2009 Stanley Cup Finals

I suppose if we were using the 5-hole.com scoring system, I'd have an argument but alas, the gamble in the last round didn't pay off and the charming post-season tale of the Carolina Hurricanes ended in a dreadfully humiliating sweep at the hands of the heavily favored Pens. So, not much change in our standings between me and the boys from ESPN and Yahoo!:

Scott Burnside, ESPN: 12-2 (5)
Barry Melrose, ESPN: 12-2 (1)
YOURS TRULY: 11-3 (6)
Matthew Barnaby, ESPN: 11-3 (4)
Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 11-3 (2)
E.J. Hradek, ESPN: 11-3 (1)
Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 10-4 (2)
Matt Romig, Yahoo!: 10-4 (2)
John Buccigross, ESPN: 10-4 (1)
Greg Wyshynski, Puck Daddy: 9-5 (2)
Ross McKeon, Yahoo!: 9-5 (2)
Jim Fox, Yahoo!: 9-5 (0)

So, we've come to one final series and from the picks I've seen so far, it's a pretty good split between those predicting a repeat in Motown and those believing the city of Pittsburgh is about to bring home its second sporting crown of the year. As for me:

Pittsburgh Penguins over Detroit Red Wings in six games

Picking with my heart, perhaps—not that my head is totally sold on Detroit, either. The Wings had three overtime games with the Hawks in that five-game series, so they didn't exactly waltz into the Finals with the authoritative tone the Penguins set. And if Pittsburgh's late-season turnaround wasn't convincing enough, their most recent games most certainly should be: They've won eight of their last nine games and allowed only one power-play goal in the conference finals. Considering that the Red Wings' age has been showing with numerous injuries and the team is a little more concerned about this back-to-back deal than you'd like to hear a conference champion admit, it's just too hard for me to believe that it's not the Pens drinking from Lord Stanley's Cup when all is said and done.

NBA Playoffs, Conference Finals

It seemed for a brief while that I might get all four series right on the nose there last round, but then the Magic went and routed the Celtics in Boston and it ended up taking the Lakers seven games to get rid of those pesky Rockets—despite Houston playing without two of its biggest stars. And my record ends up being pretty awful by comparison to the rest of the experts I'm tracking here:

John Hollinger, ESPN: 11-1 (4)
David Thorpe, ESPN: 11-1 (3)
Ball Don't Lie, Yahoo!: 11-1 (2)
Jalen Rose, ESPN: 11-1 (2)
Chris Sheridan, ESPN: 10-2 (7)
Henry Abbott, ESPN: 10-2 (4)
Ken Berger, CBS Sports: 10-2 (3)
Lyle Crouse, CBS Sports: 10-2 (3)
Nunzio Ingrassia, CBS Sports: 10-2 (3)
J.A. Adande, ESPN: 10-2 (2)
Johnny Ludden, Yahoo!: 10-2 (2)
Sergio Gonzalez, CBS Sports: 10-2 (1)
Kenny Smith, Yahoo!: 10-2 (1)
Chris Broussard, ESPN: 9-3 (5)
Chad Ford, ESPN: 9-3 (5)
Tim Legler, ESPN: 9-3 (4)
Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports: 9-3 (3)
Marc Stein, ESPN: 9-3 (3)
YOURS TRULY: 8-4 (4)

Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo!: 8-4 (3)

You'll notice that I added the experts from CBS Sports this round, mostly just so I could have somebody who actually picked Orlando to get to the NBA Finals. I would've added their hockey experts for the NHL predictions, but their staff's picks don't include the number of games they expect the series to go, so it doesn't strike me as having much point to it (although three of their four experts have Carolina beating Pittsburgh, so I could have had some company, seeing as everybody at both ESPN and Yahoo! has the Penguins).

There's also the matter of scoring, which CBS is doing a little differently than I (two points for correct team and an additional point if the number of games is correct), but I'm still sticking with the actual number of correct picks as being of greater importance—even though the CBS model would have Chris Sheridan and his seven exactas in first place.

