Final Thoughts on 2010 NFL Season: Steps forward and back

I should be enjoying the fact that in recent years, the Super Bowl has actually resembled more of a football game than it did when I was growing up and the spectacle was almost always an annual one-sided blowout. So while I wasn't particularly thrilled with either team in this year's contest, I do admit to rooting for the Packers based upon:

a) Not wanting to see Ben Roethlisberger emerge victorious and inevitably lead to many storylines about "all he's overcome" this season (*cough* ESPN *cough*).

b) Knowing that a Green Bay win ties Aaron Rodgers with Brett Favre for Super Bowl titles, and that's gotta be eating the old man up from wherever he was watching the game.

Oh, and I picked the Packers. That too. Anyway, this being the final football post of the year though, it's time to look back at how things went from the prognosticating standpoint this year.

In the Yahoo league, I was among three people who had the correct pick for the big game:

But that fellow who'd been creeping up on me in recent weeks failed to submit a prediction and thus slipped into fourth. Sucks to be him. As for me, this marks the second straight year of finishing in second place in that league:

Over in the PoolHost league, I was alone in first for the final game of the year—thanks to the one other guy who submitted a pick having gone with Pittsburgh:

And according to the final online standings, I finished in second for the year:

But as I mentioned before, that league actually concluded with the regular season's end, so in actuality, I finished in third place this season. That, unfortunately, is a spot lower than the No. 2 spot I had ended up in both of the previous seasons.

Now as for how the "experts" did this postseason, after last week's picks for the final game, we ended up with a four-way tie for first:

1. (1) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 8-3
1. (1) Pro Football Weekly Editors: 8-3
1. (1) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 8-3
1. (1) Wunderdog: 8-3
5. (1) Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 7-4
5. (6) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 7-4
5. (6) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 7-4
8. (10) Eric Allen, ESPN: 6-5
8. (6) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 6-5
8. (10) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 6-5
8. (10) Mike Golic, ESPN: 6-5
8. (6) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 6-5
8. (10) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 6-5
8. (10) Yahoo Users: 6-5
8. (10) YOURS TRULY: 6-5
16. (16) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 5-6
17. (16) Merril Hoge, ESPN: 4-7

But don't cry Merrill Hoge. Because you've done pretty well these past three years—well, in the regular season.

Seeing as this is my big year-end wrap-up of not just this season but all three of the past seasons I've been blogging about NFL predictions, this year I'm presenting the grand totals accumulated over the past three regular seasons (I didn't record the Super Bowl picks of the others back in the 2008 season, so maybe next year I'll have the grand totals for the playoff picks of the experts and I in a separate category).

Here's how myself and the experts who've also picked for all three seasons rank in regular season prognosticating:

1. Merril Hoge, ESPN: 507-261 (.660)

2. Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 502-266 (.654)

3. YOURS TRULY: 497-271 (.647)

 4. Michael Silver, Yahoo: 495-272 (.645)

5. Jason Cole, Yahoo: 491-276 (.640)

6. Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 489-279 (.637)

7. Mike Golic, ESPN: 484-282 (.632)

8. Eric Allen, ESPN: 477-291 (.621)

9. Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 472-296 (.615)

And on a separate note, we've had a couple experts who missed a season or two (seasons I tracked in parentheses):

1. David Fleming, ESPN (2008): 165-91 (.671)

2. LEV, crazy colored glasses (2009): 171-85 (.668)

3. Ron Jaworski, ESPN (2009 & 2010): 316-163 (.660)

4. Charles Robinson, Yahoo (2008 & 2009): 331-180 (.648)

5. Les Carpenter, Yahoo (2010): 160-96 (.625)

6. Pete Prisco, CBS Sports (2009 & 2010): 313-199 (.611)

7. Adam Schefter, ESPN (2009 & 2010): 309-203 (.604)

And like I did last year, here are the final year-end Power Rankings which are based upon all three seasons worth of picks (with each team's year-end ranking from last season denoted in parentheses):

1. (2) DETROIT LIONS

• WIN/LOSE: -11/+395
• Actual Record: 8-40
• My predicted record: 9-39
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 26-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +8
• Points scored for me with losses: +446
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -51
• Points taken from me with losses: -19
  
• Plus/Minus: +384

2. (1) ST. LOUIS RAMS

• WIN/LOSE: +12/+341
• Actual Record: 10-38
• My predicted record: 4-44
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 26-6
• Points scored for me with wins: +15
• Points scored for me with losses: +406
• Points taken from me with wins: -65
• Points taken from me with losses: -3
• Plus/Minus: +353

3. (16) CAROLINA PANTHERS

• WIN/LOSE: +83/+175
• Actual Record: 22-26
• My predicted record: 19-29
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 23-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +120
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +229
• Points taken from me with wins: -54
• Points taken from me with losses: -37
  
