2009-10 NBA Predictions

Time for a quick break in the strictly NFL posting as I throw my NBA picks out there. Unlike last year, I'll actually take the time this year to add a few comments that I can later regret and hopefully work into my awful routine of predicting playoff series. It should be fun. Well, hopefully.

My hopes aren't as high for the Bulls as they are for the Blackhawks—or hell, even the Bears for that matter. So I'm already going into this season with basically no real games jumping out at me as "can't miss that one." Still, I know that come spring, I'll be wondering what I thought I'd be getting out of this NBA season. And seeing as the Lakers are entering this year as returning champs with arguably an improved roster—and keeping in mind how I feel about the fucking Lakers—well, my attitude can best be summed up as "ANYBODY BUT L.A."

The exception to that statement, of course, is the Clippers. I'd even be OK with that.

Last year's picks were hardly very expansive. I correctly called the Lakers to come out of the Western Conference, but instead of losing in the Finals like they should have if Dwight Howard didn't pull his best Shaquille O'Neal imitation by missing two critical free throws, well, you know how that turned out. Point is, Boston didn't represent the East, so I was wrong there. As for how my predicted conference standings panned out, I went 3/15 in the East and 1/15 in the West for exact finishes, although I got six of the eight playoff teams in the East and seven of the eight in the West which makes me sound like less of a dumbass than the previous statistic would have led you to believe.

That said, this year, I'm breaking down by division first:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic
Boston Celtics

Toronto Raptors

Philadelphia 76ers

New York Knicks

New Jersey Nets

Toughest call in this division has to be deciding between the Nets and the Knicks as to who's worse. Neither team seems to have any interest in this particular season, what with New York waiting to see if LeBron will fill that enormous hole they've got in their cap and New Jersey wondering if it's time to move to Brooklyn yet.

The Celtics are easily the class of the division, once again Sports Illustrated's pick to win it all, although I've got my concerns about how healthy this team can stay. Whatever ails them during the year won't prevent them from winning here and taking one of the top spots, but the question remains as to how well they'll all be when it matters most: the playoffs.

The Sixers and the Raptors should jockey for second, although I wouldn't expect either team to fnish much better than just over .500 and less than 50 wins. I'm giving the edge to the Raptors because the addition of Hedo Turkoglu along with Chris Bosh needing a big year as he heads into that free agent class you'll be hearing about, oh, only all year, helps Toronto get more wins than a Philly squad that certainly has some promising athleticism but also seems to be overly relying an Elton Brand who's clearly seen better days and a point guard position that's going to take time (and probably losses) to figure out.

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

The Cavaliers have nothing to prove until the playoffs, so they'll probably be playfully bitch-slapping the rest of the division all year with an occasional off-night. It would take something pretty extraordinary for Cleveland not to run away with this one.

The Bulls made some believers with their opening round loss in the playoffs—as strange as that may sound. In my mind, they essentially saved Vinny Del Negro's job and Derrick Rose should be able to take a major step forward now that Ben Gordon isn't around anymore. No, I don't know who's going to make up those points Gordon gave you, per se, but more touches for a variety of guys should do wonders. Much will depend on how Vinny handles the team and juggles the minutes, but most of the youngsters have already shown improvement.

The Pistons are a team I'm more comfortable expecting less from since they're capped-out with the roster they have—and while they've got scoring potential, I'm not expecting to hear too many people talking about solid defense or a great bench in Detroit. And I'm certainly not buying into any ideas about Ben Wallace's return being anything very meaningful. There are still some quality ballers on the Pistons and there's no reason to believe they can't make the playoffs with about a .500 record.

The Indiana Pacers can look forward to sending Danny Granger to the All-Star Game, but not much else. The Milwaukee Bucks still have Michael Redd, but how much hope can you really muster for a team that got rid of their next three top scorers?

Southeast
Orlando Magic

Atlanta Hawks

Miami Heat

Washington Wizards

Charlotte Bobcats

Again, Orlando's the popular and easy choice to win the division. Still, it's perfectly possible that four teams from the Southeast make the playoffs.

Atlanta's just as good as they were last year, which is to say they still aren't great but should be better than most clubs. The Heat are among the teams likeliest to get an entirely new look next year, but Dwayne Wade should make his usual MVP bid in helping will the team to victories and Jermaine O'Neal should perform in a contract year. And the Wizards seem to have the pieces in place to give a lot of teams real problems, although I'm not as big a believer as some but who doesn't love Flip Saunders?