Anyway, it's late, I've got my second-to-last day of community service in the morning and the next round begins tomorrow, so here's who I've got going to the NBA Finals this year:

Cleveland Cavaliers over Orlando Magic in six games

I read a few times about what great defense the Magic play and am still sort of snickering to myself about how I said they were going to be a team that would surprise people in the playoffs, only to go with Boston in the last round. Joke's on me, I suppose. But here's the mighty Cavs and their last hurdle for LeBron's return to the NBA Finals. Oh, and did you see King James' Player Efficiency Ranking so far this post-season? It stands at 37.9, more than seven points higher than what Dwight Howard's been putting out. And according to the Wikipedia definition, that PER is classified as a "Year For the Ages." Indeed.

Denver Nuggets over Los Angeles Lakers in six games

More than likely, this is more wishful thinking than objective analysis on my part—but the guy on top of that current leaderboard made his case for picking the Nuggets in six as well, sharing the same thought Ken Berger began his series preview with regarding which player is likely to have the biggest influence in Los Angeles' success or failure:

Anyone who expresses a high degree of confidence in predicting this series is lying or deceiving themselves. This is one of the toughest playoff series to predict in recent memory, and the reason is the Nuggets might be facing two different opponents: The Lakers with an effective, productive Andrew Bynum and the Lakers without that. Completely different teams, which suggests two completely different and equally plausible outcomes in this series based on Bynum's effectiveness.

At this point, I've been blown away by how good Denver's defense has proven to be as well as how much they can run up the score. Carmelo Anthony has been playing phenomenally—perhaps the best we've seen him play since coming into the NBA. And that leads me to my absurd sort of backwards logic about how the NBA might actually embrace a Cleveland-Denver Finals, which sounds like a marketing nightmare at first.

But when you consider that six years ago, Nuggets fans were keeping their fingers crossed that the lottery balls would bounce their way and they would get LeBron, they instead ended up with 'Melo. And wouldn't that be a nice little trip down memory lane for the title, determining if maybe Denver lucked out by in fact landing Anthony or if they really are just doomed with unfortunate luck.

It could be worse, I say. After all, it was Detroit who pulled the Sam Bowie that year and passed on Carmelo for Darko Milicic. Just to make it really sting for Pistons fans, Toronto and Miami, picking fourth and fifth, seemed to find a couple of pretty decent players as well.

So, for fans who believe the NBA isn't going to allow the Lakers to NOT get to the NBA Finals (conspiracy theories have always been in quite the abundance for professional basketball, helped none by, oh, one bad apple) for fear of television ratings hell, I'm going to respectfully disagree—mostly because I don't think even the league could stop the Nuggets if they wanted to.

Party like it's 2003, I say.

Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

A pretty damn fine NHL post-season so far, I'd have to say, and there's not much reason to believe these two remaining series and the Stanley Cup Finals won't be a fittingly exciting finish to the season. The fact that the Blackhawks are in the final four teams just solidifies my belief that this is going to be one hell of a summer.

Again, even considering the longer list of experts used over at 5-hole.com, look who's on top after two rounds of my picks compared to the boys from ESPN and Yahoo!:

YOURS TRULY: 10-2 (6)
Scott Burnside, ESPN: 10-2 (4)
Barry Melrose, ESPN: 10-2 (1)
Matthew Barnaby, ESPN: 9-3 (3)
Sean Leahy, Puck Daddy: 9-3 (2)
E.J. Hradek, ESPN: 9-3 (1)
Pierre LeBrun, ESPN: 8-4 (2)
Matt Romig, Yahoo!: 8-4 (2)
Greg Wyshynski, Puck Daddy: 8-4 (2)
John Buccigross, ESPN: 8-4 (1)
Ross McKeon, Yahoo!: 7-5 (2)
Jim Fox, Yahoo!: 7-5 (0)

Now, I know what you're thinking and, yes, I don't know why Yahoo! uses Jim Fox for their main scorecard on the playoff pages either. My resume will be sent to the website sometime next week, perhaps.

