The new playoff format certainly seems likely to take a solid first step toward building the intense, bitter division rivalries that the league is hoping for. There's bound to be some very competitive contests over the next couple of weeks, and there's reason to believe that nearly every one of the 16 teams has a chance of moving on to the next round. Of course, there's also the reality that a number of teams that seemed like possible Cup contenders will be gone after this first round (San Jose-Los Angeles, St. Louis-Chicago).
Still, there's going to be a compelling story or two develop somewhere in these playoffs, and I'm giddy at the thought of getting off work tomorrow evening to feast on playoff hockey all night. And the night after that. And the ... well, the wife's probably going to be home after more than a week out of town, so that'll be a little more tricky justifying any series not involving the Blackhawks. While I was initially thrilled to think that our daughter was due a couple weeks after the Final likely concludes, I was reminded today that all four of the children her mother delivered arrived two to four weeks early. So whereas I once joked that my wife would go into labor as soon as Chicago went into overtime in a deciding Stanley Cup game, that now seems even more likely. For now though, I'll just try to enjoy as much of the opening round as I can.
Unlike the NBA Playoffs, I think most of the hockey observers that make round-by-round predictions on other sites don't suddenly disappear in the middle of the tournament. So I'll be attempting to compare my own success/failure rate to their as we go. Yahoo hasn't posted much of anything on their Playoffs page yet, and the staff at Puck Daddy will presumably be posting theirs tomorrow, but for now here's the picks from the folks at the Mother Ship:
These are the predictions of CBS Sports' experts:
And here, at long last, are my own stabs at the first round:
Boston Bruins over Detroit Red Wings in six games
On paper, there's a very good reason that nobody is picking against the Presidents' Cup-winning Bruins. I don't know that there's any real category where you could give Detroit an edge as Boston boasts multiple 20 goal scorers, even their forwards play defense, and what shots actually get through still have to get by Tuuka Rask, once again in Vezina discussion. The Red Wings, beleaguered by injuries all year long, may feel fortunate just to have made the playoffs. Still, the fact that they're here speaks to the genius of Mike Babcock. And I cannot dismiss that one way or another, he's going to find a way to steal a game or two from the heavily-favored Bruins. It's perfectly understandable for people to have some doubts that the most dominant team in the regular season can carry that success over to the playoffs, but there's just going to be too many things that have to go Detroit's way in order for them to win four games here and pull off an upset of this magnitude. Jimmy Howard's decidedly "meh" regular season numbers don't give me enough reason to believe he's going to be able to stop the likely onslaught he's about to face.
Pittsburgh Penguins over Columbus Blue Jackets in six games
Now here's where the upsets begin to seem more tempting, but a part of me just feels that the Pens feel there's something to prove after being swept out the Eastern Finals last year. The Blue Jackets are a lovely story about an expansion squad finally getting another taste of the postseason. They've got a goaltender who could turn into one of the most difficult to score on of any in these playoffs, but he's going to be put to the test against Pittsburgh. The Columbus defense gives up shot attempts, and the Penguins will make the Jackets pay for any time they spend in the penalty box. The Pittsburgh penalty kill also cannot be overlooked, the fifth best in the league this year. If there's anything we've learned from playoffs past, it's the Pens defense that can suddenly disappear. If Sergei Bobrovsky suddenly refuses to let anything get past him, a single Columbus goal could be a game-winner. It's not out of the question for Pittsburgh to find themselves in a more difficult series than they hoped for, but ultimately I expect the Penguins to advance.
