NHL Stanley Cup Final Prediction: More Than a Feeling

That title's play on the Boston song title was admittedly swiped form a Facebook post by 670 The Score's Nick Shepkowski. I'll elaborate on that when I get to my pick at the bottom of this post, but I need to take a moment to note that, Stanley Cup winner aside, the rest of my original preseason picks for winners and losers of the last round and now, hopefully, this round, have been right on. I will elaborate on that overall performance this year in the final NHL post of this season, when I am hopefully celebrating Chicago's second Stanley Cup in four years.

Rest assured, this time around is nowhere near the gimme that 2010 felt like when the Blackhawks drew the seventh-seeded Philadelphia Flyers. Indeed, the Boston Bruins have simply been playing lights-out hockey ever since the remarkable opening round Game 7 comeback against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Of course, they've been doing it in the Eastern Conference, so make of it what you will. Me? I've got my doubts. Of course, I'm a tad biased.

Somewhat unbelievably, ESPN's Craig Custance was the only other individual aside from myself of the 23 personalities I'm tracking who got both of the series correct in last round's picks. As we head into the last series of the year, here's how everybody stands (numbers in second set of parentheses indicating total number of "exactas" for last round, or series through first two rounds correctly predicted in exact number of games):

1. (1) Nicholas Cotsonika, Yahoo: 12-2 (4) 
2. (2) Joe McDonald, ESPN: 11-3 (6) 
3. (3) Chris Peters, CBS Sports: 11-3 (4)
3. (3) Katie Strang, ESPN: 11-3 (4)
5. (10) Craig Custance, ESPN: 11-3 (3)
5. (5) Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 11-3 (3)
7. (7) Barry Melrose, ESPN: 11-3 (2)
8. (9) Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 10-4 (5)
9. (10) Steve Levy, ESPN: 10-4 (3)
9. (5) Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy: 10-4 (3) 
11. (15) YOURS TRULY: 10-4 (2) 
12. (8) Adam Gretz, CBS Sports: 9-5 (6)
13. (15) Greg Wyshynski, Yahoo: 9-5 (2)
14. (17) Scott Burnside, ESPN: 9-5 (1)
14. (17) Sam McCaig, Yahoo: 9-5 (1)
16. (19) Ryan Lambert, Puck Daddy: 9-5 (0)
17. (12) John Buccigross, ESPN: 8-6 (4)
18. (13) Darryl Dobbs, Puck Daddy: 8-6 (3)
18. (13) James Murphy, ESPN: 8-6 (3)
20. (22) Brian Stubits, CBS Sports: 8-6 (1) 
21. (23) Linda Cohn, ESPN: 7-7 (3)
22. (20) Dmitry Chesnokov, Puck Daddy: 7-7 (2) 
22. (20) Paul Grant, ESPN: 7-7 (2) 

Judging by the amount of Boston picks this round from those names, maybe I can still crack the Top 10 since I'm unsurprisingly taking:

Chicago Blackhawks over Boston Bruins in five games

I know, I know ... five games denotes a serious lack of respect for Boston, you tell me. The Bruins, after all, closely resemble that Red Wings squad that pushed the Blackhawks to seven games and damn near knocked them out in the second round. And, oh, did we mention Conn Smythe frontrunning goaltender Tuukka Rask? Sorry, all of this is starting to sound really repetitive to me. My head tells me to pick the Hawks in six, but my heart believes that this team really, really wants to wrap this bitch up on the ice at the United Center. Yes, Rask has been dynamite in between the pipes, but man, didn't we just enter the last series against Los Angeles with a certain reigning Conn Smythe goalie being supposedly unbeatable? Yeah, that didn't work out so well. I fully expect Boston to dominate the faceoffs and Chicago's power play to continue to be goddamned clown shoes for two minutes, but other than those two areas, almost everything else favors the Blackhawks. The top line for the Bruins has been amassing points at a staggering rate, but Chicago has also been shutting down supposed stars for one team after another all throughout these playoffs. I believe the Blackhawks have allowed more goals on the power play than they have on the penalty kill, but either way, it's not much and the 20th-ranked power play of Boston doesn't exactly have me trembling. I could very well be wrong about the number of games it takes for Chicago to close this out (and NBC is certainly hoping I am, you know, as avid readers of this blog, of course), but my belief is that Corey Crawford has been overshadowed by the opposing goaltender in every single one of the last three series. On the biggest stage in hockey, I expect him to secure the votes that make him this year's Conn  Smythe winner. As Hockey Prospectus pointed out, Crawford's 1.74 GAA and .935 save percentage in 17 games thus far is "significantly better" than the 2.63 GAA and .910 save percentage Antti Niemi had in the Cup season of 2010. The good news for Chicago is that unlike Niemi, Crawford's locked up for at least one more year. The fairweather fans are bound to be disappointed when Bryan Bickell signs a ludicrous deal elsewhere, but everybody's going to be thrilled for several months when Lord Stanley returns to the Windy City. Perhaps my only complaint will be the number of Facebook acquaintances who inevitably change their profiles to pictures of them with the Cup, but that's a rather small price to pay for what has otherwise been an incredible season. I fully expect a satisfying conclusion.