Last year marked the first time that I scored my Oscar picks in a descending order of confidence fashion similar to how the pool works for the NFL season. Of course, I've only had two years worth of picks up here on BMC (presumably got drunk and forgot to post the other two years), but last year's score of
Ebert has said he "can't remember a year when it seemed easier to predict the Oscars" (1993, perhaps?), so I imagine that my picks for the "big eight" are pretty much what everybody else has. But I wouldn't call all eight of those locks and even then, that still leaves 16 other categories:
1. ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Peter Docter, Up
—As I said over on the Tumblr, this could become the easiest category to pick not just this year, but in all following years when whichever winner of this category is given away by also being nominated for Best Picture.
2. ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
—He plays an alcoholic, he gets to sing and play guitar, and he's Jeff-fucking-Bridges. This could be the longest ovation of the evening.
3. ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
—He's the key role to the terrific opening scene of the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and has won just about every major award leading up to this.
4. MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG): Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett; "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)," Crazy Heart
—It's the most popular of the bunch, which always helps. Let's just hope Ryan Bingham isn't at the bar this time when his name's called.
5. VISUAL EFFECTS: Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones, Avatar
—In a word: "Duh."
6. WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY):
—Best shot that a well-received film has at any award it's up for. In the Loop is your possible spoiler.
7. FILM EDITING: Bob Murawski and Chris Innis, The Hurt Locker
—The one category where Hurt Locker seems to have a clear advantage on Avatar.
8. DIRECTING: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
—James Cameron has publicly said he hopes she'll get it—which is mostly him admittedly hoping to help his Best Picture chances. Even if he hadn't said anything, I still would have had to believe there's enough members of the Academy who would love to let his ex-wife accept the award rather than have another "King of the World" moment.
9. ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
—There was speculation that she hadn't been campaigning enough, but who else can you really make a case for? Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick get to cancel each other out by being in the same film, while Penélope Cruz just won in this same category last year (not to mention that Nine was critically panned). I guess that leaves Maggie Gyllenhaal, who I love to dear pieces, but has to know that her first nomination is its own reward. Her day is coming though, mark my words.
10. MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE): Michael Giacchino, Up
—Pretty popular favorite, unless James Horner can ride an Avatar wave.
11. ART DIRECTION: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg (Art Direction); Kim Sinclair (Set Decoration), Avatar
—I'm tempted by The Young Victoria for one reason or another, but having not seen anybody else make a case for that, I'll play it safe with the one that's also got the Best Picture nomination.
12. COSTUME DESIGN: Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria
—The likely win here for Victoria factored into my Art Direction vote too, and the film's odds are better in this category that's absent of any Best Picture nominees or box office behemoths.
13. ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
—Yeah, I can't really believe it either and I'm tempted to pick Meryl Streep just out of wishful thinking (what's this bitch gotta do to finally win one again?), but Bullock's a comeback story who's almost a certainty to deliver a speech that the audience loves.
14. SOUND EDITING:
—I could see cases being made for Hurt Locker or even Star Trek, but still seems like one of the technical awards Avatar almost feels entitled to at this point.
15. SOUND MIXING: Paul N.J. Ottoson and Ray Beckett, The Hurt Locker
—Every year, I ask the same thing you're probably thinking right now. And I'm pretty sure they even explain it every year at the awards too, but since this one involves the dialogue, then I can't vote for Avatar.
16. MAKEUP: Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow, Star Trek
—One way of atoning for a perceived Best Picture snub?
17. WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY):
—Unlike my logic behind Up in the Air's chances among the adaptations, Basterds will likely get a winner out of Christoph Waltz, so this category isn't a make-or-break for the movie. That opens the door for The Hurt Locker if another Oscar doesn't feel like overkill.
18. DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens, The Cove
—The front-runner in a category where voters are actually required to have seen all five nominees. I don't know that the film about dolphin slaughter is going to offer the cuter feeling March of the Penguins rode to this same honor, but being about animals helps.
19. BEST PICTURE: Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro, The Hurt Locker
—We'll get our first idea of how 10 nominees and the new voting process affects the front-runners when the final award is announced. Avatar's big budget and box office take would probably make it the assumed winner in the days of five nominees, but with Academy voters now ranking their choices, The Hurt Locker seems less polarizing because the Iraq War film is more about the suspense involved in the daily life of defusing bombs and less about making a political statement.
20. CINEMATOGRAPHY:
—Avatar is the popular favorite, with a few people even making the case for The Hurt Locker. It all depends on whether you believe the Academy will view the black-and-white as helping or hurting White Ribbon's chances. Considering it took the top prize from the American Society of Cinematographers, I'm going to take that chance.
21. FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Juan José Campanella, The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos) [Argentina]
—Because it struck me as the coolest-sounding title of the bunch, although Israel's Ajami bears resemblance to the short single-word title winners of this category from the past, such as Kolya and Tsotsi. (I had to look that latter one up, but I remember the acceptance speech for the former using the child on the director's shoulders from the acceptance speech on movie posters for American theaters after the ceremony.)
22. DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
—I think all the nominees are available online, but who has time for that kind of research, right? I was torn between Last Truck and China's Unnatural Disaster, which almost certainly means one of the other three will end up winning instead.
23. SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
—Looking for back-to-back correct calls on this category for the first time since ... well, ever (probably).
24. SHORT FILM (ANIMATED): Nicolas Schmerkin, Logorama
—I'm tempted by A Matter of Loaf and Death since the still I saw bears resemblance to Wallace and Gromit, but logic doesn't usually work too well for me in this category.
UPDATE: So no overall improvement from last year: 18 out of 24 for the second consecutive year, but I slipped on proper placement of my picks and finished with
I think the Original Screenplay win for The Hurt Locker was the first major sign that it was going to be that film's night, although Up in the Air getting shutout completely—especially in that Adapted Screenplay category—was pretty stunning.
Charlize Theron wins the all-important Hottest Chick of the night too:
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