As has been the case in recent years, I feel like I'm falling further and further out of the movie loop. I've seen a few of the potential nominees, but I'm guessing that it's highly unlikely I'll have viewed all the of the films by the time the awards are handed out. Of course, seeing the movies can have just as much negative impact on guessing as not seeing them (there's no real sentimental favorite thus far that I'm plugging in here despite odds being against him/her/it). Anyway, I'll probably return to this post again on Sunday to add reaction, regrets, and all that good stuff.
(UPDATE: While I typically make my nomination reactions a separate post, I've simply added my thoughts in blue to these initial predictions on a category-by-category basis.)
BEST ACTOR
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford, All is Lost
I'm avoiding three younger potential nominees, including Christian Bale, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio—who seems a popular enough pick among others I've seen, but destined to be snubbed in comparison to the five I'm going with. The riskiest pick here, I suspect, could be Redford.
RESULT: 3/5
RESULT: 3/5
The absence of a nomination for Hanks had to be the biggest surprise of this year's nominations. He was pretty widely considered a shoo-in, although I was right to guess Redford was most in danger. The Academy instead invited two younger actors in Bale and DiCaprio, and their nominations speak to the popularity of their films among the Academy. Leo getting in shows that Wolf is not as loathed as some feared it might be, but Bale's nomination is sign that is sure to lead to Hustle becoming the new Best Picture favorite. Too early for me to designate a favorite to actually win, as I'll be waiting to see who gets the SAG first. I figure it's between Dern, DiCaprio, and McConaughey.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams is about as close to the sentimental pick as I can get, as I think she'd be a deserving nominee here. However, consensus seems to indicate that she'd be hard-pressed yo unseat any of the five above. I guess Streep would be one of the likelier omissions because of what is supposed to be lukewarm reaction to August, but I'm not betting against Meryl.
RESULT: 4/5
RESULT: 4/5
So, I should be happy that Adams got in, seeing as I think she was the most award-worthy performance in Hustle. Thompson's snub here was a mild surprise, but proved I was right to doubt how well Mr. Banks was going to fare (some observers included it among Best Picture nominee predictions). Blanchett still seems to be likely winner.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Brühl, Rush
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
This almost feels like one where I'll end up going three for five, with Brühl and Gandolfini being the biggest risks. Still, the postmortem nod to Gandolfini seems too hard to pass up for the Academy. Will Forte, Tom Hanks, Jonah Hill, or Bradley Cooper could all be spoilers. And there may even be a name that I'm later explaining how I forgot to mention.
RESULT: 3/5
Well, looks like I was dead-on about missing two of my picks, both of whom I obviously anticipated being incorrect. Much like the Best Actor race, the nominations for Cooper and Hill again show that support for the respective Hustle and Wolf are stronger than I gave either credit for. So much for spreading the love around. And also like the lead actor race, I think I'm going to need some SAG guidance before declaring a likely winner. Leto's probably got the flashiest role of the bunch, but Fassbender can't be ruled out.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
OK, so I'm clearly missing Oprah Winfrey here, but I simply just have a gut feeling that she's the biggest headline snub in the stories immediately being written in the hours after the announcement. It's very likely I'm wrong about that, but that's my biggest gamble. Thus far. There's numerous other spoilers out there, with Sally Hawkins my most likely to be red-framed when I update the picks. I don't rule out Octavia Spencer showing up here either.
RESULT: 5/5
RESULT: 5/5
So, the gamble paid off (not literally, of course). I correctly figured that Hawkins would replace Oprah, seeing as supporting ladies in Woody's films so often end up getting Oscar nod. Nyong'o is the likely favorite over the ever-popular Lawrence, but I'm really pulling for Squibb. And I'm already anticipating that I'll make her an upset pick in a few weeks.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Dallas Buyers Club is probably the riskiest pick among this group, with Gravity, Saving Mr. Banks, and Inside Llewyn Davis probably being the most likely replacements.
Yep. Not much to add here. Hustle is probably the early favorite, but I could easily see there being enough votes going Jonze's way.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
I'd probably replace August or Wolf with Captain Phillips if I had to make one change, but oh well.
RESULT: 4/5
I should have better gauged the dissatisfaction with August, but whatever. I the long run, this is 12 Year's award to lose.
BEST DIRECTOR
David O. Russell, American Splendor
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
The only name here I think I'm taking a risk on is Payne, who could easily be usurped by Paul Greengrass, maybe Spike Jonze, or possibly even the Coen brothers.
RESULT: 5/5
RESULT: 5/5
Another good gamble, this time on Payne. Based upon the early predictions I've seen, even though the Picture race seems to be between 12 Years and Hustle, it could actually be Cuarón winning this category for his mesmerizing work in Gravity.
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniels' The Butler
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
Ever since the Academy converted this category to a mystery number between five and 10, I've always gone with eight. And it's usually nine. But since this was what I understand was a good year for cinema, I'm going with the full 10. The Butler is probably the riskiest bet for me (seeing as I'm saying Oprah will get left out), but it's also risky to assume Her, Llewyn Davis, and Dallas Buyers Club all sneak in. Hell, Nebraska is no sure thing. Even then, it's possible that I could have all five of those wrong and they could still be replaced by more than one of another slew of films I'm ignoring, including Saving Mr. Banks, Blue Jasmine, Philomena, Fruitvale Station and maybe August: Osage County.
Maybe I'll finally, finally start guessing nine nominees next year. And then the Academy will nominate 10. Or eight. Just to fuck with me. Either way, I was 37 out of 45 (yeah, there were only 44 nominees, but I predicted 45) this year and Philomena was still something of a surprise here, even if I did have it among my possible spoilers. As always, it will be a two-picture race from here on out, with 12 Years having been anointed the front-runner status as soon as it was released while Hustle is the late-charging threat. I had a really, really hard time believing that anything would unseat 12 Years, but after Hustle got nominations in all four of the acting categories instead of the mere one I had initially pegged, I'm starting to wonder.
For the record, Hustle and Nebraska are the only nominated films of this group that I've actually seen (I "liked" both, although neither is going to be a new favorite of mine for either director). I'm ruling out the likelihood I'll see all nine movies before the show, but I know that the wife has expressed an interest in both Dallas Buyers Club and Her. She's also likely to use the Oscar nomination to justify seeing Wolf, although I'm not psyched about having to sit through a three-hour Scorcese film in the theater where I cannot push pause for bathroom (and maybe cigarette) breaks. I'll probably push for 12 Years and Captain Phillips, but I'm guessing I won't see Gravity or Philomena until later on down the road.
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