Friday, May 16, 2014

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Conference Finals Predictions: Rematches and Revivals

The Western Conference Finals ended up being what I had predicted last round, but the East turned out to be two upsets with the underdogs both knocking off the home teams in Game 7s. We're left with some fairly intriguing possibilities for this year's Stanley Cup Final, with the West featuring the last two Cup winners and the East boasting teams that last won it all in 1993 and 1994. In other words, we'll end up with one recent winner taking on a team that hasn't tasted success in two decades.

I'm guessing that while there will certainly be other individual heroes who score game-winning goals, much of the focus in both these conference finals will revolve heavily around the men in between the pipes for all four teams. The remaining goalies all have the potential to individually decide their respective series, and there's a very good chance that we'll be treated to several low-scoring goaltending duels. A single goal could be critical in both of these series, and both series could very well come down to which goalie allows the lone goal that results in the other team moving on to play for the Cup.

With the last round having just ended, no picks are posted yet and I'll try to remember to add them later (we're a little busy right now, what with, you know, a baby on the way). Still, here's how badly I've been faring in comparison to the experts from ESPN, CBS Sports, and Yahoo/Puck Daddy through the first two rounds.


1. (1) Paul Grant, ESPN: 9-3 (5)
2. (6) Tim Kavanagh, ESPN: 9-3 (4)
2. (3) Barry Melrose, ESPN: 9-3 (4)
4. (2) Sarah Goldstein, ESPN: 9-3 (3)
5. (9) Nicholas Cotsonika, Yahoo: 9-3 (2)
5. (10) Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 9-3 (2)
7. (13) Chris Peters, CBS Sports: 8-4 (5)
8. (14) Dennis Dodd, CBS Sports: 8-4 (4)
9. (6) Linda Cohn, ESPN: 8-4 (3)
10. (11) Steve Levy, ESPN: 8-4 (2)
10. (16) Katie Strang, ESPN: 8-4 (2)
10. (6) Brian Stubits, CBS Sports: 8-4 (2)
13. (18) John Buccigross, ESPN: 7-5 (5)
14. (23) Craig Custance, ESPN: 7-5 (3)
14. (23) Joe McDonald, ESPN: 7-5 (3)
16. (12) Scott Powers, ESPN: 7-5 (2)
17. (17) Daryl Dobbs, Puck Daddy: 7-5 (0)
18. (4) Sam McCaig, Yahoo: 6-2 (4)
19. (5) Ryan Lambert, Puck Daddy: 6-2 (3)
19. (20) Greg Wyshynski, Yahoo: 6-6 (3)
21. (14) Jen Neale, Puck Daddy: 6-6 (2)
21. (20) Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 6-6 (2)
21. (20) Harrison Mooney, Puck Daddy: 6-6 (2)
24. (18) Scott Burnside, ESPN: 5-7 (4)
25. (25) YOURS TRULY: 5-7 (2)

The upside, of course, is that I'll gladly trade last place here for another Blackhawks championship banner. And that's looking quite possible. That said, here's the two teams I've got moving on to play for the chance to life Lord Stanley:

Chicago Blackhawks over Los Angeles Kings in six games

You can't blame Chicago fans for being excited about the fact that the Blackhawks have home ice advantage for as long as they remain in the playoffs. Of course, we're coming off a round in which three teams with home ice all lost Game 7 in their buildings, and teams without home ice have won seven of the first dozen series. However, the Hawks have defied that trend, winning all six games at the United Center. Corey Crawford is finally starting to get the appreciation he has long deserved from Chicago fans, and I think he's more than capable of matching, if not outplaying Jonathan Quick. While the Kings' Conn Smythe winner from the team's 2012 run certainly has his stretches of brilliance, he's been relatively inconsistent in this year's playoffs. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews have been leading the way and I would expect them to continue to score big goals at key moments. The concern here is that L.A. is capable of playing a stifling defensive style that could closely resemble the Minnesota Wild style that gave Chicago more trouble than anybody had been anticipating. I've got some concerns about the Blackhawks defense, but the penalty kill has been strong and I simply suspect that they will not be denied a return trip to the Final.


Montréal Canadiens over New York Rangers in seven games

It's nearly impossible for me to prefer one of these goalies over the other, as both are likely to be extremely difficult to score on. In the end, I like Montréal's offense better than New York's and I think the Habs help their own chances by playing smart and staying out of the penalty box. The Rangers still do not strike me as having reliable threats among their forwards, and the power play has left a lot to be desired even if the Canadiens do find themselves shorthanded. Montréal also holds an advantage in the strength of its defense against that lackluster New York offense. I would guess that the limited scoring we'll see in the series will be the result of odd-man rushes created in transition by the Habs defense. Other than that, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rags hold an edge in puck possession most every game, but never really make much of any opportunities on the Canadiens' end of the ice.

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