Final Thoughts on 2009-10 NBA Season: Where being right feels wrong

After two rounds of pretty lackluster basketball, the final two rounds of the NBA Playoffs finally delivered the goods—most notably this year's Finals, the same matchup I had predicted at the beginning of the year (for the second straight year). And if this post doesn't end up looking as catastrophic as the NHL Final Thoughts did, my logic was still the same in hoping that like my 2009 picks, the predicted runner-up would actually triumph once again. Instead, things ended up exactly as I pretty much feared they would, with the Lakers pretty much waltzing through the West before getting probably the stiffest challenge they've had for any of of the five titles Phil Jackson has brought to the team.

My own prognosticating this post-season was an improvement over last year's mark (and at least this year, I was no worse than Jalen Rose), but there were certainly those who did better:

NBA Finals Predictions: Saving the best for last

Even with those beloved Blackhawks a mere pair of wins away from claiming their first Stanley Cup of my lifetime in a series that's featured three intensely competitive games to kick off the final hockey contests of the season, there's no denying that this NBA Finals promises to be the best finale for the sport in a number of years—even superior to the last time these two clubs played a couple of years back. 

So if you were expecting me to whine about our umpteenth meeting between these two franchises for the NBA Championship, I'm sorry to disappoint. Lest we forget, this was, after all, the exact matchup I had in my pre-season picks.

So do I stick with what I said then? Well, the video there—if it hasn't made your browser crash (and sorry if it did)—should be a pretty good indicator of what I'm really hoping for. Although, any Laker in tears should suffice.

But before we get to my selfish desires, here's an updated look at how the experts and the non-expert (READ: Me) stand after last round's picks heading into the final round:

NBA Playoff Confrence Finals Predictions: LATE ARRIVAL

It appears Ball Don't Lie will not be publishing their picks this round either (KD did mention he had the Lakers in six in a separate post, whatever that's worth), but here's the late picks from the guys at CBS Sports. I know, I could've just gone back and pasted this over that monkey washing the cat in the original post for this round's picks, but I'm leaving those gifs up for future reference so I can remember which of these sites I add fuck this thing up every year. That, and the monkey's funny. Obviously.

NBA Playoff Conference Finals Predictions: Life after LeBron

Alas, the top seed has been vanquished and we're down to our final four teams in the NBA—and maybe finally in store for a couple of competitive series after three of the last four series ended in sweeps.

Three of those four missing expert picks from the Yahoo experts did finally show up for last round, but the boys at Ball Don't Lie never posted conference semifinal picks. They may get to it this round, but so far nothing from them and instead of using gratuitous photos of the author for spots where I'm still waiting for expert picks from now on, I will instead be using this classic image of a monkey washing a cat.

Final Thoughts on 2009-10 Chicago Bulls: Same Old Song and Dance

The Trib had this graphic of King James on the front page of their sports section this morning for this story, and that of course brought a great many things to my mind at once.

First, I thought back to one of the many sports magazine covers I had way back before I entered my teens—and that I had just been discussing one issue in particular that even way back then was partaking in the photographic fun that these days is more commonplace, especially during many fans' free agency fantasies. LeBron here, for example, has already been imagined in multiple jerseys. But I'm fairly certain that the issue I'm thinking of was called Inside Sports, and the issue I'm thinking of had Michael Jordan on its cover during one of the years it was still uncertain where he would end up after the season—as though there were ever any doubt. It's easy to say in hindsight, but when I brought this up last week, I was wondering if maybe that's what we're about to see now: a whole slew of LeBron speculation going all sorts of other places when the guy just ends up staying where exactly he is.

I looked for that cover with multiple images of Michael, the same shot of him driving to the basket but one almost certainly in a Knicks jersey, another probably in a Lakers jersey, and most likely another contender I'm forgetting. But I couldn't find that cover anywhere on a Google Image search, although I do remember owning this issue. And this one for some reason looks a lot like a comic book character drawing of mine I just saw.

But like I said, this image brought multiple things to mind at once, because it's so easy to get off-topic when talking about this past year's Bulls squad seeing as last season was just essentially another one that didn't count. By now, I guess we should be getting used to this.

Round Two NBA Playoffs Predictions: Timing is everything

Whatever I write here, I'll probably just strike through anyway later when, you know, the first round is actually over. And when those other sites have all their picks up. And I've tabulated the leaderboard. Anyway, for the time being ...

UPDATE: First round still not complete ... another conference semifinal series starts tomorrow ... Vinny Del Negro still head coach of Chicago Bulls ...  

ANOTHER UPDATE: I should've remembered how the NBA post-season scheduling never makes this transition between rounds very easy for little collections of predictions like what I try to do here. And alas, just like last year, even with every second round series now having gotten underway, Yahoo is still missing predictions for a series and I never saw any at all for this round from the boys at Ball Don't Lie—which would really be unfortunate if I don't come across future picks of theirs since two from their trio went eight for eight. 

From the Department of the Inevitable, the axe that started coming down in, oh, December, finally fell on the proverbial neck of Vinny Del Negro yesterday, so final thoughts on the Bulls coming soon. As I'm sure we all know, many of us (no just in Chicago, me does think) seem to be actually more interested in the coming off-season's free agency period and how that affects next season rather than whether it's Kobe or LeBron hoisting the championship at the end of this year.

