Last season's picks were a fine reminder that there may be no more difficult sport to predict a final outcome for than Major League Baseball. Again, out of 63 experts from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Yahoo, and Fox last year, NOT ONE had Boston or St. Louis in the World Series. And while I specifically noted that I was going against the conventional wisdom at the time that had either the Washington Nationals (28 picks) or the Detroit Tigers (23 picks) winning it all, neither the Texas Rangers nor the San Diego Padres lived up to my preseason prognostication. So to be fair, I'm certainly no better than any of the so-called experts. Hell, I'm probably a lot worse.
All of that said, I debated what I wanted to do with this annual blog post again this year. Based upon the odds I heard about yesterday, the Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers are the two favorites to wind up as champions. Judging by some of the predictions posted elsewhere, the only other teams coming close to the number of people going with either one of those two clubs would be individuals choosing ... Washington or Detroit. Tampa Bay also has scattered support.
Where does that leave me then? In some divisions, I find myself concocting reasons to pick an underdog. In other races, it seems all but impossible to go against the majority. In the end, I figure I'm going to go with the outcome I'd least likely want to see happen—since I'm probably going to be wrong anyway.
Regular readers may notice I've finally scrapped the team caps in favor of logos, so hopefully this will correct my annual spacing issue. Anyway, on to the guesses:
American League East
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
No better place to start with this than this flustercluck of possibilities, and probably the best place to go against the trend that largely favors the defending champion Red Sox and perennially picked Rays. I, however, am going to opt for a New York team that added a couple of big names this off-season and retained their excellent manager who fared pretty well last year in face of multiple injuries. Yes, the Yankees infield is cause for concern, but I'm just guessing the team has better luck staying healthy this year than Boston or Tampa does. The Orioles have also exceeded expectations in recent years (did I really see John Heyman picked them to win this division?), but I simply just can't find enough reasons to believe that Baltimore has made enough changes to put them over the top here. And as for Toronto, well, at least residents there still have Rob Ford for entertainment purposes (apologies if the joke's already been used some ∞ times).
American League Central
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
I've been aching for oh-so-long to pick Kansas City to win this division, and they've never had a chance as good as the one they'll have this year. Detroit remains the popular pick, but the Tigers are now going to be led by a different manager and the rotation has lost Doug Fister. And as per usual, there's always doubts and uncertainty surrounding that bullpen. The Indians shocked many people last year, but it's hard to believe that Cleveland is going to be able to duplicate that success following the loss of many of last year's arms in the starting rotation.. The White Sox may be on the right track for the future, but this season seems more likely to be about a nice farewell to Paul Konerko before Chicago is contending again. Similarly, Minnesota has some the league's best talent in the minors, but that doesn't mean much this year with a rotation whose ceiling doesn't appear to be very high.
American League West
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
I continue to figure that one of these days, the Angels are going to turn it around. Unfortunately, I just can't get past the fact that I've continually undervalued an Oakland team whose bullpen could end up being the best in baseball. After being my World Series pick last year, Texas will boast a very strong lineup and deserves as many picks as that team is getting to win this division. In the end, I think the Athletics edge out the Rangers and Anaheim makes a push for a Wild Card berth. The Mariners put their money where their mouth is and won the Robinson Cano sweepstakes, but there remains lingering doubts about how well the Seattle rotation and bullpen stacks up against the talent found elsewhere in this division. If there's nothing else everybody can agree on, the one thing (as was the case last year) is that the Astros will once again be bringing up the rear. Yes, this club's made significant strides with its minor league system and there will be glimpses of a bright future on occasion this season, but Houston should still largely remain the league punching bag.
National League East
Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
As we wade into the National League, this is largely where I find myself less able to argue against the consensus favorites. Here in the NL East, the Nationals are coming off a tremendously disappointing 2013 campaign. Under the guidance of a rookie manager, I still expect them to rebound quite vigorously. Washington seemingly can seemingly only be undermined by health issues—something that's already crippled the defending division winner Braves coming out of spring training. With so many doubts about the Atlanta rotation that's now down two arms, I'm not terribly optimistic on another first place finish, let alone playoff berth. The bottom three spots could be quite a collection of bad with intermittent moments of greatness. I'll opt for the Mets to finish the best of the bunch largely because of the improvements made to the team's outfield, and I think the Marlins could end up surprising a lot of people this year. Philadelphia, meanwhile, strikes me as destined to becoming something of a train wreck, and Ryne Sandberg will have his work cut out for him in the dugout. The early issues between he and Jimmy Rollins do not bode well.
National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
I picked the Pirates last year and, oh, what a thrill it was to see that environment at PNC in October. You're damn right I'd love nothing more than to see Pittsburgh's fans get another taste of the playoffs than the spoiled brats in St. Louis, but Chrissake, look at that roster. Just like the Nats, it's pretty damn foolish to bet against the Cards here and the Bucs are going to be hard-pressed to keep the Missouri powerhouse's division lead to anything less than double-digits after the All-Star Break—especially since the biggest off-season move the Pirates made was to sign Edinson Volquez. Much like the East, the bottom of three of the Central can probably be ruled out of the postseason. Cincinnati had a decent run of success here (in terms of winning records, at least), but the Reds lineup will probably struggle more with Shin-Soo Choo's defection to Texas. Cincy may still have a strong enough pitching staff to finish better than either Chicago or Milwaukee. I've seen some believers in the Brewers elsewhere, but I find myself underwhelmed by a starting rotation that now features Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse. The Cubs are still waiting to be deemed "contenders" some six years into the the Theo Epstein reclamation project, but there's prized prospects who could very well be making big league appearances this year. There's a lot of questions about what difference Rick Renteria will make in his first year, but I think that Chicago should at least lower the loss total enough this year to start getting the die-hard fans to believe they're seeing something resembling progress.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Fuck this division. There's almost certainly a team I've severely underrated or one I've completely overestimated in my predicted finish here, so I guess I can feel the safest in the way I have it laid out now. The Dodgers had the best World Series odds of any team going into Spring Training, and so mark me down has having the three safest possible picks for the entire National League's division winners. I was very tempted to once again pick a Padres surprise, but I honestly feel that if any team's going to undermine Hell-A during the regular season, it'll be the Giants. The Diamondbacks are wildly unpredictable for me, perfectly capable of finishing first or totally in the cellar. Still, I feel almost as confident that it will be Colorado in fifth place at the end of the year as I do about Los Angeles finishing first, which is to say: I wouldn't bet on anything in this division.
Wild Card Playoffs
Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers
Pittsburgh Pirates over San Francisco Giants
Divisional Playoffs
Oakland Athletics over Tampa Bay Rays in five games
Kansas City Royals over New York Yankees in five games
St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates in four games
Los Angeles Dodgers over Washington Nationals in five games
League Championship Series
Oakland Athletics over Kansas City Royals in six games
Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals in six games
2014 World Series
Los Angeles Dodgers over Oakland Athletics in five games
Ugh. Yeah, nothing really could pain me more than having to see this outcome, but that's exactly why I'm picking it. Just as I've previously noted my belief that I can jinx teams by picking them to win it all, God, I hope that holds true for these Dodgers.
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