2010-11 NBA Predictions: Three's Company

I guess it's only appropriate that here in my third year of predictions for the NBA on this blog, all the talk this off-season has focused on the likelihood of either another Lakers three-peat or the "Big Three" in Miami. I fully expect those two teams to dominate a majority of the news cycle throughout this year's basketball season and that Finals matchup to be hyped every chance that the Mother Ship gets. Take one look at all the variety in their staff's picks for which team will be champions this year (or just look at the West), and you'll see what I mean.

Of course, here on BMC, this could also be the third time I forecast a Lakers-Celtics Finals. First year I did it, Boston didn't end up making it that far. Last year, I had hoped that maybe picking Hell-A would jinx their chances, but instead I proved to be right about the outcome—although off by a game for how long the series would go.

So really, who am I crapping about nobody going against the status quo here? While there's murmurs about contraction in the league with too many teams, you could probably count the number of legitimate title contenders on one hand this season. And you might not even have to use your thumb, depending on how close you want to get to that Oklahoma City bandwagon that's been gathering a little steam.

Anyway, while this season doesn't seem as wide-open as, say, the National Football League felt when it kicked off a few months ago, then that almost certainly means I'll improve on my 16/30 correct spots from last year, right?

You're right, Kobe, I won't get overconfident.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic
Boston Celtics

New York Knicks

Philadelphia 76ers

New Jersey Nets

Toronto Raptors

No, I'm not sure that the two-for-one change with the two O'Neals (Shaquille and Jermaine—who aren't related) replacing the departed Rasheed Wallace really bolsters the defense that the Celtics pride themselves on, but if they can both stay healthy, they'll provide the presence Boston needs while waiting for Kendrick Perkins to get back to form—which could be a while too. The addition of Delonte West was another nice, although lower-profile move that, along with Marquis Daniels, should still give the Celtics the deepest bench in the division.

How the Atlantic plays out from there is a little less clear with a couple new coaches and more than a few new faces. I'm going with the Knicks to finish second here even though I don't think Amar'e Stoudemire alone is going to suddenly transform them into a contender. I do, however, suspect that New York will likely be a player in trade deadline dealings—more specifically, those Melo sweepstakes that should divert attention away from the Heat Index.

Both Doug Collins and Avery Johnson should help improve their new clubs this year, although if I'm still skeptical about the Knicks getting into the playoffs, then that doesn't bode any better for the Sixers or the Nets. Evan Turner should blossom pretty well under Collins in Philadelphia, but it's going to be a little harder fixing Elton Brand. Derrick Favors could be a really eye-opening rookie in Jersey, and while he, Troy Murphy, and Brook Lopez could make for a formidable big-man rotation, Devin Harris, Anthony Morrow, and Jodan Farmar all have weaknesses in their game despite their strengths and the bench is still a little weak.

Now without Chris Bosh, the Raptors are in for an even longer year than usual.

Central
Chicago Bulls

Milwaukee Bucks

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

 
Cleveland Cavaliers
 

It's a steep fall for the Cavs, who'd just repeated as division champs last year following four years of Detroit dominance. This year, the story appears to be a battle between Scott Skiles and his former employer, my hometown Bulls. The Bucks will be trying to do this without a superstar while Chicago made more splashier off-season moves than Milwaukee—including another new coach in former Boston defensive guru Tom Thibodeau.

The Bulls installed enough pieces to be called "Utah Jazz East" by bringing in Carlos Boozer, Ronnie Brewer, and Kyle Korver. That's not exactly the LeBron-like move Chicago had been hoping for, but with Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Derrick Rose still around—not to mention quality players in Taj Gibson, Kurt Thomas, C.J. Watson, and Keith Bogans—Thibodeau's new team should eventually live up to his defensive expectations this season.

The Bucks did more with less last year and nearly got out of the first round of the playoffs. Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden were the biggest additions made this off-season, and while there's more surrounding Andrew Bogut this year, is it fair to wonder how much they'll miss the consistent output they got off the bench from Luke Ridnour? Neither Keyon Dooling nor Earl Boykins seems quite as reliable, so then the question will be if Brandon Jennings has improved his shooting.

The rest of the division could be battling it out for the cellar spot in the conference. Detroit added Tracy McGrady, which should tell you about all you need to know—except that they're probably going to have to move either Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince, if not both. Indiana's going to be looking to make moves as well while Danny Granger's probably still going to be without reliable help—even with Darren Collison. And pity the poor Cavaliers, a team that could feasibly fall from first to worst within the conference.

Southeast
Miami Heat

Orlando Magic

Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte Bobcats

Washington Wizards

Here's a division that could possibly have half the Eastern Conference's playoff teams this year, not to mention the top two seeds. There's already been speculation about whether Miami can win 73 games (which I'm saying won't happen), but I think they'll still win the Southeast—even though Dwayne Wade pulling a hamstring in the preseason opener exemplified the reason I suspected the Heat probably won't be able to win 70 games.

The Magic didn't drop off much after being the No. 2 seed last year, and they could stay on Miami's heels throughout the year if Dwight Howard dominates on both ends and the team continues to blow others away in the number of threes they sink and times they get to the line.

The window's closed mighty fast for the Hawks in Atlanta, and I'm not so sure whatever offense new coach Larry Drew plans on running is going to help them finish any higher than third—or even get any further than the conference semifinals again. With the horror show the Bobcats will have at center this year, I was tempted to put Charlotte in last in this division. But I think Larry Brown will still get solid defense from his squad in what will likely be his final year.

