2011 NFL Predictions: This year's going to be different

I knew when I moved that the number of hours I typically dedicated to NFL posts during any given season was probably going to be reduced. And as this year's season get set to kick off on Thursday, I'm even more certain that I won't be bothering with a number of posts I was doing on a regular basis for the past couple years.

While I've already had my two fantasy football teams drafted, I've already made a roster adjustment to both without screencapping either original roster. That should be a sign that this will hopefully be the last you hear about either of those fantasy teams—unless, of course, I end up winning the whole thing this year.

Currently, that's the only football-related matter I'm enlisted to tend to. And while that's a bit concerning to have heard nothing from either of the confidence pools I've participated in the past few years, even if I do suddenly enroll in either one again this year, I'm already determined to axe the usual Power Rankings segment—even if I do end up privately maintaining that information, maybe saving the posting just for the sort of year-end annual report or something.

So like I said, things are going to change here. But, hey ... at least there's going to be a season.

Looking back at how last year went for me, I did exceedingly well at proving I know nothing about what will happen to any given team in the NFL. I don't even want to put it in numbers. We'll just say it was bad.

And move on to some guesswork that couldn't possibly be worse (right?) this year:

AFC East
New England Patriots

New York Jets

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Bills

Keeping in mind what I said after the Bruins won the Stanley Cup, and how I've already anticipated the baseball season ending, maybe I can jinx Boston by fearing even more success this year by saying right away that I don't have much reason to guess against the Patriots when they didn't lose any pieces of that league-leading offense—only, oh, adding this guy.

So about the only difference here this year is my buying into the Jets more and the Dolphins less. New York can compete for the playoffs, but the Pats will run away with the division.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals

I underestimated the Steelers way too much last year, and have responded by just picking the exact same standings from the way things actually turned out last season. Part of me wanted to pick Cleveland higher as an upset this year, but still finds Baltimore a playoff contender. Cincy would be a bad team for me this year if I do enter a confidence pool.

AFC South

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee Titans

 
Jacksonville Jaguars

 

Houston is the trendy pick this year, and count me among that bandwagon. Their third place finish last year should give them a more favorable schedule than either Indy or Jacksonville's. The ongoing concern with Peyton Manning does not bode well for the otherwise annually presumed front-running Colts. The Jags could cause some problems, but I think the Texans will get our front early this year and hang on long enough to secure the division and their first playoff berth.

[UPDATE: Switched Tennessee and Jacksonville at 6:54 p.m. on Sept. 6, you know ... after learning about the Garrard move. I've always kind of liked Jack Del Rio, so hopefully he'll just end up coaching on a different sideline next season.]

AFC West
San Diego Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos

After last season's slow start cost them a postseason appearance, I'm sticking with San Diego again this year. Kansas City took advantage and surprised many last year (although it was Oakland which went 6-0 in the division), but it just seems to be safer to assume that with the Bolts entering the year healthier and still loaded with weapons, San Diego finishes ahead of Chiefs and Raiders teams that will be hard-pressed to duplicate last year's success. The Broncos will get better at some point, but probably not this year.

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins

New York Giants

The Eagles are pretty widely considered to be among the favorites for the conference after the big-name acquisitions they made this off-season, and I suppose that maybe about the only thing that make my picks in this division slightly different is having a feeling the Giants are in for a mighty struggle this year. I also expect the Cowboys to play well under Jason Garrett with Tony Romo back and can only assume that some nostalgic appreciation of Rex Grossman is making put the Skins third.

NFC North
Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions

Chicago Bears

Minnesota Vikings

The Packers are still the class of the division and should be able to comfortably emerge from the division, although how things break down after that should be interesting. Detroit should finally be at the point of putting together a winning season if they're able to stay healthy this year, while the Bears are going to have the tough task of repeating as division champs with a more formidable schedule. The Vikings should still manage to be annoying, but they'll end up with more losses than any other team in the division at the end of the year

NFC South
New Orleans Saints

Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers
 

I liked the Falcons last year, but this time around, I'm thinking that the Saints will come back out on top of the South this year. It should be a good fight and both the Bucs and the Panthers might provide some excitement at points along the way, but in the end, I'm expecting New Orleans to contend for home-field throughout the NFC playoffs. The Falcons will grab a wild card.

NFC West
St. Louis Rams

Arizona Cardinals
 

San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks

Just as the Seahawks won this division with a 7-9 record last year, expect a similarly near-.500 squad to emerge from the West this year. The Rams might actually get that eighth win this year—and that could be enough. The Seahawks should be the biggest wreck of anybody, while the Niners and the Cards will have less limited success than St. Louis throughout the year.

Wild Card Playoffs
#3 Chargers over #6 Ravens

#5 Jets over #4 Texans

#3 Eagles over #6 Cowboys

#5 Falcons over #4 Rams

Divisional Playoffs
#1 Patriots over #5 Jets

#3 Chargers over #2 Steelers

#1 Saints over #5 Falcons

#2 Packers over #3 Eagles

Conference Championship
#1 Patriots over #3 Chargers

#1 Saints over #2 Packers

Super Bowl XLVI
Patriots over Saints