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You might recall that when we were at this point last year, I played it safe and picked the four teams that we had in the previous year's Conference Finals to all return and set up two rematches. Instead, half of those teams got eliminated.
So here we are getting ready for the conference semi-finals (division finals?), and—minus the Los Angeles Kings—three teams are looking at return trips to the Conference Finals. All three will have home ice, so that should make them presumed favorites, although expert opinion I've seen thus far has been decidedly mixed.
I played it safe in making my second round picks last year, and felt immediately convinced that all four of the higher-ranked seeds would be advancing this year after leaning decidedly toward the upsets last round. The result, however, was that only half of my six so-called upset predictions panned out—and the Blackhawks as an upset still seems a little misleading since a majority of the picks I saw had them favored to beat the Predators.
Either way, my 5-3 record in the first round probably wasn't the best set of predictions on the internet, although four of those five correct picks also nailed the exact number of games the series would last. I'm entirely convinced that at least one underdog is going to overachieve and ruin what I'm about to publish below for this round's predictions—assuming I do go with all four favorites, of course.
In comparison to the train wreck that was my NHL predictions, my NBA predictions were a bit better. Of course, it's a bit easier when there's two more divisions with less teams. But hey, at least my title series is still alive in this sport. Not that I'm overly confident in its likelihood.
Truth be told, my picks for this first round of the NBA playoffs are pretty much going to be the exact opposite of what I was anticipating in the NHL. In other words, I'm playing it on the so-called "safe" side here and picking nearly all favorites.
Trust me, I didn't think this would be the story when I was looking at the Western Conference standings a few weeks ago and thought there was a very real chance that all the lower seeds might advance (this, obviously, was when Kevin Durant was still presumed to be participating in the playoffs). The West is just so loaded with talent that I can't deny that three so-called upsets would not surprise me.
Either way, I'm anticipating a very lively and exciting first round of basketball. Well, in the West at least. I'm not terribly likely to rip myself away from any hockey for any series in the East. Probably not even the Bulls. Wake me when LeBron is playing Chicago, thank you.
Judging by my predictions from before the season began, I'm probably not the guy to trust on what is likely to occur in these playoffs. Although I correctly named 11 of the 16 playoff teams, I had a mere five teams in their correct spots in the final standings. Worse yet, my predicted Stanley Cup Final this year is a complete impossibility as both clubs were among those five teams that I was incorrect about postseason life for.
San Jose and Columbus aren't even the most shocking teams missing from the bracket, as we have a defending champion failing to make the playoffs for the first time in eight years. And a lot of folks had higher expectations of Boston too.
Still, we now gloriously turn our attention to the actual playoffs tonight, roughly two months that might be my wife's least favorite time of year—although hell if I'm not trying to make it one of the child's favorites. After all, the one common prediction that is still possible is the one I was and still am most hoping for: Blackhawks raising Lord Stanley once again.
I'm not going to be keeping track of the predictions of other sites this year (here's the ESPN and Sports Illustrated picks, if you're curious), but I'm guessing I probably won't be setting any records with my guess anyway. I've seen a lot of chalk in some places, but it just seems to me that this year is especially ripe for upsets. Now part of that is probably my own rooting interests (for this round, at least), but perhaps this could be something similar to 2006 when the lower seeds in an entire conference stunned the favorites.
Again, this could all just be wishful thinking, but I'm pretty confident that if nothing else, I'm bound to be pretty damn entertained over the course of the next several weeks.
Dammit, I had meant to type this up during one of my lunch breaks at work, but, well, you know. Been mighty quiet around these parts.
Anyway, I'm going to be limiting my comments to pretty much just the following intro. I had toyed with the picking the Cubs to win it all this year because of the Back to the Future 2 correlation, but it looks like Jesse Spector already beat me to that. I haven't looked for many of the predictions of others (we did get a copy of Sports Illustrated in which the magazine picked the Indians[!]), but I'm guessing that the Nationals have to be a pretty (deserving) popular favorite (once again).
Seeing as my predicted winner basically never wins the World Series, I went with the Dodgers last year and the logic paid off because Los Angeles did not win the World Series. I did get all five of the National League postseason teams correct, and I'm guessing most everybody has the same three division winners in that league again this year with the only variation being in the wild cards. The American League, on the other hand, is pretty up in the air.
I almost liked the idea of going with the Dodgers again just to jinx Hell-A. But if we're looking at recent history alternating Cardinals and Giants pennants, then this should be St. Louis going to the Series this year. So without any real explanation, here's my stabs at how each team is going to finish this year's baseball season:
I've gained slightly more interest in the Oscar race ever since what was essentially me being totally clueless back when nominations were announced. However, I believe I've only seen one (UPDATE: three) of the eight films nominated for Best Picture this year, and I remained tempted to balk at posting picks this year.
Still, I couldn't resist putting some guesses in order of confidence and seeing how I scored things once again. Admittedly, I'm again playing it fairly safe since most every category has a clear frontrunner. However, what makes this year particularly interesting is that probably the two races that remain the biggest mysteries are what will be the final two awards presented.
I'm once again typing this post during a lunch break, so forgive me if I decline to offer accompanying comments for all 24 picks this year. I can only say that I found myself agreeing with many of the sentiments that were expressed in Drew Magary's "Hater’s Guide To The 2015 Oscars" (especially love the guns as therapy for PTSD and 12 Years a Slave winning last year causing Selma reluctance). Seriously, most of his comments for the Best Picture nominees are pretty much exactly what I had planned on saying, so I'd recommend checking it out because he probably put it in a much funnier way than I would've.
