Oscar Nominee Picks: "A new twist," they say

So right after we had a year in which I nailed all 10 Best Picture nominees in only the second year of that category's expansion, the Academy decided to change the number once again. Maybe. It kinda depends, you see.

The number of nominees first got changed two years ago because The Dark Knight didn't get nominated because 10 nominees meant twice as many films could get the bump at the box office in the name of returning to the ceremony to the wider net of its early days. This year, in the name of suspense, the number of Best Picture nominees will not be known until the announcement of all nominees tomorrow morning. Could be 10. Or it might be five. Or anywhere in between.

It's actually an intriguing idea, but there's still some concern about which films really stand to benefit from the new process. For the prognosticators, it's something of a bitch. There's a lot of rankings floating around, with lines usually being drawn somewhere after the sixth or seventh film. Dave Karger of Entertainment Weekly was saying it might just go back to being five this year.

Oh, and as for the actual ceremony itself, Billy Crystal is now hosting after Eddie Murphy dropped out for production issues that seem to have happened so fucking long ago that I can't recall any significant details. Whatever, Crystal should ensure a bit smoother show than last year.

If the Academy is changing up their ways, then so too will I. Maybe both the Academy and I will immediately regret it and change again next year. But we'll begin with what the Caprpetbagger is referring to as "the sexiest man alive referendum":

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, Shame

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Clooney and Pitt seem automatic with Dujardin playing the possible spoiler on Oscar night. I was initially skeptical about Fassbender, but it sounds as though lukewarm reception for J. Edgar is making little Leo the one most likely to be bounced from this group. And there are, indeed, plenty of outsiders worth considering in this category. My initial gut was to think that Ryan Gosling has been popular enough this year, although he has two lead roles that could likely be splitting his own vote. Demián Bichir seems like the type of dismissed-as-overlooked sort of hype that makes him an attractive upset in a lesser year, but there's still Gary Oldman receiving raves for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy as well as strong turns from Michael Shannon and Woody Harrelson that just haven't commanded the attention of the five I'm going with.

BEST ACTRESS

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Rooney Mara is about the only possible spoiler here. Sure, would be tempted to think Kristen Wiig were a possibility if Bridesmaids were riding a Best Picture nomination, but ... wait, don't want to give away that part yet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

I'd be surprised if I'm right on four of these. The three sort of consensus locks would be Plummer, Branagh and Hill. After that, Brooks is certainly the safer of my two picks while Hammer's more of a risk. Brooks has won a majority of the awards handed out in this category so far, although his lack of a SAG nomination raised a number of eyebrows. He should be more of a shoo-in than Hill, now that I think about it. Still, there's a number of ways the fifth slot could go. Nick Nolte's turn in Warrior has become a very popular choice, although Max Von Sydow and Ben Kingsley seem like very Oscar-friendly choices. Still, the category has a habit of rewarding the quietly complementary roles to the bigger leads, and seeing as how that worked out pretty well for Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon in Clint Eastwood's Invictus, I'm thinking that Hammer's affecting turn in J. Edgar will ride in along with Leo's lead nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

There was some talk of the Academy pulling a devious little trick by placing Bejo in the lead category, but I'm not going to bet on it. She and the ladies from The Help should be the safest calls. Melissa McCarthy's turn in Bridesmaids seemingly has garnered too much attention to be ignored, and this category usually seems like on the safest places to bet on a comedic role like that (think Joan Cusack). Woodley is the riskiest selection of this bunch, with Janet McTeer most likely to frustrate me tomorrow morning. Carey Mulligan has a sneaky appeal and Judi Dench could ride a Marilyn wave, but Woodley would follow a historical trend that always likes to nominate one young'un every year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Reiser, 50/50

Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist

Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

A Separation would be announced last, right? Or is the "A" a formal part of the title? Anyway, screenplay nods always offer at least one surprise. This year, my outside-the-norm pick would be that Iranian film, as The Artist, Midnight and Bridesmaids all seem to be safe bets. 50/50 is also a bit of a gamble, likely to be competing with Beginners for votes, although this would mark the former's best shot at an award whereas the latter is almost assured an acting trophy right now. Also in contention could be Diablo Cody, although I suspect Young Adult did not likely win over enough audience members, or Tom McCarthy, whose Win Win indeed just sounds likes a spoiler.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants

Tate Taylor, The Help

John Logan, Hugo

Steven Zaillian, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Aaron Sorkin & Steven Zaillian, Moneyball

My main concern for error here would be Tinker Tailor squeezing in and presumably knocking out the other Zillain nominee, Red Dragon (Moneyball, with Sorkin, is a lock).

BEST DIRECTOR

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants 

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

The first four are Directors Guild nominees while Malick is an increasingly popular choice to be the Academy's annual wild card in this category. David Fincher, the other Guild nominee, could replace Allen just as easily as Malick. Tate Taylor could sneak in if the support behind The Help is even stronger than imagined, and one certainly wouldn't dare rule out Steven Spielberg, although you'll notice that this is the first time I'm mentioning War Horse. That probably doesn't bode well for my feelings bout the films chances in ...

BEST PICTURE

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

So, I originally began by limiting my choices to six, with those first four being the relative shoo-ins. Midnight in Paris also seems destined to fare well under the new voting system, and my sixth choice was to go with what is becoming the film that will seemingly be this new method's litmus test, Malick's Tree of Life. I'm guessing that the logic saying the film, however divisive, will have enough admirers to get the No. 1 votes necessary for a nomination proves correct. The slew of Guild honors for Dragon Tattoo has convinced me to also include that, and Moneyball really feels like the one I'm pushing this guess with. But with two projected acting nods and a screenplay nomination, even director Bennett Miller can't really be ruled out.

While I am guessing that I am more than likely over what the actual number will be, other possible additional or replacement nominees would have to include the aforementioned War Horse, which seemed destined for nomination but has lost momentum thanks in part to weak awards showings. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close would be a contender if 10 nominees were required, but under this system, it's far too Blind Side-ish to have the admirers necessary to get in. Tinker Tailor could have stronger support than I'm giving it credit for and other longshots include Bridesmaids and Ides of March.

Now my next question will be, "How do I score this?" If the Academy does end up only nominating five or six films, and they're all ones I had, does that constitute a perfect score? (Of course it doesn't, so hopefully there's eight tomorrow morning. I'm obviously betting on the over.)