This is now my fifth year of making NFL predictions, and my track record really isn't that great. Ever since the first year of making picks in 2009, the only season I had more than half the teams in their correct final spots, I've had a fairly lousy track record at doing this. Nonetheless, making predictions is more or less what this blog has become entirely dedicated to and I'm anxious to see how this NFL season plays out.
I'll attempt to take a few risks this year so this doesn't look like another version of the average of everybody else's predicted finishes, but ultimately I think that it's probably smarter to go with the consensus in the AFC and relegate the surprises to the NFC. That almost certainly means the opposite was true.
I stopped doing the rearranging post-copy-and-paste that always seemed to cause layout issues, so hopefully this year's picks look a lot better than recent years past:
I'll attempt to take a few risks this year so this doesn't look like another version of the average of everybody else's predicted finishes, but ultimately I think that it's probably smarter to go with the consensus in the AFC and relegate the surprises to the NFC. That almost certainly means the opposite was true.
I stopped doing the rearranging post-copy-and-paste that always seemed to cause layout issues, so hopefully this year's picks look a lot better than recent years past:
AFC East
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
I have picked the Pats to win this division each of the previous four years, and I've been right every time. As much as I'd like to kick off these picks with a surprise here, there's no sense in doing that. New England's still the class of the division and could very easily win it with a 10-6 record if they underperform. The rest of the division is a little bit trickier. If anybody's going to contend, I suppose it would be the Dolphins. Still, I think Miami's bound to have some struggles with its second-year QB, and as a result, I expect them to finish second. The Bills and the Jets both have their issues, but I'm assuming that Rex Ryan is already applying for other jobs and New York will ultimately finish worse than Buffalo.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
The Bengals are a tremendously deep squad on defense that are popular favorites to win this division. The Ravens could still contend, but the loss of Anquan Boldin will prove tougher to overcome than the many other losses on defense—including Ray Lewis and Ed Reed—although all the departures should have some effect. Cincy has a tendency to disappoint when I expect this much from them and excel when I don't, so I'm admittedly nervous that Baltimore will use the doubts many people have about the defending champs as motivation all season long. Still, I think Cincinnati's defense is impressive and Andy Dalton doesn't get enough credit for how good he can be, and I think the Bengals live up to the hype and actually claim the best record in the conference this year. I never seem to gauge the Steelers correctly, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if they came out and walked away with the North after I pick them to finish third, but they seem to certainly be regressing after many successful campaigns. The Browns occupying the cellar, however, seems like probably the safest bet of any in this division.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a very tough call because this division will be a veritable two-horse race all season long. The Texans were my Super Bowl pick last year, and it would figure if they came out and lived up to my expectations a year late. Houston's certainly still got an abundance of talent, but I just think the Colts capitalize on the weaker schedule by comparison and eke out a division title by a single game—maybe even a tiebreaker. I've gotten the winner of this division right each of the previous four years, but this year feels like the toughest call of any of the five I've made picks. From there, Tennessee should finish a few games ahead of a woeful Jaguars club, but neither seem likely to be much of a factor for doing any better than third in the South.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Much like the South, this division seems to be two clear favorites at the top and then two clubs probably competing to enter the Jadeveon Clowney sweepstakes. The Broncos are deserving favorites, but the Chiefs could indeed win double-digit games and end up challenging in the West. Kansas City probably has the more favorable schedule, but the Week 13 meeting between the Broncos and the Chiefs could play a big part in deciding a winner too. Ultimately, the trio of receivers Peyton Manning has to work with this year makes me stick with Denver—despite some serious concerns about the Bronco defense—taking the division, but I expect K.C. to still make the playoffs and keep the division a race for most of the year. As for San Diego and Oakland, I think the Chargers are slightly less of a mess than the Raiders. Oakland will probably secure the top pick in next year's draft.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles
Now we get to the division where I have never once correctly predicted the winner. This year doesn't make it any easier, as the Giants are considered favorites in many circles but have a fairly tough schedule in the second half of the year. Ultimately, I think whichever team wins this division will likely do so with an underwhelming 9-7 record, possibly winning a tiebreaker with at least one other team in the East. I'm going to go ahead and pick the Cowboys because I haven't tried that yet and I've just got too many reservations about the other three teams (OK, I've got reservations about all of them). New York could certainly emerge here and I expect the G-Men to finish with a record similar to whatever Dallas ends up at, but it feels like the Cowboys are due to bounce back after a series of disappointing finishes. As defending North winners, the Redskins probably shouldn't be ruled out—especially with Brian Orakpo returning—but there remain concerns about the health of RG3 and Washington finishes the year with a pretty tough six-game stretch where I think they'll be lucky to even break even. I'm even hesitant to express in confidence in the Eagles finishing at the bottom of this division, but there remains questions about Michael Vick and I'm skeptical about how Chip Kelly transitions to the NFL now that it has been made clear that officials are going to slow down the hurry-up offense he employed at Oregon. So with me fully admitting that I have no idea here, I'll go ahead and guess Dallas finally returns to the playoffs and everybody else barely misses out.
