Conference Championship Picks: All things seeming equal

Whereas I typically harbor some pretty severe doubts about the chances of at least one of the NFL's final four teams every year, this seems like the first time in quite a while that I feel like all four could realistically become champions. The strengths and weaknesses of each team have been well-documented, but all that remains to be seen is which teams will play more to their strengths than the others.

While my initially predicted Super Bowl matchup for this year became an impossibility as a result of last weekend's results, my predicted overall winner remains a possibility. And, on that weird-but-irrelevant note, my Super Bowl prediction from last year is now a possibility for this year. As for the Niners, well ... they feel very much like the sort of team that could make me pay for continually underestimating me. Their success this season probably bolsters the idea that not being involved in a confidence pool this season might have been a good idea, as San Francisco probably would have ranked pretty low on the Power Rankings (OK, actually, Cincinnati would probably have fucked with me even more).

Anyway, I suppose that I'm looking forward to today's games more than usual because it seems that the four possible Super Bowl matchups two weeks from now are all more realistic possibilities to me than usually are this time of year. Even from a fan's "rooting interest" perspective, I'm not sure which teams I'm really "pulling for" at this point. If anything, I have a feeling that I'll simply be rooting for some close contests ... seeing as what I recognize now is that football season is coming to a close.

In the one year I have not been screencapping the picks of these experts as they've been made, of course I have a discrepancy in records. So Chris Mortensen, whom I had at 1-3 last round, apparently went 2-2 in the first round. Um ... my bad? Whatever. He's tied for the best record thus far, although I heard Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun-Times on the radio saying he's 7-1 thus far. Here's how the field I'm tracking stands:

1. (5) Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 6-2 (4-4)
1. (13 5) Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 6-2 (4-0) 
1. (1) YOURS TRULY: 6-2 (3-1) 

4. (5) Les Carpenter, Yahoo: 5-3 (3-1)

4. (5) Mike Freeman, CBS Sports: 5-3 (3-1)

4. (1) Clark Judge, CBS Sports: 5-3 (2-2)

4. (1) Dave Richard, CBS Sports: 5-3 (2-2)

4. (5) Adam Schefter, ESPN: 5-3 (3-1)
4. (1) Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)

4. (13) Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 5-3 (4-0)

11. (13) Will Brinson, CBS Sports: 4-4 (3-1)

11. (13) Jason Cole, Yahoo: 4-4 (3-1)
11. (5) Mike Golic, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)

11. (5) Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)

11. (5) Michael Silver, Yahoo: 4-4 (2-2)

11. (13) Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 4-4 (3-1)
17. (5) Eric Allen, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)

Despite my regret that I did not post screencaps in the last two rounds, I won't suddenly add them now. If you're interested you can find the experts picks for this round here, here and here. Despite my initial suggestion that any of the four Super Bowl scenarios seem like a real possibility, it seems like most everyone's going with the same thing this weekend. Would I dare disagree?:

New England Patriots (14-3) over Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

Whereas this Bears fan was experiencing a little bit of frustration about the success the Houston Texans were enjoying despite injuries to both their first- and second-string quarterbacks (among other key injuries), the Baltimore Ravens ongoing success in clear appreciation of the fact that the championship window is closing on many of the members of their defense can hopefully serve as some sort of inspiration for a Chicago team that is going to be very much in a similar position next year. Still, for right now, as much as I want to buy in to the idea that these Ravens will continue to thrive one more time and overcome the near-universally favored Pats, I just cannot go against New England. Had Baltimore not come into Foxboro and stunned many of the same Patriots just two years ago, I would be more tempted to believe that the Ravens could flourish despite being underestimated. In the end, I'm guessing that a few key turnovers by the Baltimore offense will make the difference.

New York Giants (10-8) over San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

Despite my acknowledgement that I'm guilty of underestimating the Niners, their amazing victory over the Saints in what is almost certain to be the best game of these playoffs is probably going to be the peak moment of their memorable campaign. The New York defense is a significant step up from the otherwise porous New Orleans defense that San Fran faced last weekend. While the Giants might not have been deemed as offensively "explosive" as the Saints, that does not mean Eli Manning, Victor Cruz or any of the many other weapons New York has should be dismissed. Furthermore, how can you not call into question that having a plus-four turnover margin against New Orleans only translated to a four-point win for the 49ers? I'd go with luck, and I'm guessing it runs out against the G-Men.