Oh, and let us not forget that they did bring basketball back to Charlotte at some point, although they'll be spending most of the season trying to find somebody to score there.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest
Denver Nuggets

Portland Trailblazers

Utah Jazz

Oklahoma City Thunder

Minnesota Timberwolves
 

Probably the toughest division winner to call is in the Northwest, but I'll opt to retain my spot aboard the Denver bandwagon—you know, after arriving late for not picking the team to make the playoffs last season. Or at least I'm more comfortable with the Nuggets resembling enough of the Cinderella story they had last year than I am comfortable with the divison's other contender, the Blazers, growing up in the span of one year. I seriously question how many games Greg Oden is able to start, although the addition of Andre Miller could be the move that makes me regret putting Portland at second.

Either way, both those teams are playoff-bound, as will be the Utah Jazz. And that's more a testament to Jerry Sloan than anything, because the Jazz are hardly any different than the team they had last year which is to say that they could likely improve upon last year's eighth seed if they stay healthy, but who's your shooters on this team?

Both the Thunder and the T-Wolves are going to be consistently labeled as "too young," but both teams should have their share of highlights during the year even if neither ends up winning many games.

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Hornets

Houston Rockets

Memphis Grizzlies

I've listened to so many haters tell me the Spurs were "too old" for so long now that I guess it was only a matter of time before I started to adapt that logic as my own. As is so often the case this season, my primary concern comes with San Antonio's health. I believe Richard Jefferson will indeed be a nice fit for the Spurs, although I'm not sure he'll have as significant an impact as other new faces on other teams. Still, the Spurs should be the most likely to challenge L.A.'s run at home-court during the year.

The Mavs have the same aging concerns as their interstate rivals, but lack the bench to take the Southwest. They'll get into the playoffs and likely give their first-round opponent problems.

The charming playoff run the Hornets had a few years back now feels like ages ago and while the team made some nice moves to deepen their bench, there seems to be something lacking in the backcourt to help CP3 out. He'll probably be able to carry them into the playoffs, but not much farther beyond that.

The Rockets' chances have already been trashed by injuries before the season even tipped off, but Houston's so used to that, you're almost tempted to believe that a spirited effort from T-Mac could make them a playoff team. Almost tempted.

I'm willing to go on record that the Grizzlies will finish the year with the fewest assists of any team in the NBA. They may end up getting a high draft pick too.

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State Warriors

Sacramento Kings

I don't see how the Lakers don't run away with the division, let alone the top spot in the conference. There's nobody here to pose a threat, as I see it—and that includes Ron Artest. Perhaps the Hollywood environment will cause him to revert to some bad old habits, but I'm not counting on it. As it stands right now, the only thing stopping the Lakers will be themselves. I don't rule out a slow start for one second, but you know that a lengthy, double-digit type of winning streak or two is only a matter of time.

The lone team I nailed in their conference spot last year was Phoenix, just missing the playoffs. Without Shaq around to slow down the Suns anymore, I think Steve Nash and a very driven Amare Stoudemire push the pace and get Phoenix back into the playoffs.

The Clippers are becoming a boutique pick to grab one of the last spots in the West, but I think they'll end up having to wait until next year—although they'll actually stay in contention until the final month or so of the season.

Both the Warriors and the Kings could be competing for the cellar of the entire Western Conference, although I think Golden State has more talent (as well as more turmoil) and should finish better than Sacramento.

Opening Round Playoffs
#1 Cavaliers over #8 Raptors in 5 games

#2 Celtics over #7 Wizards in 5 games

#3 Magic over #6 Heat in 7 games

#5 Bulls over #4 Hawks in 6 games

#1 Lakers over #8 Hornets in 6 games

#2 Spurs over #7 Suns in 5 games

#3 Nuggets over #6 Jazz in 6 games

#5 Mavericks over #4 Trailblazers in 7 games

Conference Semifinals
#1 Cavaliers over #5 Bulls in 5 games

#2 Celtics over #3 Magic in 7 games

#1 Lakers over #5 Mavericks in 5 games

#2 Spurs over #3 Nuggets in 6 games

Conference Finals
#2 Celtics over #1 Cavaliers in 6 games

#1 Lakers over #2 Spurs in 7 games

NBA Finals
Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics in 6 games