even without Danny Granger. This has all the makings of a horribly uneven and ugly series by all means dominated by Indiana, but Atlanta always seems to win at least one or two. I highly doubt that they're going to push this one seven, much less come close to winning the series, because Indiana knows it has bigger fish to fry.

Memphis Grizzlies over Los Angeles Clippers in six games

I got burned by Memphis last year, and it indeed seems like the Clippers are the more popular favorite here, but I think the Grizzlies are going to frustrate L.A. and ultimately lead to Vinny Del Negro's exit. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin might be the biggest stars on the court, but they could end up looking like the biggest babies by series end. I was going to say that I probably said the same thing last year, but I forgot that I didn't include comments last year. I don't recall what the free throw situation was in Los Angeles last year, but it's downright dreadful this season when DeAndre Jordan's at the stripe. The dude's an enormous liability that ol' Vinny is going to have to properly plan for. Needless to say, I'm not counting on that.

Denver Nuggets over Golden State Warriors in six games

Probably the series I expect the most thrilling finishes from. (Now watch it be a lopsided sweep.) While Kenneth Faried's absence for the first game—maybe two—would lead me to think Golden State could have an opportunity to steal one on the road, it's kind of hard to ignore Denver's 38-3 record at home this year. Stephen Curry's a straight-up stud who can create his own shot, but Denver's showcased the depth that I thought would help them win their division this year. The Warriors simply do not have the defense they're going to need to get out of the first round.

San Antonio Spurs over Los Angeles Lakers in seven games

As I said, I consider this to be my sort of rooting interest this year—even though I'm honestly thinking the Spurs aren't going to be as threatening with the injuries they're dealing with. This series, however, should be winnable for San Antonio since the Lakers under Mike D'Antoni have yet to meet a defense they're willing to play. That glaring weakness is likely to be exposed by a Spurs team that I haven't forgotten scored more than 100 points against a much stronger defense in Chicago—in another one of those games without the three guys that Stern fined Pops for not playing when there were bigger TV ratings at stake. Without Kobe Bryant, San Antonio should make the Lakers pay for every mistake. Los Angeles finished the season strong and won't go quietly, but I think I might be generous here in thinking the Lakers can take this one to the limit.

Chicago Bulls over Brooklyn Nets in seven games

OK, this is series where I think a lot of people are pinching their noses while making their picks. It's the traditional four-five matchup where there's certainly two evenly matched teams that are both incredibly likely to be immediately dispatched in the next round. This series very much has that feel, but in the end, I like Tom Thibodeau a helluva lot more than P.J. Carlesimo. The series is going to swing on variables, maybe on a nightly basis. Joe Johnson could propel the Nets to one win, but Nate Robinson might have his game where he goes apeshit and carries the team. Part of me expects a particularly painful early exit, but a larger part of me believes Thibs would never stand for it. An opening round loss would be the second in a row, after all. Basketball's new to Brooklyn, and the playoffs are relatively new to this group of Nets.

Boston Celtics over New York Knicks in seven games

And at long last, we come to my biggest upset pick. The Knicks face overwhelming pressure to finally get out of the first round, and there are indeed still many who think New York could even live up to its billing as the two-seed and really challenge the Heat. I, however, remain a believer that Doc Rivers, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett live to compete in the playoffs. Oh, and the whole recent headline news in Boston offers that inspiration that you just know is going to be mentioned at every single opportunity. So maybe a couple calls here, a couple calls there, and well, let the conspiracy theories begin.