Colorado Avalanche over Minnesota Wild in six games
Semyon Varlamov essentially carried the Avalanche this far, and he'll presumably be the reason that Colorado advances as far as it does. The goaltending is the biggest advantage the Avs have heading into this series, with the Colorado power play also likely to thrive on a Wild penalty kill that was fourth-worst in the league. Minnesota's got some concern about their own man between the pipes, but the Wild could give themselves a chance here if they do what they do best and limit the number of shots from a Colorado team that isn't particularly great at getting them off. However, even assuming that Minnesota does that to keep the Avalanche off the scoreboard, I'm not entirely sold they can turn around and fire off enough shots on the Colorado end of the ice to get a few past Varlamov. The Wild will have to play some virtually flawless hockey four times to advance here, and I don't see them being able to do that any more than twice.
Chicago Blackhawks over St. Louis Blues in six games
There's clearly a rooting interest here that might be affecting my better judgment, but the St. Louis Blues have looked like a complete disaster for going on two weeks now. I don't see how they can suddenly correct all that ails them just because the playoffs have started. Of course, this is not to say the defending champion Blackhawks are invincible. Corey Crawford will need to regain his form from last year's run quite quickly, and there is some concern about how the team will adjust to having Toews and Kane return to lineup—or even how healthy and effective the two stars will be. When they first met earlier this season, the Blues narrowly outlasted the 'Hawks. However, Chicago regained its form and the champs dominated the final two meeting, outscoring St. Louis to the tune of a combined 8-2 margin. The Blackhawks should be able to advance here by playing smart and staying out of the box, something that will only get more important as the physical Blues attempt to get in Chicago's heads.
San Jose Sharks over Los Angeles Kings in seven games
We're now in the coin-flipping territory of these matchups, as I can see each of these remaining series going either way. In this particular California rematch from last season's playoffs, I default to the Sharks for two reasons: home ice advantage and I picked them to win the Cup at the beginning of the year. Only one of those factors really matters. Antti Niemi has not looked to be in his 2010 Cup-winning form at all this year, so Los Angeles probably has good reason to feel it has a goaltending edge. However, the Kings haven't exactly looked like an offense that's going to put any goalie to the test this year. L.A. remains a defense-first team, and that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Sharks' big names to produce on offense. While the Kings took the season series, San Jose is deep and determined. Oh, and again, they've got home ice.
Philadelphia Flyers over New York Rangers in seven games
The Flyers improved rather remarkably during the season while the Rangers also eventually stated making some strides under new coach Alain Vigneault. I really don't see one team having a stark advantage over the other when it's five-on-five in the series, leaving me to suspect that there's going to be a number of games decided by crucial penalties. Whether it's on the power play or the penalty kill, I like Philly better in both areas. Henrik Lundqvist is yet another goalie who wouldn't surprise anybody if he wound up being among the best in the playoffs, and a strong showing from him could be enough to carry New York into the next round. However, the Flyers boast a formidable top three lines with seven players who scored more than 20 goals this year.
Tampa Bay Lightning over Montréal Canadiens in seven games
This could not be more of a guess. I waffled back and forth on this one perhaps more than any other pick, most of which were immediately decided and I stayed with. On the one hand, the Bolts' Vezina candidate Ben Bishop sustained an injury at the worst possible time. On the other hand, his replacement Anders Lindback could not have looked better filling in during the final week of the season. As for the Canadiens, your talking about one of the best penalty killing teams in the league. Of course, you're also talking about a Montreal team that couldn't convert on any of its last 23 power play opportunities. For every plus on one team, there's also a minus. With the Lightning holding home ice, I'm ultimately going with Tampa.
Dallas Stars over Anaheim Ducks in seven games
And this is my biggest upset of the bunch, but I don't think it's terribly surprising. I picked against Bruce Boudreau's squad last year in the first round when second-seeded Anaheim fell in seven games to seventh-seeded Detroit. I admittedly think this Stars team is not as strong as that Red Wings team, and this year's Ducks may be better than last year's. However, Jonas Hiller's play has been reason for concern in Anaheim, and that spells a lot of trouble if a Dallas team that thrives on puck possession limits the number of chances for the Ducks on the other end of the ice. In the end, the Stars become just the latest group to render another Boudreau-led regular season otherwise meaningless.
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