NBA Playoff Conference Finals Predictions: Hoping for the Best, Preparing for the Worst

After an opening round that offered more stunningly competitive contests than we had been accustomed to in recent year, the conference semifinals weren't nearly the must-see TV I had been anticipating. With the exception of the Thunder-Clippers series, most of the remaining games were fairly one-sided affairs. The final four teams are invariably the same ones people had been pretty much anticipating all year long. While I think there's bound to be a few close games and terrific moments, I don't really think there's too much doubt that you're probably going to have to hold out hope that the Heat's threepeat bid fails in the Finals, not this round.


I went 2-2 on my picks last round, again getting none of the series right in terms of predicted length (again, aside from one that I had the winner wrong for):

Miami Heat over Indiana Pacers in six games

The Pacers made it a point all year long to get home court advantage precisely for this series. The fact that they got it would really mean something if Indiana had kept us believing it was an actual threat to knock off Miami. Instead, the Pacers crawled across the finish line, more or less claiming the top spot because the Heat effectively stopped caring about it. Since the playoffs started, Miami has been the far more consistently effective team. Well, LeBron has, at least. It would be fair to question some members of his supporting cast, but Indiana has been an up-and-down club that barely got by the sub-.500 Atlanta Hawks before surprisingly dispatching the Wizards last round in six games. At this point, I'm not even sure that I'm rooting for the Pacers to upset the Heat anymore, as what little of Indiana I've seen has not been terribly exciting to watch. Still, I do hold out some hope that the Pacers can at least give Miami a real scare. In the end though, I suspect I'm probably over on the length of the series I'm predicting. Well aware that the two teams over in the other conference could be waging a grueling battle, the Heat might very well be motivated to make this execution a quick sweep. Hopefully Indiana gives us a reason to give them any sort of chance.

San Antonio Spurs over Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games

The likely loss of Serge Ibaka for the series is another devastating injury blow for OKC one year after the club lost Russell Westbrook only a few games into last year's playoffs. Westbrook and MVP Kevin Durant will still be perfectly capable of taking over games and making amazing shots, even in the face of terrific defense. However, anybody familiar with my past predictions knows I'm a pretty big believer in San Antonio, and the team this year has seemed even more compelled to get back to the Finals and finish what it came up just short of accomplishing last season. Ultimately, I think Gregg Popovich remains a smarter coach than Scott Brooks, more capable of making key adjustments and drawing up plays that confuse opposing defenses. Again, I think I may be overshooting on the predicted length of the series here, but in this case, I do not rule out that I could very well be wrong about the predicted winner too. It was only a few years ago that a rolling San Antonio team took the first two games of the conference finals before Oklahoma City came back and won the next four. I cannot see that same thing happening to the Spurs again, but the Thunder have certainly the beneficiary of some questionable calls by officials and I have to believe that this is going to be the one series that offers up the tightest finishes hinging on key defensive plays. When it comes to defense, then the edge clearly goes to the Spurs, even though I'm confident that there will be at least a couple games where KD will be the following morning's lead story for a game-winning shot.