Sunday, May 05, 2013

Round Two NBA Playoffs Predictions: Here's to your health

I think "painful" is a fair description of this NBA season based on the number of players who have missed time and will be out for the remainder of this year's playoffs. The Bulls, obviously, were without Derrick Rose's services all year, the Lakers that were expected to be a juggernaut this season instead lost the team's star Kobe Bryant late in the regular season, and now Oklahoma City is without Russell Westbrook. Even that omits Boston being without Rajon Rondo, Indiana missing Danny Granger and Denver losing Danilo Gallinari. Is there anybody I forgot?

Of course there is. Injuries are a part of sports, but they've taken on a seemingly more significant role in this NBA season. I have spent the past month arguing with my uncle about whether it was right for Gregg Popovich to send three stars home before a regular season game with the Heat. My logic was that he was entitled to do so because he was doing what he felt would help his team win an NBA Championship. And now with the rest of the league being so beat up, his decision could take on a greater significance if the Spurs do win it all—or hell, even if they make it to the Finals.

Right now, let us all just hope that there will be some stars remaining by the time we do get to the NBA Finals, whomever it is that proves healthy enough to make it there.

Yeah, so I didn't get around to the screencapping and recording other picks on other website, but for the record, I was 6-2 last round with four series predicted in the exact number of games. That's about par for the course with the overall record for my NBA picks (although getting four series on the nose might match a high or set a new one for me), so let us see if I can maintain the four for four accuracy rate I had in this round last year:

Miami Heat over Chicago Bulls in five games

I am typing this before a winner has emerged from the Game 7 between New Jersey Brooklyn and Chicago, but the Heat are going to dispose of either the Nets or the Bulls rather quickly. Chicago is too beat up and Brooklyn is too bad to have taken advantage of that in the last round, neither of which stands much of a chance against the defending world champions. Nobody really expected Miami to be really contested until the Conference Finals at the soonest, and that appears like it will still be the case. Even without Dwayne Wade's contributions, the Heat should be able to take care of business rather quickly in this round. Maybe Miami will have one off-night where they drop a game, but more than likely, the champs are simply too good and can seemingly go on lengthy scoring runs at any given point that effectively puts games away. LATE ADDITION: OK, I think the Bulls will steal one game at home to avoid being swept.

San Antonio Spurs over Golden State Warriors in five games

The Warriors thrived on the lack of respect they were shown in the last round against Denver, and I'm sure they'll make similar claims this round too. However, Golden State's abhorrent manner of closing out Game 6 in the last round showed that the young team is still prone to many rookie errors. Against a veteran team like San Antonio, such mistakes are going to be capitalized on every time. I'm guessing there will be the one game where Steph Curry goes off (probably one of the contests in Oakland) and the Warriors steal one, but the Spurs will otherwise pick their inexperienced opponents apart.

Indiana Pacers over New York Knicks in six games

The winner here represents the last great hope for an Eastern Conference team other than Miami to get to the Finals. I'm giving Indiana the edge in size up front as well as overall skill. Oh, and youth too: Indiana has only one player older than the age of 27 (David West), while the Knicks only have one player younger than 27 (Iman Shumpert). Yes, I realize I just picked the Spurs based on their veteran status, but this series is a different story because the age doesn't necessarily translate to the speed of the games these teams play. Whereas Indiana's youthful group plays as though they were the older club, New York's club prefers to play at a quicker pace. In the end, I think it's going to come down to 'Melo and whether he can carry the Knicks on to the next round. If the Pacers can put more pressure on Anthony and limit the involvement of his teammates, then Indiana will move on. However, if Carmelo keeps things moving and gets the rest of the club involved, then New York will probably return to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000—where they coincidentally lost to the Pacers one year after beating them in the Conference Finals.

Memphis Grizzlies over Oklahoma City Thunder in six games

Poor Kevin Durant. While many people had a Thunder-Heat rematch for this year's Finals, and the top seeds in the respective conferences made that seem likely, there is no getting around how damaging the loss of Russell Westbrook is. If Memphis was simply another one-dimensional opponent, then maybe OKC would stand a chance of surviving for at least one more round, but instead the Grizzlies boast a number of contributors that should give the Thunder fits. If it's not Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol up front, then there's Mike Conley and Tony Allen in the backcourt with Tayshaun Prince being capable of being a factor everywhere in between. Oklahoma City cannot count on Derek Fisher and Reggie Jackson to make up for the loss of the team's second-best player, and the absence is going to be the reason this Thunder season ends a lot sooner than most people expected.

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