To three-peat or not to three-peat? The Miami Heat's regular season has been very reminiscent of the two three-peats I saw the Chicago Bulls accomplish in the 1990s, as the defending champions spared themselves of pushing too hard in the regular season in order to make sure everyone would be healthy for what would be a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. While the Eastern Conference was something of a joke for much of the year, the way the pairings ended up no longer means the Heat will just coast to another title. Chances are good Miami will have two fairly difficult series before they even get to deal with whomever comes out of the West.
If nothing else, we've at least got some reason to pay a little more attention before June now.
Here, for now, are my picks that I'm confident are pretty much the same as everyone else's this round. Since so many other pundits do not consistently post their picks for each and every series, I'm forgoing keeping track of others. Sorry.
And here, at long last, are my own stabs at the first round:
The wife will presumably hold this against me, but Dallas would need career performances from the entire team to pull off an upset here. Spurs are already well on their way to making me reconsider my original pick for NBA Champions this year.
It appears to be something of a joke at first glance, but Charlotte's obviously improved. Enough to suddenly stop LeBron? No, of course not. My guess is that the Bobcats take a do-or-die Game 4 that Miami phones in. Charlotte is capable of playing strong defense on any given night, but there's simply no way the Heat gets bounced in the first round. My guess is they're never once placed in any serious jeopardy of that happening.
With Kevin Durant seemingly a lock to win MVP this year and OKC having made a serious push to be bona fide contenders this season, the Thunder aren't too likely to waste any time disposing of Memphis. Oklahoma City's got bigger fish to fry and nobody on the Grizzlies (or maybe anywhere else in the league right now) is capable of stopping Durant whenever he feels like scoring. I assume the Grizzlies will steal one, probable in Memphis, but are not likely to ever really be in this series.
Once considered by many to be the best team in the conference during the first half of the year, Indiana has struggled since the All-Star Break. It remains to be seen whether they're capable of regaining championship form, but it would be stunning for the Pacers to somehow lose four games to a distinctly mediocre Atlanta team. The Hawks would be a different story with Al Horford, but Paul Millsap alone (as good as he is) can't carry Atlanta any further than he's already gotten them.
In all honesty, my preseason Western Conference pick has given me multiple reasons to stand by them. Doc Rivers is doing everything that Vinny Del Negro could not to get the best from the Clippers, and that should be evident here against a relatively underachieving Warriors team that's likely to be replacing their head coach after getting bounced in the first round. Steph Curry will have at least one wildly unstoppable Steph Curry game, but not four, which is about the only way Golden State could advance.
Things really couldn't have worked out better for the hard-working Bulls, now seemingly favored to get back to the Eastern Conference Finals despite having lost Derrick Rose (again) and trading away Luol Deng. I'll have further thoughts on what's up with Chicago in their Fourth Quarter wrap I had wanted to post before these picks, but you know, computer issues. Anyway, the Bulls defense will again make up for any scoring struggles here.
The Nets are like the East's version of the Spurs, as in they've been laughed at for being "too old" since the season tipped off. Despite the chaos that ensued when Jason Kidd struggled out of the gate, the team's played remarkably better ever since the New Year and they are already looking to be the first real challenge for the defending champion Heat in the nest round. Toronto's been a pleasant surprise this year, but experience should win out in the end here and Brooklyn will take advantage of any Raptors mistakes.
The Blazers could prove to be a difficult out, but Dwight Howard and James Harden will ultimately help Houston consistently outscore the improved Portland squad. Defense remains a concern with the Rockets, but Houston has enough scoring potential to advance.
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