Somebody's bound to pick an upset eventually, but here's how things went to start with the first round of picks (in case you're new here, the number in parentheses denotes the number of series correctly predicted that also had the exact number of games correct):

Round One NBA Playoffs Predictions: The song remains the same

By comparison to the NHL predictions I just looked back on earlier this week, the NBA picks for this year were far more successful for a similarly formatted league. I had 16 of the 30 NBA team's final spots correct this year, and this being the first time at guessing how divisions would turn out, I had five of the six winners correct. (None of this, by the way, sounds really bragging-worthy to me.)

Now heading into the NBA playoffs, once again my originally predicted matchup for the Finals is indeed still technically possible—although it's not entirely likely nor is it at all basically desirable. As a matter of fact, the mantra here at BMC remains a hearty "ANYBODY BUT L.A." which will we be repeated each and every round—both boldfaced and italicized for richly derved emphasis.

From my original predictions, I had six of the eight playoff teams in the East right and seven of eight in the West. We'll get to how off I was on their seeds in each prediction that follows here, with the same sites' experts I compared my awful showing last year to. Like the NHL, there's only but a couple series with difference of opinion here but here's the others' picks first:

The Bulls' Fourth Quarter: I don't want to be like Candy

This spoof is the conclusion to the original scene I posted over on my Tumblr, and now that the Bulls went and made the playoffs, the exaggerated death seems like an even more appropriate parable for this season. We could have slunk out of this NBA season quietly just having missed the playoffs, but NO SIR! Why stop there when you could be that very first stone to be absolutely stomped on in what appears to be King James' imminent coronation as an NBA Champion (or at least that appears to be the early majority assumption—my picks will be up tomorrow, honestly).

Truth be told, the Bulls struggled through this final quarter of the season, and things finally seemed to explode in a perfect shitstorm, what with TNT's Craig Sager getting attention for something other than his ridiculous suits and calling attention to the severe lack of good beat reporting we've been missing in this city all season long. I'm sure I'll have further thoughts on the whole Paxon-Del Negro shoving incident and all of its fallout when Bulls season officially concludes in, oh, probably about a week. 

Fantasy Playoffs: At least I'm a participant

I can't remember when or where I promised updates on my forays into fantasy basketball and hockey—seeing how hot I did in fantasy football last year and all (READ: DEAD LAST, 12TH OF 12). But I guess that just goes to prove how right I was about lacking "the fire and the passion" so many others seem to have when it comes to this stuff.

Of course, as opposed to the NFL version where seemingly everybody and their entire family tree participates in fantasy football, I don't have any IRL friends who try either one of the NHL or NBA versions. And considering two of the three leagues I'm in aren't the head-to-head weekly style that makes the fantasy football better parallel the sport a little better, it's hard to focus on a certain night when in the end, it's all going to come down to points. Still, one of the two fantasy hockey leagues I'm in did involve regular week-long head-to-head contests that determined these brackets you see there (my team is the No. 3 seed, the name obviously using hockey terminology as a parable for my relationship status these days). And since I said I'd talk about this stuff, now seems the best time to write this stuff down.

The Bulls' Third Quarter: The waiting is the hardest part

I'll give the Bulls one decent-looking coin for this latest quarter, seeing as they did do, you know, something before the trade deadline. The moves of John Salmons and Tyrus Thomas weren't front page-type deals, but Ken Berger of CBS Sports did place the Bulls among his deadline winners for clearing the cap space they needed to in order to get at least one of those big free agents everybody will be clamoring for this coming summer. I'm keeping the two other dirty looking quarters though, because with just over 20 games to go now in this year's campaign—and just like I was feeling during the last quarter's end—I'm still not expecting anything more from this particular squad beyond the first round.

Shortly after that last write-up about the Bulls, the team had a minor notable accomplishment when they became the first team to win five consecutive road games against teams with winning records at the end of January.

Then they came home and lost to the Clippers.

The Bulls currently sit one game over .500 at 31-30 and occupy the seventh seed, which would earn them an opening round date with the Magic—a team they beat the first time they played them this season in Chicago, then got thumped by 20 points the next time Orlando came to town and have one more date in Florida next week. Of course, the Bulls are going to be in the midst of five teams fighting it out for four spots and 11 of their remaining 21 are against teams with winning records—three of those other 10 games being against teams currently at .500.

Since there's really no good idea of when we're getting that crazy bastard Joakim back from the plantar fasciitis thing, the only thing I'm quite confident I can expect in the coming weeks will be repeated nonsense about how making or missing the playoffs will have some sort of effect on whether free agents want to sign with Chicago. That, of course, is utter nonsense.

As long as the checks clear and the contract's valid, I think if the Bulls are able to outbid everybody else on at least one of those guys that keeps getting mentioned, they'll land the big name they're seeking this off-season. There's been hopes they can pick up two big names, but that's going to take a bit more wheeling and dealing than I really believe GarPax can pull off when considering the bidding war they'll be in.