• Plus/Minus: +258

4. (5) BALTIMORE RAVENS

• WIN/LOSE: +245/+12
• Actual Record: 32-16
• My predicted record: 34-16
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 20-12
• Points scored for me with wins: +276
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +38
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -26
• Points taken from me with losses: -31
• Plus/Minus: +257

5. (3) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

• WIN/LOSE: +245/-2
• Actual Record: 36-12
• My predicted record: 43-5
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 23-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +312
• Points scored for me with losses: +8
• Points taken from me with wins: -10
• Points taken from me with losses: -67
• Plus/Minus: +243

6. (4) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• WIN/LOSE: +42/+172
• Actual Record: 16-32
• My predicted record: 16-32
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 23-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +76
• Points scored for me with losses: +233
• Points taken from me with wins: -61
• Points taken from me with losses: -34
  
• Plus/Minus: +214

7. (9) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

• WIN/LOSE: +40/+157
• Actual Record: 16-32
• My predicted record: 15-33
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 22-10
• Points scored for me with wins: +74
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +234
• Points taken from me with wins: -77
• Points taken from me with losses: -34
  
• Plus/Minus: +197

8. (11) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

• WIN/LOSE: +206/-12
• Actual Record: 35-13
• My predicted record: 40-8
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 20-12
• Points scored for me with wins: +272
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +11
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -23
• Points taken from me with losses: -66
• Plus/Minus: +194

9. (9) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

• WIN/LOSE: +60/+131
• Actual Record: 21-37
• My predicted record: 17-31
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 21-11
• Points scored for me with wins: +95
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +184
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -53
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -35
  
• Plus/Minus: +191

10. (8) CLEVELAND BROWNS

• WIN/LOSE: -6/+194
• Actual Record: 14-34
• My predicted record: 11-37
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 21-11
• Points scored for me with wins: +19
• Points scored for me with losses: +278
• Points taken from me with wins: -84
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -25
• Plus/Minus: +188

11. (17) ATLANTA FALCONS

• WIN/LOSE: +171/+16
• Actual Record: 33-15
• My predicted record: 30-18
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 24-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +199
• Points scored for me with losses: +65
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -49
• Points taken from me with losses: -28
• Plus/Minus: +187

12. (13) MINNESOTA VIKINGS

• WIN/LOSE: +136/+43
• Actual Record: 28-20
• My predicted record: 25-23
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 24-8
• Points scored for me with wins: +179
• Points scored for me with losses: +100
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -57
• Points taken from me with losses: -43
• Plus/Minus: +179

13. (13) NEW YORK GIANTS

• WIN/LOSE: +171/+4
• Actual Record: 30-18
• My predicted record: 39-9
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 19-13
• Points scored for me with wins: +276
• Points scored for me with losses: +24
• Points taken from me with wins: -20
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -105
• Plus/Minus: +175

13. (12) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

• WIN/LOSE: +169/+6
• Actual Record: 32-16
• My predicted record: 32-16
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 20-12
• Points scored for me with wins: +254
• Points scored for me with losses: +35
• Points taken from me with wins: -29
• Points taken from me with losses: -85
  
• Plus/Minus: +175

15. (6) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

• WIN/LOSE: +44/+124
• Actual Record: 22-26
• My predicted record: 17-31
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 23-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +89
• Points scored for me with losses: +208
• Points taken from me with wins: -84
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -45
• Plus/Minus: +168

16. (7) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

• WIN/LOSE: +142/+22
• Actual Record: 30-18
• My predicted record: 33-15
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 23-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +222
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +41
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -19
• Points taken from me with losses: -80
• Plus/Minus: +164

17. (29) BUFFALO BILLS

• WIN/LOSE: +7/+144
• Actual Record: 17-31
• My predicted record: 12-36
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 22-10
• Points scored for me with wins: +45
• Points scored for me with losses: +229
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -85
• Points taken from me with losses: -38
• Plus/Minus: +151

18. (27) CINCINNATI BENGALS

• WIN/LOSE: +2/+147
• Actual Record: 18-29-1
• My predicted record: 15-33
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 19-13
• Points scored for me with wins: +71
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +240
• Points taken from me with wins: -93
• Points taken from me with losses: -69
• Plus/Minus: +149

19. (20) ARIZONA CARDINALS

• WIN/LOSE: +101/+39
• Actual Record: 24-24
• My predicted record: 19-29
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 19-13
• Points scored for me with wins: +133
• Points scored for me with losses: +119
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -80
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -32
• Plus/Minus: +140

20. (24) OAKLAND RAIDERS

• WIN/LOSE: +25/+106
• Actual Record: 18-30
• My predicted record: 6-42
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 23-9
• Points scored for me with wins: +29
• Points scored for me with losses: +249
• Points taken from me with wins: -143
• Points taken from me with losses: -4
  
• Plus/Minus: +131

21. (26) PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• WIN/LOSE: +142/-21
• Actual Record: 33-15
• My predicted record: 42-6
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 17-15
• Points scored for me with wins: +251
  
