Thursday, May 30, 2013

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Conference Finals Predictions: Familiar Faces

Before last night's Game 7 at the United Center, the five teams still remaining in the Stanley Cup Playoffs were also the last five winners of the coveted trophy. With the elimination of the Detroit Red Wings, the final four teams are, coincidentally, the last four Stanley Cup winners. If this manner holds in which the team with the longest period of time since its last championship is the next to be eliminated, then Pittsburgh would be the first club to fall in the upcoming round and Chicago would follow immediately after with Los Angles repeating as Cup winners by beating Boston. That, of course, would involve, both top seeds falling in this round, which is a scenario that I'm guessing not many people are ready to believe (or in my case, prefer).

Rest assured, if nothing else, both of these last two series before the 2013 Stanley Cup Final should be nothing less than more thrilling, must-see hockey, as has been more or less the standard established throughout this year's playoffs.

I was right in my predictions last round in regards to the Western Conference, but completely erred with my Eastern Conference picks. My 2-2 record last round fell far short of the other "experts," no less than eight of whom got all four series correct. As a result, here's how the 23 individuals I'm tracking stand after two rounds (numbers in second set of parentheses indicating total number of "exactas" for last round, or series through first two rounds correctly predicted in exact number of games):


1. (3) Nicholas Cotsonika, Yahoo: 11-1 (4)
2. (2) Joe McDonald, ESPN: 10-2 (6) 
3. (5) Chris Peters, CBS Sports: 10-2 (4)
3. (5) Katie Strang, ESPN: 10-2 (4)  
5. (3) Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 10-2 (3)
5. (8) Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy: 10-2 (3)
7. (11) Barry Melrose, ESPN: 10-2 (2)
8. (1) Adam Gretz, CBS Sports: 9-3 (6) 
9. (13) Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 9-3 (5)
10. (5) Craig Custance, ESPN: 9-3 (3)
10. (15) Steve Levy, ESPN: 9-3 (3)
12. (14) John Buccigross, ESPN: 8-4 (4)
13. (8) James Murphy, ESPN: 8-4 (3) 
13. (15) Darryl Dobbs, Puck Daddy: 8-4 (3) 
15. (8) Greg Wyshynski, Yahoo: 8-4 (2) 
15. (11) YOURS TRULY: 8-4 (2) 
17. (17) Scott Burnside, ESPN: 8-4 (1) 
17. (22) Sam McCaig, Yahoo: 8-4 (1)
19. (19) Ryan Lambert, Puck Daddy: 8-4 (0)
20. (22) Dmitry Chesnokov, Puck Daddy: 7-5 (2) 
20. (20) Paul Grant, ESPN: 7-5 (2) 
22. (17) Brian Stubits, CBS Sports: 7-5 (1) 
23. (20) Linda Cohn, ESPN: 6-6 (3)


I clearly won't be overtaking the top spot this year, but here's my picks for this round anyway:


Chicago Blackhawks over Los Angeles Kings in six games

With Jonathan Quick now having taken over as the leading Conn  Smythe candidate, it is not terribly surprising for many observers to now believe that a Kings repeat seems imminent. Each team, however, will represent one another's biggest challenge so far in this year's playoffs. I completely agree with the conclusion drawn by Hockey Prospectus for this series, noting that the champs are not shooting or scoring at the frequency they did last year. And considering the Blues were anemic when it came to offense and the Sharks were inconsistent, the Blackhawks could emerge victorious merely by averaging about three goals per game. Again, that could be easier said than done with Quick in between the pipes and indeed the Los Angeles goaltender is remarkably improved from the version Chicago faced during the regular season, but I have to believe that if the Blackhawks control the puck as much as St. Louis and San Jose did against the Kings, then the goals are going to come. The one thing that I'm bracing myself for has to be Chicago's penchant for allowing late goals, something that Hell-A has done on more than a few occasions already in these playoffs. There could very well be at least one game in which the 'Hawks let the Kings snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, but in the end, I think Chicago simply has too many lines of contributors to not be advancing back to the Stanley Cup Final.

Boston Bruins over Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games

OK, no idea and can't be happy with whichever team I pick. If nothing else, it's going to be one helluva series. There's some obviously high expectations for Jerome Iginla, who voided what appeared to be a trade to the Bruins in order to join the Penguins. To make up for the stunning acquisition-that-wasn't, Boston went out and got former Pittsburgh star Jaromir Jagr. I said last round that I had probably picked the Penguins for the last time, but the Pens admittedly looked a lot better defensively in their dominance of Ottawa with a healthy amount of blocked shots. Oh, and the offense looked every bit as explosive as we all assumed it would be. However, the Bruins' little brush with playoff death in Game 7 against Toronto seems to have been the spark that has helped this team regain its Stanley Cup form. I've got my doubts about both goalies, although either one is also capable of playing near lights out on any given night. Again, this really could go either way, and about the only thing that I'm confident in at this point is that it will go the limit. Hell, I'd even be willing to bet it goes to overtime in the deciding game, whatever that's worth. Perhaps it's be just trying to stick with my initial prediction from the beginning of the season that Boston would be this year's runners-up, but I think the Bruins will give the Penguins a challenge unlike anything they've dealt with thus far and in the end, Pittsburgh's star-studded roster falls just one goal short.

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