On a local level, I'm sure my lack of enthusiasm going into this season is somewhat justified by the hometown Bears losing all four of their preseason games. Oh sure, it was "just the preseason" and my uncle was quick to remind me about the Lions winning all four of those meaningless games the same year they lost all 16 of the games that did count. But I would've preferred some semblance of, say, an offensive line to make sure Jay Cutler is not ending up on his ass as often as he had to last year. So I'm not too terribly optimistic about my own favorite team's chances.
I'm also not too optimistic about the owners locking the players out next season, which will probably become a story we'll hear more about throughout this year—nor am I too terribly confident in general about how my prognosticating about the forthcoming NFL season in general is going to go.
Still, this blog's basically all about the predictions I make for the four major sports, and I'll give it another shot this year.
Just to reflect on how I did last season at this business, I correctly called five of the eight division winners and had 17 of the 32 teams' final places in the standings correct—including perfect placement of all four teams in the South for both the NFC and AFC. My Super Bowl pick was a total bust—as were a majority of my playoff predictions before the season began, only getting the fates of the Ravens, Chargers and Vikings correct.
So as we head into this year, I've heard much of the off-season hype surround the Cowboys and Jets, seen Peter King pick the Steelers in Sports Illustrated's preview, and am looking at Aaron Rodgers on the cover of Pro Football Weekly as that publication has picked the Packers—as did most everybody over at SI (or at least to represent the NFC).
All of that said, here's how I'm going to forecast my own predictions for the coming season:
AFC East
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
Hey, didn't I have that exact same finish last year? Well, yeah. And right now, about the only spot I'd say I'm sure of is the already banged-up Bills taking that cellar once again. Other than that, I've toyed with all three of the others winning this division.
I was initially tempted to pick the Dolphins as a surprise winner in this division as Chad Henne could be ready for a breakout season now that Brandon Marshall gives the team a No. 1 receiver its been lacking. The Dolphins still have enough options in their running game to ease whatever concerns they had with Marshall's iffy preseason performance, and Anthony Fasano being in a contract year should influence his performance at tight end. Even if the Fins start slow, they've got five of their final eight at home—with those final three home games being Cleveland, Buffalo and Detroit. So I have a feeling that even if they start poorly, Miami can finish strong and possibly sneak in as a wild card.
But for all my concerns about the Patriots and Dolphins on defense, how do I end up picking a New York Jets team with the league's top defense last season to finish third despite so many high-profile acquisitions this off-season? Well, mostly it has to do with the sophomore slump I'm betting the Jets get with Mark Sanchez. And the Jets being the subject of this season's "Hard Knocks" reminds me more of how that turned out for the 2002 and 2008 Dallas Cowboys featured on the same program rather than last year's Cincinnati Bengals squad. Let's not forget that the Jets caught a number of people by surprise last season and it was mildly charming to hear them talking tough and then backing it up when fans and opposing teams probably did take them too lightly. I'm guessing that all of their opponents won't be making that mistake this year—even if many fans are buying into the swagger.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
I mentioned a few times this off-season that the Browns could improve and make for an enticing version of one of those worst-to-first teams that's happened in at least one division 10 of the last 11 seasons. But looking at this division a little more closely, Cleveland's still got a ways to go—even if there is a "Big Ben" effect in Pittsburgh.
Joe Flacco seems poised to bring Baltimore a reputation based more on offense than the one they've had for defense since winning a Super Bowl one decade ago. With Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donté Stallworth (once that foot heals), Flacco has more weapons in his receiving corps—not to mention tight end Todd Heap, who was a favorite red zone partner last year. On top of that, Ray Rice has emerged as one of the best backs in the league with Willis McGahee also being capable of producing and Le'Ron McClain being a fullback capable of blocking for the both of them. Oh yeah, and despite some concerns about teh health of safeties, that defense still ain't all that bad either.