I wanted to put off making these picks a little longer, mostly because I could see any one of these remaining teams drinking from Lord Stanley's Cup. Alas, the time is here and hopefully this explains how torn I was for each series:

Detroit Red Wings over Chicago Blackhawks in seven games

WHY I THINK CHICAGO COULD WIN: Besides my obvious fandom, there's reason to believe that the Hawks continue to thrive in their role as the young, overachieving underdogs. I still don't know whether the team's seven goals in the clinching victory over Vancouver was more indicative of their firepower or if perhaps I and many others were guilty of hyping Roberto Luongo to be a little bit better than he truly is. But I guess I'm leaning more towards the former than the latter, and if the Hawks can play clean and get Detroit to spend more time in the penalty box, then Chicago's got a fighting chance. Their Power Play performance in the first two rounds should frighten fans in "Hockeytown," and you do have to begin to wonder about basic stamina when the league's youngest team is playing the oldest.

WHY I THINK DETROIT WILL WIN: Even though they're the No. 2 seed in the West, the Wings are still the defending champs and were expected by many to repeat this year. While Anaheim certainly pushed Detroit to the max, the Red Wings still responded like they always do and got the job done. And that's even more remarkable from my perspective, seeing as I had thought the controversial ending to Game Three (ESPN's Michael Wilbon said on PTI that he considered the non-goal to perhaps be one of the five all-time biggest "screw jobs") could very well be the sort of thing that a team doesn't get over. But here are the Red Wings for the third year in a row in the conference finals. And if their age hurts how they hold up, their experience is going to allow them to capitalize on those Chicago mistakes that have made me wince all season: Hawks forwards trying to make moves to escape tight situations and ultimately turning the puck over, usually leading to a two-on-one that goes the other way. And while Khabibulin is still preferrable to Osgood, it's a fairly safe assumption that either goalie is going to give up about three goals a game. But I, like many others, have questioned Osgood for quite some time now and the guy seemingly always has a way of finding a way to win.

Carolina Hurricanes over Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games

WHY I THINK PITTSBURGH COULD WIN: This was the team I saw getting back to the Finals at the beginning of the season, and while they certainly took their time regaining their form, well ... boy, they sure found it. Offensively, they're every bit as intimidating—if not more—as last season's bunch.

WHY I THINK CAROLINA WILL WIN: Bottom line here, I guess, is I believe Cam Ward is the best goalie remaining in the playoffs. When the Canes sent their Game Seven against Boston into overtime, I just knew the Bruins were toast. Indeed, this has been a sort of storybook post-season for a sixth-seeded Carolina squad that has played very well at both ends of the ice. It has long been said that it's better to be lucky than good, and right now I believe that Lady Luck has been spending an awful lot of time with the team from Raleigh. I suppose their time together could be due to expire at any moment, but considering that this should be a pretty open, fast-moving series with both teams on the attack, the result will likely come down to goaltending. Ward has the most minutes, the highest save percentage and the most saves of any of the four remaining starting goaltenders. And his two shutouts in the playoffs are more than what Fleury, Osgood and Khabibulin have combined.

NBA Playoffs, Round Two

Update forthcoming with experts' scores from the first round and the usual additional thoughts, but in the interest of getting predictions up before any game actually begins, here's how I'm seeing the Western Conference semifinals that are locked in so far (I'll get to the East later):

Yeah, so my finish atop the NHL predictions (admittedly only because of the "correct winner and number of games" bonus) didn't carry over to the NBA, where my opening round was tied for the lowest score among the experts I'm tracking:

