2009 NFL Predictions

We are now only hours away from kickoff for the 2009 NFL season, which means I had best crank these predictions out. Let's get to it:

AFC East
New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins

New York Jets

Buffalo Bills


I have yet to see a single person NOT pick the Patriots win this division. They're the clear favorites, but what order the other three fall into is nowhere near as unanimous.

Even if everybody else is prepared for "Wildcat" football, I don't see why Bill Parcells' latest reclamation project in Miami won't live up to last year's promise.

The Jets' defense ain't bad but they'll be depending an awful lot on a good running game since they're starting a rookie QB and only have one legitimitely experienced wide receiver.

And while Buffalo's got T.O., they still leave something to be desired on both their offensive and defensive lines. Firing their offensive coordinator certainly doesn't bode well either.

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns


Starting from the bottom, where Cleveland's bringing in a new coach to try and pick between two QBs while working with a defense replete with holes.

The Bengals have the potential to be a sleeper team this year, but with Ray Lewis staying Baltimore to lead an always formidable defense, I like the Ravens to be one notch better and return to the playoffs as a Wild Card despite the hype surrounding a possible sophomore slump for Joe Flacco.

The defending champion Steelers lost only two of last year's starters—and there's the extreme likelihood that Lawrence Timmons and William Gay might just be better than the guys they're replacing anyway.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts

Houston Texans

Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars


This is the toughest division to call in the AFC, as the Colts don't have many weaknesses on paper. But it's an entirely revamped coaching staff, which is always suspect. Still, Peyton Manning's capable of getting Indy back to the top of the division.

The Titans' schedule isn't a whole helluva lot of fun for Tennessee fans and the loss of Albert Haynesworth is going to be killer—whether they want to admit it or not.

Gary Kubiak's determined to finally get Houston a winning season, and if Matt Schaub can stay healthy, they'll have the offensive weapons to do it. You'd like a little more help for Mario Williams on the defensive line, but I'm thinking the Texans are finally due to make their first playoff appearance in franchise history.

And Jack Del Rio may be entering his final season in Jacksonville as the Jags are going to be relying entirely too much on Maurice Jones-Drew due to a severely depleted receiving corps. New GM Gene Smith will begin using the term "rebuilding" throughout the season.

AFC West
San Diego Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders


A horrendous division, led by a San Diego team that seems to pride itself on starting slow. But with Shawne Merriman healthy once again and LaDanian Tomlinson having something to prove, the Chargers know their championship window won't be open much longer.

The remaining three teams should offer some laughs for the rest of the league. The Chiefs are basically an entirely different team, but their new leaders come from the right backgrounds for a turnaround: New GM Scott Pioli brought Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel with him from his Patriots past, while new head coach Todd Haley can reference Parcells as a mentor.

The turbulent off-season for the Broncos certainly wasn't very encouraging, but Josh McDaniels also has a history with the Patriots, which certainly is.

And the lowly Raiders will probably still find some way to get attention. It just won't be by winning football games.

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles

New York Giants

Dallas Cowboys

Washington Redskins


It's hard to argue against the roster the Giants are fielding this year, but their receiving corps doesn't have the pizazz it did with Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. Still, they're stacked on both the offensive and defensive lines. But beyond the big addition of Michael Vick to the Eagles, Donovan McNabb has all sorts of options on offense this year. Their situation with linebackers doesn't fill me with confidence, but a strong defensive line and solid backs should still make them a force all the same.

And besides the two heavyweights, there's no reason to completely discount the Cowboys either. DeMarcus Ware is still going to be an animal on the defensive side of the ball, but there's an offensive line that's shaky and who's the new No. 1 receiver going to be now that Terrell Owen's antics have left Big D?

Oh, and Jason Campbell gets to have another go with the Redskins after they spent most of the offseason trying to replace him. No pressure, kid.

NFC North
Minnesota Vikings

Chicago Bears

Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions


I do believe that Brett Favre is my leading candidate for Douchebag of the Year (or, as Minnesota fan Drew referred to him, "douchetender"). While I'll pray like hell that his little return conveniently following the conclusion of training camp totally backfires, I just can't pick against the Vikes. Adrian Peterson seems destined for an MVP season and their defensive line is frightening.

