So when you consider how I've been calculating points here in my Oscar predictions (ranking them in descending order of confidence, 24 points for my top pick, 23 for my second-most confident pick, and so on), the ranking is about the only thing that might make my own picks any different from every other set you'll find elsewhere on the internet.
As always, the Best Picture race boils down to a longtime assumed front-runner attempting to hold off a late charging challenger—although this year, that challenger actually appears to be the big studio hit that might ordinarily be a heavy favorite in any other year. Still, the acting races and most technical categories appear to be all but sewn up. If nothing else, I'm sure Ellen Degeneres will be an improvement over last year's occasionally cringe-worthy host, Seth MacFarlane. I forgot that Ellen's done this before in 2007, the year that I did not post picks here and fell asleep before the final award was presented. I'm pretty confident I'll be able to stay awake throughout the broadcast this time around.
Anyway, on to my picks:
1. VISUAL EFFECTS: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould, Gravity
— As no-brainer as it gets this year.
2. DIRECTING: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
— Cuarón has already won every directing honor under the sun, and chances are good that enough voters are going to make sure that he gets this honor even if their Best Picture vote went to another film.
3. ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee and Peter Del Vecho, Frozen
— It's not as much of a dead giveaway as years past in which one of the movies here was also up for Best Picture, but none of the other four films comes close to matching the popularity of this Disney effort.
4. DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
— Wait a minute? Isn't this a category usually relegated to somewhere between spots 22-24 on this list? Yes, but consider this: The Lady in Number 6 is about the holocaust. That's almost always a certain winner, but on top of that, the 110-year-old subject of the film recently died. If anything, I was tempted to rank this even higher.
5. MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
— If I remember correctly, there was only a couple hundred dollars spent on makeup for Dallas Buyers Club. Still, consider the alternatives. Do you really think the Academy wants to have the announcement of any winner begin with the phrase "Jackass Presents"? Alternatively, do you think any voter wants to express support for The Lone Ranger?
6. WRITING — ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
— OK, now we're inching closer to categories with some room for upsets. In this category, Before Midnight is about the only real threat that I see, but I suspect that this honor is one of the few locks that 12 Years has on an otherwise Gravity-heavy ballot.
7. ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
— This has been Blanchett's award to lose all along, and the only thing that could feasibly hurt her is the potential of a Woody Allen backlash after the increased attention surrounding his molestation allegations. Of course, Roman Polanski won Best Director a few years ago despite people thinking his history would hurt his chances. I won't complain if Amy Adams pulls off an upset, but she seems to be about the only woman with a realistic shot.
8. SOUND MIXING: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro, Gravity
— I consider this to simply be another technical honor among the many almost certainly to be lavished upon Gravity.
9. SOUND EDITING: Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
— See above.10. ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
— There was a little displeasure about Leto's Golden Globes speech, but his role in Dallas Buyers is the most Oscar likely of the bunch here. Barkhad Abdi would be the most likely alternative, but I'm not counting on it.
11. MUSIC — ORIGINAL SONG: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, “Let It Go,” Frozen
— Pharell's "Happy" certainly gained some popularity and radio play at the right time, and even "Ordinary Love" shouldn't be ruled out. However, Frozen's popularity is stronger than my own opinion of the film (it was OK, not great, in my mind), and its tune is still the safest bet.
12. ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
— The weight loss involved for the role helps McConaughey's chances, and the sudden popularity of his work in HBO's True Detective right around the time ballots were being cast doesn't hurt. Fans of Wolf of Wall Street believe Leo's work was the finest of his career and even detractors might begrudgingly admit the same. I'm not writing off Chiwetel Ejifor either, but McConaughey just seems all the rage right now. It's his moment.
13. MUSIC — ORIGINAL SCORE: Steven Price, Gravity
— I debated the upset pick for Her here, as the Academy can turn to trendier scores sometimes. Ultimately, I figure the wave of technical awards carries Gravity here as well.
14. ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
— I really, really wanted to believe that Nyong'o and Jennifer Lawrence's young votes would be cancelled out by support for older first-time nominee June Squibb. Lawrence could still be the most likely nominee to upset SAG winner Nyong'o, but she just won an Oscar last year. This used to be annually referred to as a category where upsets are commonplace, but I'll again play it safe and say that the young lady from 12 Years gets her name read.
15. CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
— I certainly remembered that I need to rank this lower than I had in years past, and indeed, there's Roger Deakins again looking for his first Oscar. This time it's for Prisoners, and it would figure if he won the year I didn't pick him as I stick with my Gravity train logic.
16. COSTUME DESIGN: Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby
— It's the showiest of the bunch and leaves me nervous in how obvious it feels.
17. PRODUCTION DESIGN: Catherine Martin (Production Design); Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration), The Great Gatsby
— Basically same sentiments as above.
18. BEST PICTURE: Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen and Anthony Katagas, 12 Years a Slave
— When the nominations were first announced, I was thinking that American Hustle could suddenly be the movie that knocked off 12 Years. I'm now convinced that the critical and commercial success of Gravity could garner enough votes to let it challenge 12 Years. I'd be curious to know what this year's final vote tally is, but in the end, I think the movie that was originally forecasted to win this award upon its release will hang on.
19. DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Morgan Neville, Gil Friesen and Caitrin Rogers, 20 Feet from Stardom
— I've heard it's a real crowd-pleaser, but The Act of Killing cannot be written off.
20. WRITING — ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
— Another category in which the support for Her could net an Oscar. However, I'm thinking this could be Hustle's best shot an award too. Very tough call.
21. FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Paolo Sorrentino, The Great Beauty (Italy)
— Whereas I've had a better idea of the subject matter of the films nominated in this category in years past, I haven't a clue this year. Add to that the fact that voting/screening rules changed for this category this year, and I'm even less confident. Beauty is the common pick and thus will be mine as well.
22. FILM EDITING: Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity
23. SHORT FILM — ANIMATED: Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim, Get a Horse!
— An annual guess category, but this one features Mickey Mouse and should appeal to older voters. Sold.
24. SHORT FILM — LIVE ACTION: Mark Gill and Baldwin Li, The Voorman Problem
— No idea.
UPDATE: And so the "play it safe" strategy pays big dividends this year, as I remarkably missed on only three categories—two of which were my least confident picks. I realized that a few years ago, I incorrectly said there was a total of 325 total points in my 24 for most confident, 23 for 2nd most confident, etc. model, but it turns out that a perfect score would actually be 300. I've gone back and corrected the scores for those years, and here's an updated chart of how my Oscar picks have gone on BMC over the years:
2014 — 292 points (21/24)
2009 — 268 points (18/24)
2009 — 268 points (18/24)
2010 — 252 points (18/24)
2006 — 248 points (17/24)
2011 — 237 points (15/24)
2012 — 229 points (17/24)
2013 — 226 points (14/24)
So this was truly a record-setting year, both in terms of points and actual number of correct categories. The show itself was OK, certainly better than Seth MacFarlane's effort last year but still filled with too many needless montages and very few surprises. Yes, I'd probably complain about such surprises for ruining my score, but this year gave me little reason to take any risks going forward. Hopefully there will be some closer contests in years going forward, but this year certainly reinforced the idea that it's better to go with the favorites in most cases.
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