The Wizards could have a Rookie of the Year in No. 1 pick John Wall, but the season may end up being more of an audition for those around him as the team moves forward than any realistic hope of getting into the playoffs this year.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder

Utah Jazz

Portland Trailblazers

Denver Nuggets

Minnesota Timberwolves

I could go on at considerable length about all the athleticism the Thunder have on their roster this year, but let's just say that they're loaded enough to take the division this year and probably even equipped enough to make some real noise in the playoffs.

Al Jefferson was brought in to Utah as a replacement for Boozer, and if he can prove to be the 20-10 guy they need, I see no reason Jerry Sloan can't get the Jazz back into the playoffs and presumably be bounced by Hell-A in the second round again. I'll give Utah the edge over the Trail Blazers, who unsurprisingly get to start the year without Greg Oden again. Portland was decimated by injuries last season, so you'd think the same problem couldn't drag them down again, could it?

As for Denver, the team's hopes ride on keeping Carmelo Anthony around. A solid start with George Karl's feelgood comeback story could remind him he's the franchise player, but I'd still be willing to bet that this team starts getting torn down by mid-season. Even if they do, the Nuggets still won't struggle as mightily as the Timberwolves. Minnesota could have the talent to surprise, but it's probably the maturity that will drag them down.

Southwest
Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs

Houston Rockets

New Orleans Hornets

Memphis Grizzlies

The Spurs have another guy with size who can score around the basket in Tiago Splitter, but I'll take the overall depth of the Mavericks' roster this season over the long haul. Now that Tim Duncan doesn't seem to require the double-team as much as he used to and George Hill has developed into a much better complement to Manu Ginobli for the pick-and-roll, I'm expecting Tony Parker's name to be bandied about in trade rumors this season. That could give San Antonio the roster move they need to put them over the top, but I'm still banking on Dallas to do what they almost always seem to do and that's quietly win more than 50 games. They're old, for sure, but they're big too. Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler will at least offer the Mavs some better options to counter opponents penetrating against either the 37-year-old Jason Kidd or 33-year-old Jason Terry. And if nothing else, Dirk Nowitzki will still cause matchup headaches for opposing head coaches by not only making open shots, but having gotten better at creating contact when he decides to drive.

Rick Adelman made the Houston Rockets into effective pests last season, but let's face it: that whole team's playoff chances once again rest on the health of Yao Ming. They've got decent depth at most every spot on the floor, but I'm still skeptical about Yao's chances—seeing as we don't know when he'll ever be able to put in more than 24 minutes a game.

I'm hugely skeptical about New Orleans for bringing in Monty Williams as coach before they even found a new general manager, but the team's foremost problem now seems to be finding a way to keep Chris Paul happy before his contract is up in 2012. Trevor Ariza was a good addition, but a whole lot more's going to be required from Emeka Okafor for the Hornets to get in to playoff contention.

Memphis is improving, but their weaknesses are still too obvious. They might have the strengths of an inside game, but opponents can plan around that and force them to take outside shots they're not so hot at. All of that's not to mention that the paint presence means a slower transition team, so I expect them to get killed on that end of defense too.

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Clippers

Sacramento Kings

Golden State Warriors

Yawn. Another stroll to a division title for the Lakers, in my mind—and at an even more leisurely and comfortable pace than last year, now with a majority of the national attention being on South Beach.

The Suns pushed the Lakers to six in the playoffs last year, but the loss of Stoudemire is going to hurt. There's still plenty of decent pieces to work with in Phoenix, but neither Hakim Warrick nor Robin Lopez is going to be as effective in that pick-and-roll with Steve Nash.

The Clippers will finally get to enjoy seeing what Blake Griffin can do, but with Vinny Del Negro now calling the shots there, that really means that the other Los Angeles basketball team is probably going to end up being run by Baron Davis. That could be a winning proposition on some nights, but I think it's bound to end up causing a major rift at some point.

Sacramento's still a little unsure about more than a few guys on their roster, and it seems like most of their season will be spent debating over minutes at point guard and center. The poor outside shooting and free throw shooting won't help either. The Kings should still be able to finish ahead of the Warriors, a team that brought in Keith Smart to improve their defense despite the fact that Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis in their backcourt won't really help meet that goal much. Golden State did get David Lee though, so there's something else to build around now that the ownership and uniforms have changed in addition to the coach.

Opening Round Playoffs
#1 Heat over #8 76ers in 4 games


#2 Magic over #7 Knicks in 5 games


#3 Celtics over #6 Bucks in 6 games


#4 Bulls over #5 Hawks in 7 games


#1 Lakers over #8 Suns in 5 games


#2 Thunder over #7 Rockets in 6 games


#3 Mavericks over #6 Trail Blazers in 6 games


#5 Spurs over #4 Jazz in 6 games

Conference Semifinals
#1 Heat over #4 Bulls in 5 games


#3 Celtics over #2 Magic in 7 games


#1 Lakers over #5 Spurs in 6 games


#3 Mavericks over #2 Thunder in 6 games

Conference Finals
#3 Celtics over #1 Heat in 6 games


#1 Lakers over #3 Mavericks in 7 games



NBA Finals

Boston Celtics over Los Angeles Lakers in 6 games