Chris Sheridan, ESPN: 7-1 (5)
John Hollinger, ESPN: 7-1 (4)
Marc Stein, ESPN: 7-1 (3)
David Thorpe, ESPN: 7-1 (3)
Ball Don't Lie, Yahoo!: 7-1 (2)
Jalen Rose, ESPN: 7-1 (2)
Kenny Smith, Yahoo!: 7-1 (1)
Chris Broussard, ESPN: 6-2 (5)
Henry Abbott, ESPN: 6-2 (3)
Chad Ford, ESPN: 6-2 (3)
Tim Legler, ESPN: 6-2 (3)
J.A. Adande, ESPN: 6-2 (2)
Johnny Ludden, Yahoo!: 6-2 (2)
Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo!: 5-3 (2)
YOURS TRULY: 5-3 (2)

As you can see, a bit stronger showing here among the group as a whole as opposed to the NHL, but big ups are in order for ESPN's Chris Sheridan for hitting five of his seven correct picks on the nose. And that guy also is the only one of the bunch actually picking the Rockets to get to the Western Conference Finals. Marc Stein and Kenny Smith are the only two going with Dallas to to advance over Denver, nobody's got Atlanta winning more than a pair of their games against Cleveland, and of the 15 guys I've got listed there, we've got 60 percent in favor of the Magic and the other 40 percent with the Celtics for at least one series that doesn't seem like a forgone conclusion.

As for where my picks fall, well, nothing too shocking this round (in my humble opinion):

Cleveland Cavaliers over Atlanta Hawks in four games

LeBron and the boys have been resting while Atlanta had to wait all the way until a seventh game to decide whether they wanted to kick somebody's ass or have their own ass thoroughly kicked.

They won't be afforded the same luxury against Cleveland, who will likely give the young Hawks a rude welcome to the conference semifinals in Ohio and then promptly take the air out of the arena in Georgia before any series can ever really begin.

Denver Nuggets over Dallas Mavericks in five games

Do you remember that turd of a Nuggets team you saw last year? You know, the one that more or less couldn't have been bothered to play defense against the Lakers in their opening round series? Yeah, well, this Denver team is not that Denver team. And beyond the widely accepted idea that the Nuggets clearly got the better of the trade with the Pistons that brought Chauncey Billups to the Rocky Mountains, Denver made quick work of the Hornets because this year's squad actually complements its versatile scoring threat with some pretty solid D. If Chris-freaking-Paul can't jump-start a pick-and-roll against these guys, do you really think the Mavericks are going to fare any better?

I'm not ready to say that fans in La-La Land should be shaking in their boots, but Billups was on that Detroit squad that stunned a heavily favored Lakers team in a five-game NBA Finals just a few years ago (I was thinking of that squad when I picked the Mavericks to win the NBA Championship in seven games a couple of years ago). Might want to take the guys this dude rolls with pretty seriously is all I'm sayin'.

Los Angeles Lakers over Houston Rockets in six games

Fans in Houston feel overly accomplished this season, having finally made it out of the first round in something like seven tries. Whew, that was fun. Now you get the Lakers. Yep, that sure was a fun, accomplished season of Houston Rockets basketball.

In all seriousness, I'm admittedly the fool for underestimating how well the Rockets have played without T. Mac. After McGrady went down, the Rockets went 22-8 and now they polished off a Blazers squad with only a few irritations. And since Ron Artest is actually providing more on-court presence than off-court drama, who's to say where Houston's limits are?

Well, if we're to judge by how the Rockets played L.A. this season, then the supposedly tougher defenders Houston was to blanket Kobe with didn't do all that much to slow him or the Lakers down: L.A. won all four meetings and outscored the Rockets by an average of 15 points in the second halves of those games.

Boston Celtics over Orlando Magic in seven games

The epic battle to see which team gets to be the last one from the East stepped on as King James nears the throne. That said, after that batshit crazy opening round the Celtics just had, who's to say what the champs—or what's left of them—can or can't do?

And while Orlando was a team that I spent most of the regular season warning about stealing a series just like this one we are about to have, I am actually going to go with the team that has the home court here to advance. The Magic really didn't impress me against the Sixers as I had expected them to do, and while I think they've certainly got the talent on paper to still take this series, I still feel that it's just going to take a team at one level higher to finally end the Boston reign.