Round One NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: No Shortened Path Here

When the NHL lockout finally ended, this was the moment that I was perhaps most looking forward to, the one I would have missed the most had the season been lost. While I have been sort of half-viewing portions of the NBA Playoffs thus far, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are an entirely different beast this time of year. I cannot turn away from any game on television—even those not involving the beloved Blackhawks. Indeed, over the coming days, I am hoping to stay up until the wee hours of the morning to watch multiple-overtime contests. Even if there is no late-night hockey, some regular prime time or weekend afternoon playoff hockey should be every bit as satisfying.

In years way past, I used to be pretty good at the predicting business when it came to the NHL Playoffs, but my performance has left a lot to be desired for the last couple years. I will hope to post a more successful record this year, but more than anything, I am ultimately just hoping for a certain outcome.

There's maybe three series that I have relative confidence in, but the remaining five could basically go either way. Still, here's how I see this first round unfolding in descending order of confidence:

Chicago Blackhawks over Minnesota Wild in five games

I will say that I am fully prepared for the Blackhawks to come out tonight and drop the opening game at the United Center. After that, however, I think they'll prove why they are far and away the superior team. Had this been the Blue Jackets (or even the Red Wings), I might be a little more nervous—what with Ray Emery being out at the moment and all. Fortunately, Chicago draws a Minnesota team that finished the regular season on anything but a high note. I expect the Wild to certainly put up a fight, but not enough to legitimately threaten this season's Cup dreams for the Hawks.

Boston Bruins over Toronto Maple Leafs in five games

It will certainly be a rousing environment when playoff hockey returns to Toronto, but I don't think it's going to be a very lasting feeling. The Bruins have their own concerns to address if they are going to live up to my expectations to win the Eastern Conference, but I think they got the better end of the deal by missing out on a division title and having to play the Leafs instead of a potential matchup with the Islanders. Yes, somebody needs to locate Milan Lucic before these playoffs start, but Toronto did not finish the year on all that strong of a note. Boston is not fielding as strong of a team as it did two years ago when it won the Cup, but what it's got right now should still be able to overwhelm the Maple Leafs.

Pittsburgh Penguins over New York Islanders in seven games

I'm admittedly giving the Isles a bit more credit than most others are in this series, but New York's other hockey team showed real encouraging signs in the final stretch of the year. The Islanders were among those competing for a No. 5 seed, but alas, here they are facing perhaps the favorite to win the whole damn thing. That said, Pittsburgh is going to be feeling the pressure to perform after making the biggest midseason acquisition by getting Jerome Iginla from Calgary (not to mention Brendan Morrow), while New York can play a little loose with the "just happy to be here" attitude. Marc-Andre Fleury seems destined to shit the bed at least once, and I'm inclined to believe that the Pens are going to get a good scare here before simply blowing out the Isles in a seventh game back in Pittsburgh.

Detroit Red Wings over Anaheim Ducks in six games

The upset that won't even be that much of an upset. If anything, it seems like a majority of the picks I've seen have Detroit advancing here, which tells you how much faith people have in Bruce Boudreau. The Anaheim coach knows he's got a playoff shadow to get out from, but the Ducks did not finish the year on the same strong note they had going when they were nipping at the Blackhawks' heels mideseason. The Red Wings, conversely, rediscovered their mojo when the playoffs were still in doubt, and I expect them to be able to more than hang with a well-balanced Anaheim team. The Ducks have two solid goaltenders that are going to require Detroit to be on top of their game, but ultimately, I think the Red Wings will be able to better control the puck and take advantage of enough scoring opportunities to advance.

San Jose Sharks over Vancouver Canucks in six games

No love for Vancouver, I suppose. I know that there's many who feel that the Canucks are being overlooked as a very real favorite in the West, but the Sharks should not be taken lightly either. Both teams finished the regular season on strong notes, almost making it a shame that they have to meet in the first round. Still, both teams are also under considerable pressure to make up for the letdowns of playoffs past. Cory Schneider gives a little more reason for pause than there would be if Roberto Luongo was still starting between the pipes for Vancouver, but call it a gut feeling that San Jose is going to come to compete and prevail in six very close games.

Ottawa Senators over Montréal Canadiens in seven games

It should be a spirited matchup between two Canadian clubs, but I'm skeptical how legit the Habs really are. The Sens slid in the standings because of injuries, but they're healthier now and I expect them to give the Canadiens fits. Craig Anderson has been as good as any goaltender when he was healthy, and the return of Erik Karlsson helps Ottawa have a blue line counter to Norris Trophy front-runner P.K. Subban. Montréal simply was not very convincing in the final month of the regular season, and I expect the Senators to expose every weakness.

St. Louis Blues over Los Angeles Kings in seven games

It's going to be physical series that relies almost entirely on which elite goaltender plays more up to his abilities—maybe even beyond them. Last season, the Kings made quick work of the Blues (as L.A. did with pretty much every team), and I highly doubt ant St. Louis player has forgotten that. The Kings are still the fairly loaded team that they had last year, but the Blues are rolling four stronger lines this season. And ever since being at risk of not making the playoffs at all, a 12-3 record over the final 15 games has St. Louis rolling at just the right time. More specifically, Brian Elliott went 11-2-0 with a 1.28 goals-against average, .948 save percentage and three shutouts in the final month. Los Angeles got extra rest to get ready for its Cup defense this year, but it certainly seems like the Blues found their own groove at just the right time.

Washington Capitals over New York Rangers in seven games

This is the one series that I have gone back and forth on ever since the matchups were locked in for the Eastern Conference. The Rangers were near-universal favorites to win the conference before the puck was ever dropped this year, and they recovered to secure a No. 6 seed. The Caps won the typically woeful Southeast, which impresses just about nobody these days. While New York has improved in the second part of the year, I'm more impressed with the recent play of Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green. It's the fourth time in five year that these clubs are meeting in the playoffs, and both would love to exceed what are now being viewed as fairly disappointing seasons. A couple crucial injuries for the Rangers ultimately leads me to go with the Caps.