All of that said, the Bengals swept this division last year. And now for this season, they went and brought in Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones to go alongside Chad Ochocinco. That should give Carson Palmer some more options if, like me, you've got some doubts about Cedric Benson being able to duplicate the first 1,000-yard season of his career. But Cincy's still got concerns on defense in getting a strong pass rush, and as defending division champs, they get the tougher schedule this year with none of their final four road games (at the Colts, Jets, Steelers, and Ravens) being gimmes and having visits from the Saints and Chargers in the final five weeks.
Now that we know Ben Roethlisberger will only miss four games instead of six for his off-field transgressions, Pittsburgh won't have to sweat as much as they might have feared. Still, when he does does come back after their bye week, following a home game against Cleveland, the Steelers have three straight road games against the Dolphins, Saints, and Bengals—right before welcoming the Patriots to Heinz Field. That's just too iffy for me, so while Pittsburgh could indeed be capable of making a late-season charge when "Big Ben" comes back, I think it will be a case of too little, too late.
Joe Flacco seems poised to bring Baltimore a reputation based more on offense than the one they've had for defense since winning a Super Bowl one decade ago. With Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donté Stallworth (once that foot heals), Flacco has more weapons in his receiving corps—not to mention tight end Todd Heap, who was a favorite red zone partner last year. On top of that, Ray Rice has emerged as one of the best backs in the league with Willis McGahee also being capable of producing and Le'Ron McClain being a fullback capable of blocking for the both of them. Oh yeah, and despite some concerns about teh health of safeties, that defense still ain't all that bad either.
All of that said, the Bengals swept this division last year. And now for this season, they went and brought in Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones to go alongside Chad Ochocinco. That should give Carson Palmer some more options if, like me, you've got some doubts about Cedric Benson being able to duplicate the first 1,000-yard season of his career. But Cincy's still got concerns on defense in getting a strong pass rush, and as defending division champs, they get the tougher schedule this year with none of their final four road games (at the Colts, Jets, Steelers, and Ravens) being gimmes and having visits from the Saints and Chargers in the final five weeks.
Now that we know Ben Roethlisberger will only miss four games instead of six for his off-field transgressions, Pittsburgh won't have to sweat as much as they might have feared. Still, when he does does come back after their bye week, following a home game against Cleveland, the Steelers have three straight road games against the Dolphins, Saints, and Bengals—right before welcoming the Patriots to Heinz Field. That's just too iffy for me, so while Pittsburgh could indeed be capable of making a late-season charge when "Big Ben" comes back, I think it will be a case of too little, too late.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts 
Houston Texans 
Tennessee Titans 
Jacksonville Jaguars
Once again, this is the same finish I had forecast last season. And while I'm typically a big believer in the Super Bowl hangover experienced by the losing teams, most losing teams aren't led by Peyton Manning. The NFL's new rule moving officials out from behind the defensive line is designed to protect its umpires but has interfered with how Manning runs a no-huddle offense, and I'm guessing that even if the QB's clout doesn't force the league to change the new rule (it is already looking into adjusting it before Week One's games), the Colts will still adjust.
I'm not sure yet that I'll be forecasting a playoff berth for the Texans this year, but they'll surely remain competitive and keep knocking at Indy's door. Houston's capability in the air isn't matched by a consistent threat on the ground, and I don't know that their defense is capable of shutting many teams down off the line.
Tennessee sort of has the opposite problem on offense, with expectations being high for Chris Johnson but there still being doubts about how Vince Young will hold up. The Titans also have their share of concerns on defense—primarily with their linebackers. But Jeff Fisher's squad should be more competitive than Jack Del Rio's Jaguars, whose absence of a pass rush and holes in the secondary should almost certainly have the head coach enduring another year of wondering whether or not he'll be able to retain his job.
I'm not sure yet that I'll be forecasting a playoff berth for the Texans this year, but they'll surely remain competitive and keep knocking at Indy's door. Houston's capability in the air isn't matched by a consistent threat on the ground, and I don't know that their defense is capable of shutting many teams down off the line.
