Looking over the matchups we did get this postseason, it seems like people might want to prepare for the possibility of coaches meeting their former teams in the playoffs this year. The first round opens with Todd McLellan and the young Oilers of Edmonton facing McLellan's previous team, the defending conference champion San Jose Sharks. The next round could see Claude Julien and the Montréal Canadiens meeting the team that fired Julien mid-season, the Boston Bruins. Wouldn't it be odd if Bruce Boudreau and the Minnesota Wild met his prior club, the Anaheim Ducks, in the Western Conference Finals? And maybe even Barry Trotz can finally carry the Washington Capitals all the way to the Stanley Cup Final to play against ... Nashville?
OK, last one (or two) are probably bullshit, but those are the ones that emerged for me. Hopefully I develop more compelling insights next round.
Here's my picks for the opening round in their usual descending order of confidence (although the last four could really go in any order):
Washington Capitals over Toronto Maple Leafs in five games
Nearly a decade ago, back when I think I was first starting to post predictions for the sports seasons, I picked the Washington Capitals to win the Stanley Cup in 2010. I think you know how that year actually panned out. The Caps won their first Presidents’ Trophy that year with the most goals scored and seven players scoring 20 or more goals during the regular season, but then Jaroslav Halak stopped 131 of 134 shots in a three-game stretch to help an eighth-seeded Habs club knock off Washington in the first round. The Capitals' history of being underwhelming in the playoffs gets repeated every single year, and it is once again hard for me to invest a lot of faith in them being the overwhelming favorites this year. Still, the team is stacked on paper. In addition to a typically lights-out playoff goalie in Braden Holtby, this year's Caps team is an extremely deep roster. I don't see any way that the young (and still somewhat messy) Maple Leafs pull off an upset here. Tempted to pick a sweep, but Toronto will steal at least one.
Chicago Blackhawks over Nashville Predators in six games
Two teams that sort of did the opposite of what was expected this year. The Preds were very popular favorites to win the conference at the beginning of the season, but the team struggled to start the year and barely grabbed the last playoff spot. The Blackhawks, meanwhile, thrived most of the year with a roster that was expected to struggle a little more than it actually did. Nashville is technically a dangerous team for Chicago to open the playoffs with, as many of the Predators' biggest weaknesses this year are areas that are not applicable in the playoffs (i.e. shootouts, 3-on-3 overtime, etc.). I'll still take Corey Crawford over Pekka Rinne this year (and same goes for both teams' backup goaltenders), and the Blackhawks seemed to do pretty well the last time they were in the playoffs after losing a Game 7 the prior year.
Boston Bruins over Ottawa Senators in five games
I assume that goal differential is a statistic that has always been a column in the NHL standings for most apps, but I only really started noticing it this year. Most playoff teams have positive goal differentials while most teams that did not qualify for the playoffs have negative goal differentials. The Ottawa Senators are the only playoff team with a negative goal differential. So, the Sens struggle to score while the Bruins boast a top line with three guys who are top 15 scorers. Craig Anderson will probably steal one game, but probably not two and definitely not four.
Edmonton Oilers over San Jose Sharks in six games
OK, now we're getting into territory where I'm getting less comfortable. Again, on paper, the Oilers have the edge here because they're younger and quicker than a Sharks team that played all the way into June last year (quick, name the last Stanley Cup Final loser that returned the following season). Furthermore, both Joe Thornton and Logan Couture suffered injuries that seem likely to linger and leave both men at something less than 100 percent. The Sharks are a team that McLellan should know pretty well, and I'm guessing he can use the home ice to get the matchups he wants in a raucous Rogers Place.
Anaheim Ducks over Calgary Flames in six games
Oh, how I do hate Anaheim. And oh, how I do loving picking against them. Still, the Ducks are begrudgingly a real contender in the West and seem like the safer pick here. I'll be rooting like hell for Calgary (and a potential Battle for Alberta in the second round), but the young Flames lack the playoff experience Anaheim will be able to utilize. The Ducks are big and physical, but a smarter team should be able to make Anaheim pay for dumb penalties. I just don't know that Calgary can be that team.
Pittsburgh Penguins over Columbus Blue Jackets in seven games
Aside from my hometown team, this is probably the series I'll be most interested to see. As we mention every year, no team has repeated as Stanley Cup winners in like 7,000 years. The Penguins have not truly resembled the championship team they trotted out on the ice last season (last year's celebrated HBK line has been pretty bad), but we should all be a little more skeptical about how good these Jackets actually are too. Columbus had that one insane winning streak in the middle of the season, but the Blue Jackets pretty much coasted the rest of the way and didn't really finish in any convincing fashion. I think both teams are susceptible here, but I'm inclined to believe that the league's best player helps the defending champions survive for at least one more round.
St. Louis Blues over Minnesota Wild in seven games
Speaking of former coaches playing their old teams, I completely forgot about Mike Yeo meeting his buddies from Minnesota here in the first round. Bruce Boudreau nearly turned the Wild into a division champion, but instead Minnesota has to open the playoffs with a Blues team many of us thought was folding up the tent when it traded away Kevin Shattenkirk. The Blues finished the season on a 15-2-2 run, and I'm willing to bet that Yeo can adjust and take advantage of Boudreau's usual commitment to his system. As was the case so often during his years in Anaheim, I foresee another Game 7 loss on home ice for Boudreau.
The Rangers finished with only one less point than the Habs, but Montréal has been a different and better team ever since hiring Claude Julien. The Canadiens are taking fewer penalties and boasting an improved penalty kill. Henrik Lundqvist, meanwhile, had something of a down year (which, in all fairness, can be attributed to a pretty lackluster defense), and New York's 5-on-5 numbers don't inspire a lot of confidence, either. Something of a toss-up, but I give the edge to Montréal.
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