First, off laying out this post has been nothing short of a total pain in the ass. Here's hoping it was worth the trouble. Perhaps I would have been better off just using one of the many available GIFs of co-hosts Anne Hathaway and James Franco, but after seeing the collection here and developing this layout idea, I had to try and get it done. So while I'm sure there's inevitable going to be some sort of spacing issue to frustrate me after these picks are done being typed out, who really cares. I would've broken this segment into a couple paragraphs as well, but that just would've meant more complications and at this point, we just don't have time. The ceremony's only a few hours from now and, after all, I've still got contests to enter. And in the long run, it's going to be the results of those predictions that I'll be incorporating into future posts. Although maybe I'll learn something from this year's attempt to coincide with the nominees and never fucking do it again. Anyway, on to the picks—which in case you forgot how I score this thing after all is said and done, is based upon the NFL confidence pool system in which the top pick and most confident of the 24 categories is worth 24 points, second-most is worth 23, and so on all the way down to least confident being worth only one point (For the record, the scores based on this system and picks posted on BMC were Here's the picks I'm entering in any contest I get the chance to enter:
1. ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
—As I mentioned last year, as long as only one of the animated films also gets tossed the token Best Picture nomination, it's a dead giveaway as to the winner—and thus always bound to lead off as my most confident pick.
2. ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
—The leading man in the Best Picture front-runner certainly doesn't hurt, but neither does half his competition being recent former winners while the other half are nominees for the first time.
3. WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY): Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
—No other screenwriter has been as prominently heralded this awards season.
4. VISUAL EFFECTS: Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb, Inception
—The surest way to reward a Best Picture nominee absent in other major categories for one area it certainly excelled above the others in.
5. MAKEUP: Rick Baker and Dave Elsey, The Wolfman
—Baker's a reliable bet in this category, having won six times before, an The Wolfman seems the safer bet just by having more makeup.
6. SOUND EDITING: Richard King, Inception
—Another technical category win for the most action-packed of the category's nominees.
7. FILM EDITING: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
—The film masterfully jumps around in time, which should give it the edge over the more straight-forward telling of The King's Speech.
8. CINEMATOGRAPHY:
—The 10th time should be a charm for the legend, and he should benefit from this time around being on a Western.
9. BEST PICTURE: Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, The King's Speech
—Still somewhat remarkable to have seen what once seemed a foregone conclusion for The Social Network turn into nearly every guild (and thus, most Academy voting bodies) honoring the British biopic. Alas, The King's Speech will end up king indeed.
10. WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY): David Seidler, The King's Speech
—Seidler himself overcame a stuttering problem, and about the only obstacle here might be those who feel this is the best shot The Kids Are All Right has at an honor all night.
11. SOUND MIXING: Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick, Inception
—With four of the five nominees also being up for Best Picture, it's a tougher technical award for Inception to pick up than the previous two I listed. Still, I'll go with the film grabbing both sound awards to complement its visual one.
12. ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Christian Bale, The Fighter
—A late charge from Geoffrey Rush, and I wouldn't be totally stunned (or upset, really) if he pulled off the upset. But Bale's got the more physical transformation to go with the actual acting and his chances might benefit from The Fighter's Melissa Leo and Amy Adams canceling each other out in the Supporting Actress category.
13. DIRECTING:
—Tom Hooper has been gaining steam, but much like other recent years where a film won Best Picture while the director went to another movie (Crash in 2005, Chicago in 2002), Fincher feels like the more established name in the category.
14. MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG): Randy Newman; "We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
—A sort of toss-up, but it's hard to argue with Newman's work in a popular Pixar picture.
15. DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE): Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs, Inside Job
—It's no No End in Sight, and there's always room for surprises in this category. While I could see any of the five nominees winning here, Ferguson may benefit from having been bypassed a few years ago.
16. ART DIRECTION: Robert Stromberg (Production Design); Karen O'Hara (Set Decoration), Alice in Wonderland
—The King's Speech could ride a wave of support here, but Tim Burton's work usually fares well in this category. I suppose that makes Helena Bonham Carter happy either way.
17. COSTUME DESIGN:
—Now knowing my luck, this and Alice in Wonderland will end up flipping what I had both here and in Art Direction.
18. ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
—Melissa Leo's been pegged as the favorite, but Steinfeld's role in the Western was so big it had some thinking she might actually get nominated for the lead role. Alas, here she is in a category that's typically a sucker for young women and representing a film that garnered enough respect to surprisingly get its directors nominated too.
19. MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE):
—Could go a couple ways, but when in doubt, safe bet seems to be to go with the presumed winner of the big prize.
20. SHORT FILM (ANIMATED):
—Pixar-produced. 'Nuff said.
21. FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
—In a Better World has earned strong support and Javier Bardem's lead nomination speaks well for Biutiful's chances, but Incendies is withdrawing passionate praise from most every viewer.
22. ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
—Because I guess one upset pick isn't enough for me, this race comes down to likely being the one award that either Black Swan or The Kids Are All Right will get. And while Natalie Portman has certainly been the favorite to win this one all along, Bening's campaigned in recent weeks. While she won't have Hilary Swank to blame this time around, I'm suspecting that enough voters will throw her a vote just out of pity for not honoring her either of those two years not too long ago she lost out. It's pretty unlikely, but this category has become just as ripe for the upset as the supporting one for the women, so why not take another chance?
23. DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT): Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon, Strangers No More
—In a category I'm once again otherwise clueless about, Poster Girl sounds like a nice upset pick, but there's cute kids picture on the poster for Strangers No More. Works for me.
24. SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION):
—Same annual categorical dilemma as above, and same logic to make pick: The Confession is about a 9-year-old kid. One of these two has to hit.
UPDATE: Another all-time worst showing here on BMC, as both the 237 points and the 15 out of 24 categories were the least of any of the now four years I've posted predictions. Still, I did manage to keep seven of those misses relegated to the lowest eight spots and, moreover, I did win the confidence pool (out of 16 categories there) at the party I attended, so there's a saving grace.
Note to self when making these picks next year: Stop going with the upset in the acting categories, think twice about where you're ranking that cinematography category (I've had that category right only once out of four tries), and if you're going to try to do the GIF layout (check to see that this year's is still even working ...), then start with the films on the bottom of the columns and alternate left and right on up.
ANOTHER UPDATE: I guess I also managed to "outguess Ebert" ... for whatever that's worth:
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