Tennessee sort of has the opposite problem on offense, with expectations being high for Chris Johnson but there still being doubts about how Vince Young will hold up. The Titans also have their share of concerns on defense—primarily with their linebackers. But Jeff Fisher's squad should be more competitive than Jack Del Rio's Jaguars, whose absence of a pass rush and holes in the secondary should almost certainly have the head coach enduring another year of wondering whether or not he'll be able to retain his job.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders 
Kansas City Chiefs 
Denver Broncos
And with this division, I've now forecast three of the same four AFC division-winners I had last season. But seriously, how can I pick against the Chargers in this lousy division? Their championship window is closing (if it hasn't already shut) and while they'll need to rely on a rotation along their defensive front again this season, the Bolts remain the class of the AFC West and have more talent than the rest of their division.
I think their biggest threat will actually come out of Oakland, with the Raiders more likely to boast a stronger defense than San Diego. However, I can't quite become a believer in Jason Campbell yet and I have doubts about both the running backs and receiving corps as well.
The Broncos might be fun to follow, seeing as we'll all be waiting to see Tim Tebow fail spectacularly, but I wouldn't want to have to be a fan of theirs with so many question marks about what they can do on offense. Denver can boast some strength with its defensive backs, but losing Elvis Dumervil was an absolute killer for their linebackers.
Still, things could be worse—like they probably will be for the Kansas City fan base. Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel might have been nice additions as coordinators, but they're weak at linebacker and could be hurting just as much along their defensive line.
I think their biggest threat will actually come out of Oakland, with the Raiders more likely to boast a stronger defense than San Diego. However, I can't quite become a believer in Jason Campbell yet and I have doubts about both the running backs and receiving corps as well.
The Broncos might be fun to follow, seeing as we'll all be waiting to see Tim Tebow fail spectacularly, but I wouldn't want to have to be a fan of theirs with so many question marks about what they can do on offense. Denver can boast some strength with its defensive backs, but losing Elvis Dumervil was an absolute killer for their linebackers.
Still, things could be worse—like they probably will be for the Kansas City fan base. Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel might have been nice additions as coordinators, but they're weak at linebacker and could be hurting just as much along their defensive line.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants 
Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles
As much as I want to believe Big D hosting the Super Bowl this year and having the inevitable pressure of hearing about that all season will hinder the Cowboys, they're simply too loaded to bet against here. Aside from concerns about the offensive line, Dallas still boasts their three-headed monster of a running game to help ease some of the expectations there will be for Miles Austin and Roy Williams. And even if that pair struggles, Jason Witten should remain a reliable target for Tony Romo. The defensive line and linebacking corps should help the Cowboys defense remain among the league's elite.
If I was tempted to pick any team to surprise, I suppose it would be the Giants. Offensively, Eli Manning has good targets among his receivers and both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw should give the G-Men an attack via the ground if they can remain healthy. New coordinator Perry Fewell should help energize a defense that's strong along the line, but have concerns at linebacker since the retirement of Antonio Pierce.
I guess I still view Donovan McNabb's move from Philly to D.C. as being a mistake on the Eagles' part, as Kevin Kolb will be playing behind a rather shaky offensive line despite having a solid group of receivers. LeSean McCoy should be strong enough to give Philadelphia an attack on the ground and the defense will be formidable, but the Eagles will have a tough schedule this year where I'm just guessing they end up on the losing end of too many close games. The Redskins, meanwhile, get a softer schedule and a proven coach in Mike Shanahan. Together with McNabb, I don't think the turnaround for Washington will be overwhelming enough to get into the playoffs, but their defense should be able to keep them in games even if the Skins almost certainly struggle almost everywhere on offense.
If I was tempted to pick any team to surprise, I suppose it would be the Giants. Offensively, Eli Manning has good targets among his receivers and both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw should give the G-Men an attack via the ground if they can remain healthy. New coordinator Perry Fewell should help energize a defense that's strong along the line, but have concerns at linebacker since the retirement of Antonio Pierce.