• Points scored for me with losses: 0
• Points taken from me with wins: -21
• Points taken from me with losses: -109
  
• Plus/Minus: +121

22. (18) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

• WIN/LOSE: +93/+15
• Actual Record: 20-17-1
• My predicted record: 29-19
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 21-11
• Points scored for me with wins: +176
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +50
• Points taken from me with wins: -35
• Points taken from me with losses: -83
  
• Plus/Minus: +108

23. (18) TENNESSEE TITANS

• WIN/LOSE: +75/+31
• Actual Record: 27-21
• My predicted record: 27-21
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 19-13
• Points scored for me with wins: +150
• Points scored for me with losses: +73
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -42
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -75
• Plus/Minus: +106

24. (28) GREEN BAY PACKERS

• WIN/LOSE: +91/+14
• Actual Record: 27-21
• My predicted record: 33-15
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 20-12
• Points scored for me with wins: +174
• Points scored for me with losses: +48
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -34
• Points taken from me with losses: -83
  
• Plus/Minus: +105

25. (22) CHICAGO BEARS

• WIN/LOSE: +92/+12
• Actual Record: 27-21
• My predicted record: 33-15
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 18-14
• Points scored for me with wins: +159
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +57
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -45
• Points taken from me with losses: -67
  
• Plus/Minus: +104

26. (25) HOUSTON TEXANS

• WIN/LOSE: +38/+53
• Actual Record: 23-25
• My predicted record: 24-24
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 20-12
• Points scored for me with wins: +96
• Points scored for me with losses: +104
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -51
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -58
• Plus/Minus: +91
  

27. (15) WASHINGTON REDSKINS

• WIN/LOSE: -10/+99
• Actual Record: 18-30
• My predicted record: 18-30
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 19-13
• Points scored for me with wins: +66
• Points scored for me with losses: +185
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -86
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -76
• Plus/Minus: +89

28. (30) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

• WIN/LOSE: -12/+77
• Actual Record: 20-28
• My predicted record: 17-31
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 17-15
• Points scored for me with wins: +37
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +159
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -82
• Points taken from me with losses: -49
• Plus/Minus: +65

29. (31) NEW YORK JETS

• WIN/LOSE: +79/-27
• Actual Record: 29-19
• My predicted record: 30-18
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 18-14
• Points scored for me with wins: +168
  
• Points scored for me with losses: +36
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -63
• Points taken from me with losses: -89
  
• Plus/Minus: +52

30. (21) DALLAS COWBOYS

• WIN/LOSE: +50/0
• Actual Record: 26-22
• My predicted record: 28-20
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 19-13
• Points scored for me with wins: +149
• Points scored for me with losses: +71
• Points taken from me with wins: -71
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -99
• Plus/Minus: +50

31. (22) MIAMI DOLPHINS

• WIN/LOSE: +47/+2
• Actual Record: 25-23
• My predicted record: 22-26
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 17-15
• Points scored for me with wins: +105
• Points scored for me with losses: +88
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -86
  
• Points taken from me with losses: -58
  
• Plus/Minus: +49

32. (32) DENVER BRONCOS

• WIN/LOSE: -55/+57
• Actual Record: 20-28
• My predicted record: 27-31
• My record at predicting their record (2009 & 2010): 17-15
• Points scored for me with wins: +62
• Points scored for me with losses: +120
  
• Points taken from me with wins: -63
• Points taken from me with losses: -117
  
• Plus/Minus: +2

Also, here's how I've done at picking in each point slot for the confidence pools over the past three seasons:

16-point games: 25-4
15-point games: 23-8
14-point games: 36-9
13-point games: 40-11
12-point games: 36-15
11-point games: 37-14
10-point games: 41-10
9-point games: 33-18
8-point games: 29-22
7-point games: 31-20
6-point games: 29-22
5-point games: 28-23
4-point games: 32-19
3-point games: 24-27
2-point games: 27-24
1-point games: 26-25

So football predictions still reign here on BMC. This past season did not see me offering thoughts on individual games during the weekly predictions, nor did I add one-liners or anything additional during the weekly Power Rankings. I'm trying not to read too much into that, preferring to instead believe I was just more pressed for time this football season. I'll certainly make it a goal to at the very least go back to some more text in the weekly predictions, but I'll stop short of promising anything about the Power Rankings.

Perhaps this is an idea better-suited for another individual post, but I have the belief that certain time-consuming annual projects can be a blast when done for the first time. However, I've also come to believe that things such as, say, annual bumper pool tournaments, have a five-year life span before the organizer decides it's just too much work.

At this point, I'm pretty exhausted with the football postings and surrounding responsibilities of not just two confidence pools, but two fantasy teams this year as well. So a break is much needed. But I don't want to see this usual posting spree just stop a couple years from now.

Seeing as this was only the third year of NFL predictions here and I fully anticipate still participating in the confidence pools—regardless of where I'm living—I'm trying to stay committed to keeping this thing going not just next year, but well beyond.