Thursday, October 08, 2015

2015 Division Series Predictions: A Tale of Two Brackets

Now that we've eliminated the team with the second-best regular season record (yes, I'm still bitter even though I'm cheering for the Cubs to win the World Series within five games so I can see my father weep), we get to actual baseball series. Of course, I think a best-of-five doesn't always determine the best team, but it's certainly a whole helluva lot better than the single-game dumbfuckery.

I think all four series have the potential for some pretty tense and exciting games, but I'm guessing the series in the National League should probably slaughter the American League games in terms of TV ratings. I mean, on one side you have Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. On the other side, you have Kansas City, Texas, and Canada.

Of course, as has become evident in recent years, concerns about TV ratings are hopelessly misplaced. Even a Yankees-Cubs World Series would still get pounded by any NFL game.

Now that the Wild Card round is over, there's six other clubs that now get to show whether their regular season success carries over into the playoffs. Judging by the predictions I've seen thus far, Toronto is far and away the overwhelming favorite to win the whole damn thing (I have yet to see anybody picking the Rangers to get out of this round).

The fun part (or frustrating, depending on your perspective) though is that a team could get hot right now and suddenly become nearly unbeatable for the next three weeks. So I remain skeptical that the Blue Jays just waltz away with the Commissioner's Trophy in early November (or late October).


I got both games right in the last round, so allow me to bask in my perfect record for a moment.



OK, that was fun. On to the next round


Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros in four games

This should be fun. Two fairly young clubs that love to run. Catchers on both teams could be busy trying to throw out runners attempting steals. I'd be a lot more confident in the Royals had the team not lost closer Greg Holland, but the Houston bullpen is nothing to scoff at. Still, Kansas City seems to have learned from the disastrous way it swung itself out of the Series last year. The Royals are patient at the plate and simply do not strike out, while the Astros are second-worst in the league when it comes to batters fanning. Combine that with Kansas City's league-leading UZR, and I can't see the Houston magic lasting much longer.


Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers in four games

More than likely will be all about which team gets more from its offense. I'm somewhat concerned by the fact that David Price has not won a start in the playoffs since 2008, but I just figure Toronto's batters are still much more likely to hammer the Texas pitchers than the other way around. Both of these teams had truly remarkable second halves to the regular season, but the Jays simply strike me as having the more complete lineup capable of inflicting damage in slots one through nine.


Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals in four games

The Cardinals finished the regular season with the best record in all of baseball, but they also finished without a healthy Matt Holliday or Yadier Molina. The Cubs seem to embody the getting hot phenomenon I mentioned earlier, still unbeaten thus far in October and winners of their last ... nine games? While I have my reservations about that Chicago bullpen (MARK MY WORDS—it will blow a game for the team at some point this postseason, and very possibly in this series), the Cubs are healthier, younger, and just seem fully capable of knocking off the top seed.


New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers in five games

If Texas-Toronto is all about the bats, here's the series that's all about the arms. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are both Cy Young candidates, while Jacob deGrom-Noah Syndergaard-Matt Harvey makes for one helluva rotation. I'll admit that I know little to nothing about the style of Terry Collins, but I do know that Don Mattingly has made some of the most baffling managerial decisions I've seen. I'm banking on that being the difference here and the Mets continuing their surprising run.

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