I can't say I'm especially interested in watching the entire show unfold before those final two awards get handed out, as Doogie Howser serving as host could be entertaining but could also mean overkill with musical numbers. Still, at least it'll be OK to have something to put on the TV that the wife and I can agree on.
The biggest drag of having to wait two weeks between the conclusion of the AFC and NFC Championship games and the kickoff to the Super Bowl is that we are forced to endure a fortnight of tired coverage that simply wants us to get to the god damn game already. This year, the first week was largely dedicated to all of the (pun not originally intended, but I won't change it) overblown controversy surrounding balls in the AFC title game being allegedly deflated by the Patriots. Keeping in mind that New England won this game by a final score of 45-7, it is fairly ridiculous for some people to have screamed as loudly as they did about the damage this revelation caused. For most level-headed sports fans, it was another disappointing example of how one team will look for any edge it can find, but it wasn't exactly the 1919 White Sox here.
Our second week of Super Bowl coverage devoted entirely too much time to Marshawn Lynch's antics in dealing with the media. Again, a tired and essentially boring non-story, but some members of the thousands-plus credentialed media members want us to believe that we should be outraged. Sorry. Don't care. Get to the football.
When this game finally does kick off, it looks like we'll be in store for another good one. Much like last year's big game, I really could find myself satisfied with either one of these teams emerging victorious. I'm hoping for one major difference from last year though in that this year's Super Bowl will actually be a much closer game. Seeing as predictions tracked at Pickwatch currently have an even 50/50 split, I think it's a reasonable expectation. I'll keep my fingers crossed. Just as soon as I remove my fingers from my ears.
According to handy Pickwatch chart, I was one of only nine observers to correctly predict all four playoff game outcomes last weekend. Additionally, the two winners and two losers in the AFC matched my pre-season predictions—although in different matchups. So we end up with a championship round in which three of the four teams I had being here are still alive, and the one I didn't pick is probably the team I'm leaning most heavily toward winning the Super Bowl next month.
Once again, the biggest story to come out of last week was another controversial call. And maybe because I'm a Bears fan who remembered that infamous Calvin Johnson catch that wasn't in 2010, I immediately thought back to that terrible call as soon as I saw the Dez Bryant play this past weekend. Thus, it couldn't have been less surprising when referees made the correct call as far as the dumb rule is written. Of course, the outrage in the Lions-Bears opener was nowhere near what it was in the Twitterverse following a critical play late in an NFL playoff game. So maybe this off-season, the league will actually do something about the rule. But I'm not holding my breath.
I will cross my fingers and hope that we can get through these final three games without any more officiating concerns dominating the discussion afterward. That would be nice since there seems to be good reason to believe that we could get some fairly entertaining contests to conclude this season.
As I said back in June after our daughter came into this world, certain "annual" posts were probably going to be abandoned. And while I included the Oscar predictions I've been making for more than two decades as a category that would be among those that would be safe, I did not realize until late this afternoon that Academy Award nominations are getting announced tomorrow morning. As you might guess, I haven't gotten out to the movies very much, what with a baby and all (although Mom says little Lucy has actually slept peacefully through the two films she took her to).
So it is with some regret that I post this notice that I will not be doing my semi-usual posting of predicted nominees. I have not been following the race at all this year and I would basically be regurgitating the predictions made by two or three other "experts" I read. It was fun in the past to spend these evenings putting together the gold-bracketed pictures of expected nominees and then changing the colors to the lime green that corresponded to correct guesses or red for wrong ones. But that will not be the case this year.
I was right on there only being one road team victory last week, but I just picked the wrong road team to pull off an upset. For a good while there last Sunday, it certainly appeared that the Lions were going to make me look good (figuratively speaking, of course), but then a mysterious flag-that-wasn't ended up being the most discussed aspect of the weekend. Nice job, NFL.
So two right, two wrong for me in the first week of the playoffs. A lot of other observers certainly did a lot better. But if I want to feel somewhat better about myself, I'd point out that I had all four of the AFC teams playing this weekend being active in this round in my pre-season predictions. Yes, completely different matchups, but let me enjoy the sunshine where I can find it please.
It once again appears that all the home teams this weekend are overwhelming favorites, but we know that there's bound to be at least one underdog that leaves us stunned. Maybe it won't have to be the result of some very questionable officiating.
Watching the inaugural college football playoff games on New Year's Day, I briefly regretted not posting my predictions here for those contests. Of course, I really haven't dedicated any space on this blog to collegiate athletics. And really, I haven't dedicated much space here to anything in recent months. Babies will do that, I suppose.
Still, with the NFL playoffs beginning this weekend, it's as good a time as any to look back on my predictions from the beginning of the year. As has so often been the story, I was right on a few, and wrong on many more. My pick for Super Bowl winner this year indeed made the playoffs, but my predicted big game loser did not. I had no divisions this season in which I got all four finishes correct. So on, so forth.
I don't really know how much of the playoffs I'll actually be able to watch, but I will say that very early on in the young daughter's life, it has seemed as though she's perhaps more spellbound by football than any other sport I've had on in the bedroom while holding her. Maybe it's the uniforms, the maybe it's the bright colors. Maybe it was just all a matter of timing (I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that hockey ultimately appeals most to her). I'll probably be getting a few more chances to test the football theory over the next month though.
I wasn't right about much this NFL season, and I'm not terribly optimistic about how I'll fare in predicting games over the next few weeks either. I'll flat out admit that I could really pick any of the eight teams playing this weekend to win, and I won't be the least bit surprised if I get all four of the following predictions wrong.
Nonetheless, here's a few guesses just to humor myself. I suppose.