NFC North
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
If you're not counting Dallas a surprise pick, then this one should certainly go against the grain. I'm not too optimistic about how the Packers handle the loss of Bryan Bulaga, and I'm actually wondering how Aaron Rodgers will hold up after being sacked more than 50 times last year. Point blank, I don't think he's going to play all 16 games this year—whether it's just a week off following a concussion or something more serious, I get the sense that he's going to have some type of health issue at some point. So why the Lions? Part of the reason I like them is the addition of Reggie Bush, which should not only open up the team's running game, but could also help provide short pass options that throw off opposing defenses and possibly make Calvin Johnson an even bigger threat than the 2,000+ yard receiver already is. Furthermore, I expect Detroit to bounce back from the number of turnovers it committed last season—not necessarily becoming one of the league leaders in forcing turnovers, but just committing significantly less mistakes and, thus, not pissing away so many games. I severely underestimated the Vikings last season, and apparently seem willing to make the same mistake twice. I think the Bears will win only a few more games than Minnesota, but both teams will probably have their share of frustration.
NFC South
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Alright, now this is an upset, no? This is actually a division I have had some success with in picking the previous four years, guessing the winner correctly each time and getting at least half the teams in their correct final spots every year. Of course, it's always been New Orleans or Atlanta that I had winning the South. Those two teams are again the favorites this year. However, I want to take a risk and pick the Panthers to be perhaps the year's biggest surprise. They've certainly got talent on their front seven, although the secondary's a legitimate concern. Then again, that's the story in Atlanta and New Orleans too. The Saints will be adjusting to Rob Ryan's new 3-4 defense and should be improved (hard to imagine it being worse than last year, after all), and the Falcons are starting three rookies in their secondary while dealing with the loss of John Abraham. Yes, Steven Jackson will provide the Atlanta offense with a terrific jolt on an offense that didn't need that much help, but ultimately, I'm expecting Cam Newton to have a really standout year that carries Carolina to the division title in a very close race. In the end, it will be the level of talent on the Panthers defense that's the story. Tampa Bay shouldn't be ruled out completely, but for now, they're just too young and possibly too immature to put together a winning record.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams
Arizona Cardinals
And oh, how I really would love to round out my NFC picks by going with one final upset and taking the Rams here. Alas, I can't ignore that this is arguably the best division in all of football, possibly having three teams that win 10+ games. Ultimately, I think Seattle squeaks out a division title here over San Francisco. Super Bowl hangover, I suppose, but the Niners should still be competing for the West title all year long. San Fran is a deserving favorite this year, as the team is loaded on both sides of the ball. In fact, both the Seahawks and the 49ers have been popular Super Bowl picks in the predictions I have seen thus far, and that makes since both clubs have overwhelming amounts of talent. St. Louis gave everybody more problems than anybody expected last year, and I expect them to continue to improve. As for Arizona? Well, I don't know if they'll have a chance to win the Clowney sweepstakes, but they could very well compete. The Cards finishing last here is probably the one aspect of the pick I feel most confident in.
Wild Card Playoffs
#6 Texans over #3 Patriots
#4 Broncos over #5 Chiefs
#6 49ers over #3 Panthers
#5 Packers over #4 Cowboys
Divisional Playoffs
#1 Bengals over #6 Texans
#4 Broncos over #2 Colts
#1 Lions over #6 49ers
#2 Seahawks over #5 Packers
Conference Championships
#4 Broncos over #1 Bengals
#1 Lions over #2 Seahawks
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