I guess I still view Donovan McNabb's move from Philly to D.C. as being a mistake on the Eagles' part, as Kevin Kolb will be playing behind a rather shaky offensive line despite having a solid group of receivers. LeSean McCoy should be strong enough to give Philadelphia an attack on the ground and the defense will be formidable, but the Eagles will have a tough schedule this year where I'm just guessing they end up on the losing end of too many close games. The Redskins, meanwhile, get a softer schedule and a proven coach in Mike Shanahan. Together with McNabb, I don't think the turnaround for Washington will be overwhelming enough to get into the playoffs, but their defense should be able to keep them in games even if the Skins almost certainly struggle almost everywhere on offense.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers 
Minnesota Vikings 
Chicago Bears
Detroit LionsThere's good reason Green Bay's a popular favorite so far among so many, as their biggest weakness appears to be special teams. Still, Aaron Rodgers and his all-time high 97.2 passer rating bode well will with the depth he has at wide receiver in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson—not to mention a variety of options at tight end headed by Jermichael Finley. They're solid enough on all parts of the defense, although you'd prefer a little more depth at safety.
The Vikings will be hard-pressed to repeat the performance that carried them to the NFC Championship game last season, especially being sans Sidney Rice for the first half of the season. They'll also need stronger play from their corners and safeties, but Minnesota should still give most every team they play a challenge.
Here in Chicago, the addition of Julius Peppers was a free agency move that was a most pleasant surprise, but again, that offensive line remains a gigantic concern—not to mention that when Jay Cutler is able to get off a pass, he's got some rather inexperienced receivers, however big their potential might be.
And Detroit could very well win twice as many games as they have in the past two years combined, but they've still got a ways to go on defense before I can buy into them finishing ahead of any of the other three teams in this division.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints 
Carolina Panthers 
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina should still be able to run with abandon, but the Panthers will be setting themselves up for an awful lot of decisions as Matt Moore, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Kalil and Thomas Davis will all be entering contract years while their defensive line adjusts to life without Julius Peppers. Even while Carolina won't be likely to compete with the Saints or Falcons, they should have no problem staying ahead of Tampa Bay's mess, where the Bucs can only hope their defense keeps them in games since their offense will struggle mightily as it continues along the learning curve.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals 
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis RamsAlmost certainly the worst division in the league this year. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Niners only win eight games and still win this division.
Just to say something nice, San Fancisco should boast a pretty formidable defense led by Patrick Willis, but their offense will probably be pretty sketchy. Still, Brian Westbrook and Frank Gore make for a helluva tandem in the backfield to allow the 49ers to rely on the run if Alex Smith continues to drive fans in San Fran crazy.
All of that said, the Buzzsaw that is the Arizona Cardinals will not continue the improvement they've made each year since Ken Wisenhunt took over as head coach. Without Kurt Warner and a variety of other questions on offense both on the offensive line and on defense, I'm guessing the Cardinals regress back to their losing ways this year.
Pete Carroll brings a fresh face to Seattle, but there's concerns just about everywhere you look on the Seahawks roster. The usual question with Matt Hasselbeck is when he'll get hurt and there's still no clear answer as to who the No. 1 running back or wide receiver will be. All of this is not to mention that there appears to be a variety of concerns on defense, namely creating a pass rush.
And the perennially lowly St. Louis Rams can try to get excited about the future with Sam Bradford starting at QB this season, but without a solid No. 1 or 2 receiver, their offense will likely be most effective when resorting to handing off to Steven Jackson. He won't have a stellar offensive line to run behind though, and nearly all facets of the defense will be equally dismal.
Wild Card Playoffs
#6 Dolphins over #3 Chargers
#5 Bengals over #4 Patriots
#6 Giants over #3 Cowboys
#5 Saints over #4 49ers
#6 Dolphins over #3 Chargers#5 Bengals over #4 Patriots#6 Giants over #3 Cowboys#5 Saints over #4 49ers
Divisional Playoffs
#6 Dolphins over #1 Colts
#2 Ravens over #5 Bengals
#6 Giants over #1 Packers
#2 Falcons over #5 Saints
#6 Dolphins over #1 Colts#2 Ravens over #5 Bengals#6 Giants over #1 Packers#2 Falcons over #5 Saints
Conference Championship
#2 Ravens over #6 Dolphins
#6 Giants over #2 Falcons
#2 Ravens over #6 Dolphins#6 Giants over #2 Falcons
Super Bowl XLV
Ravens over Giants
Ravens over Giants
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