Friday, October 14, 2016

2016 League Championship Series Predictions: What Do I Know

Well, I got only one of my four predicted winners in the division series correct, and the only series that went five games was the only one I did not predict to go five games. So after nailing the wild card round, I'm now 3-3 in predictions this postseason.

I think it's safe to say that my predictions are often based on a rooting interest. I picked Orlando to beat the Lakers in the NBA Finals a few years ago, for Christ's sake. That said, it was something of a relief to me to be wrong about a couple of the series in the last round—notably the idea of another San Francisco or Boston championship did not particularly excite me.

We're probably going to now hear a lot about how fans for the four remaining teams are, to some degree, "long-suffering." Since I've seen half of these teams win title in my lifetime (in the case of the Blue Jays, more than once), I think the droughts for the other two clubs are far more significant. So if nothing else, I should be grateful that I won't have to see the Red Sox or the Giants celebrating on a field again in a few weeks (all this coming from a guy who is actively hoping that the Chicago Blackhawks can raise the Stanley Cup for the fourth time in eight years next June, so who am I crapping?).

I'd say these picks are presented in descending order of confidence, but I'm not confident about either one of these:

Los Angeles Dodgers over Chicago Cubs in six games

The Dodgers are far and away the one team I will most actively be rooting against for as long as they continue to play in October. Still, as I said last round, I've been harboring concerns for months now that this team could end up winning the whole damn thing. The Cubs are the stronger team on paper and I do not believe Chicago's young lineup is susceptible to being phased by the burden of curses and stupid shit like that, but Hell-A is scrappy and just strikes me as being likely to steal games from a Cubs team that had to rely on its pitchers to drive in runs. The Dodgers may have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this year, but October's strange and I fear that they'll figure it all out now.

Cleveland Indians over Toronto Blue Jays in six games

No idea. I'm simply basing my guess on Terry Francona being a more experienced manager than John Gibbons. The Blue Jays lineup can be frightening, but big bats in one series have a way of going silent in the next. Cleveland's elimination of the Red Sox (in three games, no less) was certainly a lot more surprising to me than Toronto knocking off the Rangers, so I'm inclined to believe the Tribe finds a way to stifle another strong lineup.

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