Saturday, October 08, 2011

2011 League Championship Series Predictions: Off to a good start

The one series I picked last round to go the maximum five games instead ended up being the only one that didn't go five games. Don't get me wrong; so far, the baseball postseason is shaping up to be some pretty gut-wrenching October fare. The good kind of gut-wrenching, of course. Not every game has been of the must-watch variety, but certainly more than usual. Consequentially, I'm fairly optimistic about what's to come.

No matter what I'm about to pick for a World Series, Fox cannot be terribly pleased with any of the remaining markets. Three Central teams and a Dallas market that might as well be the Central, but that would only leave the American League West with three teams. No New York, no Boston, no Philly this year.

Again, considering the nature of what we've seen so far, it's not necessarily a bad thing. At this point with four teams left, I can't entirely dismiss the plausibility of any of the four World Series scenarios.

Before we get to my guesses (and let us not pretend they are anything more than such), here's how the first round of guesswork panned out for those who threw predictions out there:

1. Tim Brown, Yahoo!: 4-0 (3)
2. Christina Kahrl, ESPN: 3-1 (2)
2. Eric Karabell, ESPN: 3-1 (2)
2. Jayson Stark, ESPN: 3-1 (2)
5. Jim Caple, ESPN: 3-1 (1)
6. YOURS TRULY: 3-1 (0)
7. David Schoenfield, ESPN: 2-2 (2)
8. Jim Bowden, ESPN: 2-2 (1)
8. Steve Henson, Yahoo!: 2-2 (1)
10. Jerry Crasnick, ESPN: 2-2 (0)
10. Jeff Passan, Yahoo!: 2-2 (0)
12. Howard Bryant, ESPN: 1-3 (1)
13. Kevin Kaduk, Yahoo!: 1-3 (0)

And, as this usually goes, ESPN is already putting up different experts than it had last round, so we'll see if any of those names submit picks for the League Championship Series. Of course, with the final two Division Series wrapping up last night, even Yahoo's picks aren't ready for screencaps yet, but maybe that will make a great excuse for another post later this week.

Until then, here's what I assume will happen this round:

Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals in seven games

It's a tough call, and as much as I can envision the Cardinals going up 3-1 with a fifth game at the Busch, Milwaukee's still got home-field and has been absolutely dynamite there. Sure, Axford finally blew a save in the deciding game against Arizona, but otherwise he and K-Rod could make for an effective late game one-two punch. To me, Rodriguez could actually be the X-factor in this series. If he gets through his innings without issue, he isn't likely to be heralded when the team succeeds. But if he struggles against St. Louis, he could shoulder some blame for a Brewers elimination.

Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers in six games

I can see the positives and the negatives for the pitching on both sides, and maybe Jim Leyland's gamble of not using Justin Verlander will pay off in this series. But Texas' arms get the benefit of additional rest from wrapping up Tampa before anybody else had moved on, and the Rangers indeed seem to have taken their 9-0 thumping in the opener of that series with the Rays as a genuine call to action. Both the Rangers and the Tigers offer some scary bats in their lineups, but in the end, I think Ron Washington and Texas will prove better at manufacturing the runs that put the team back in the Fall Classic.

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