Sure, I'd love to pick my Bears, what with our first honest-to-God, real genuine quarterback in ... fuck, ever! It's going to make Matt Forte into something just short of a legend this season, but that supposedly legendary Bears defense was exposed last year as a total farce. This year isn't shaping up to be all that hot either if the team doesn't generate a more consistent pass rush and the corners don't perform better. But their linebacking corps could now be considered among the elite squads in the league and I'm convinced that Brian Urlacher is going to perform better now that he's no longer the team's top-selling jersey.

The Packers have become something of a trendy pick late in the preseason, but you have to wonder how smoothly the transition to a 3-4 defense will go. The talent's certainly there on that side of the ball, but there will be a little added pressure from a pretty piss-poor special teams unit that won't be doing them any favors. And while many are saying it's the NFC East that could field three playoff teams, I wouldn't rule out the two Wild Cards actually emerging from the North.

Oh, and then there's Detroit, which is in line to tie the the record for the third-worst NFL losing streak if they drop their home opener. A loss in Week Two will tie them for second. I picked them to win five times last year, and I'm not foreseeing myself matching that total.

NFC South
New Orleans Saints

Atlanta Falcons

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Hub Arkush:

Now here are the facts. Dating back to 1996, at least five of the prior year's playoff teams have failed to return to the playoffs, and in 2008 seven '07 playoff teams failed to repeat. Over nine of the last 10 seasons, at least one team that finished last in its division the year before has bounced back to win a title, and in six of the last 10 seasons at least two clubs have turned the trick.

When you get down to the bottom of this post, you'll notice I've only got four new teams in the playoffs this year (only one in the AFC), and my one worst-to-first is in the NFC South. It strikes me as the most logical choice of the eight cellar-dwellers from 2008. Their defense isn't great, but it's certainly improved. And Drew Brees was only 15 yards short of the single-season passing record last year.

And if we're going to talk about who's likely to suffer a sophomore slump, then Matt Ryan strikes me as far more likely than Joe Flacco. Ryan tossed seven interceptions in his final five games and immediately got bounced from the playoffs while Flacco won two postseason games for Baltimore. Oh, and as long as I'm relying on history in this division, then the Falcons' seven-win improvement should probably lead to about four less this season with a defense that isn't going to scare too many teams.

The Panthers have never made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and their defense took a huge blow when Maake Kemoeatu tore his ACL on the very first practice of training camp. Seems like an omen for their season. Still, they should finish ahead of a Buccaneers squad that's clearly in the first year of revamping.

NFC West
Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers

St. Louis Rams


I'm still somewhat amazed at how many are picking the Cardinals here, considering that they would be more likely than any team in recent memory to be suffering the historically-supported hangover that dogs most every Super Bowl runner-up. That was quite the enchanted little run they had in the playoffs last year, but I'm skeptical of how well they'll be able to run the ball and how healthy Kurt Warner stays at 38 years of age.

Injuries decimated Seattle last year, but now they've got Matt Hasselbeck back along with the acquisition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh for a new target. And rookie linebacker Aaron Curry along with MLB Lofa Tatupu and backup D.D. Lewis have caused a lot of writers to use the word "versatile" when writing about that area of the Seahawks defense. Oh, and you could do a lot worse for new head coaches than Jim Mora.

I know I'm in for a long season of hearing people in Chicago say what a great coach Mike Singletary is, but even George Halas would have problems with the offensive and defensive lines they have in San Francisco. The shaky quarterback situation isn't particularly helpful either.

And while I'm inclined to believe that the addition of No. 2 pick Jason Smith will make a remarkable difference for St. Louis' offensive line, the truth is that there's just still too many problems to be alleviated for Steve Spagnuolo in one year.

Wild Card Playoffs
Steelers over Texans

Ravens over Colts

Saints over Giants

Bears over Seahawks


Divisional Playoffs
Patriots over Ravens

Steelers over Chargers

Vikings over Bears

Eagles over Saints


Conference Championship
Patriots over Steelers

Eagles over Vikings


Super Bowl XLIV
Patriots over Eagles