If nothing else, I can just slap on my 3D glasses and watch how the whole thing plays out. Or I can keep watching this:

The Bulls' Second Quarter: In which trade possibilities and free agency once again precede—possibly supercede—any genuine playoff optimism

I know things are bad when my uncle is joking (hopefully) about "adopting Memphis" as his new favorite NBA team.

My understanding is that the TV ratings for the team are actually better than last year, but I've also heard the topic of "Where's the outrage?" suggested more than once in regards to how Bulls fans are taking their usually sub-.500 team this year. I guess we're ignoring the continuing retardation of Derrick Rose by surrounding him with talent that "doesn't mesh well at all with his skill set." It seems to be OK since Rose is still young and the general consensus is that we're doing what it seems like Bulls fans do every year for as long as it's been since Jordan was called for pushing off made the shot that won us our last World Championship: We're relying on our next big acquisition. You know, that one move that'll put us over the top. I'm sure every city's got a similar franchise.

These days, that means the same Kirk Hinrich some people actually couldn't bring themselves to talk about moving for Kobe-fucking-Bryant a few years back is now back on the table when everybody plays fantasy GM. Tyrus Thomas is sort of the same story, but probably a tougher piece to move. And it's all about moving whomever we can to make cap room and hopefully land one of the many big fish, seeing as seemingly every game-changer becomes available during the much-ballyhooed free agent class of 2010. I think I've seen this story before, and usually all the biggest and best names from said "class" go to other teams and fans in Chicago are supposed to get excited about ... Ron Mercer. I'd try to think of a fine example of the sub-par talent I fear we're going to have end up settling with as what the front office will deem the best product they could offer, but that's ever-lingering thoughts on management that I was bitching about when I summarized my feelings after the first quarter of the season.

And since we last talked about the Bulls here on BMC, the team indeed still employs our man Vinny as the head coach. But just to point to one example that I'm not just another meatball blaming the front office without some real justification, Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski wrote up a fairly blistering piece following GM (kind of) Gar Forman's terribly awkward press appearance—amidst the daily speculation regarding Del Negro's job—in which he came out and basically told the media ... well, a couple lies and certainly not anything resembling a vote of confidence in that coach they have.

With a victory over the Spurs in San Antonio this evening, the Bulls have now won three in a row and are only one game under .500 on the year. The fact that this little winning streak (they had a pair of four-game winning streaks in this second quarter of the season) comes in the midst of a seven-game road trip is mildly remarkable, but as was said on the radio the other day, this year's Bulls team never gives you a feeling that they have something figured out that will translate to the consistency needed for, say, an extended playoff run.

And who's talking about a playoff run for these Bulls this season? The Cavs, as expected, will probably have the Central wrapped up by the time I'm done posting this and even if the Bulls do get into the playoffs (remember, it's actually harder to miss the post-season than make it since more teams get in than not in both the NBA and NHL), they'll be a lower seed that—at best—gives us another entertaining first-round series. Besides aforementioned Cleveland, then Boston, Orlando or even the Atlanta team that I had pegged as going out to the Bulls at the beginning of this year all appear to be squads that should have no problems with Chicago.

All of this, of course, assumes no roster changes despite the quiet hope for a move with slightly more news weight than today's shipment of Aaron Gray to New Orleans. The game that sadly leaps out to me the most from these past 20 or so contests since last writing about the Bulls would have to be the historic-in-a-bad-way loss to the Kings in which the team blew a 35-point lead.

But just to end on something of an upshot—and one of the most obvious reasons in regards to the players (besides Joakim, obviously) I keep coming back to the Bulls for this year—that Rose jersey is a lot more popular than I would have guessed. The kid keeps surprising me with what he can do every time I catch a game and at least one guy's already asked if his slam in the Suns game this weekend was the "Dunk of the Year?":

The Bulls' First Quarter

Yeah, so remember that nice and shiny quarter I had when talking about how the first 20 or so games had gone for the Blackhawks? Well, the United Center's other resident gets this rusty little coin to accompany my look at their first quarter, an analysis that is best done right now when most Bulls fans are wondering what the hold-up is here in firing Vinny Del Negro.

The season started with a couple of nice surprises, but after starting the year 6-4, the whole campaign now has much the same feel of the momentary joy of Brad Miller's apparent buzzer-beater—a game that was taken from them after the replay confirmed they still needed one more fraction of a second.

Since then, many fans probably would have preferred less time be put on the clock, as the margins of defeat have been getting more obscene and the Bulls have lost four in a row and nine of their last 10 to sit at 7-13. Del Negro's incompetence has been on full display as of late and now the talk is that his young players have already quit on him. The problems continue to mount and this goes beyond just an injuries cop-put when the Bulls are letting opponents tie their shoe while holding the ball or losing to a team with a 1-18 record. Apparently the only people yet to catch on to what a disaster we have on our hands are the people in the Chicago Bulls' front office. I keep waiting for the news to come that Bernie Bickerstaff will be taking over in an interim role now that the team's about to have a six-game homestand, which ESPN's John Hollinger called the "best opportunity of the season."

This team's going nowhere fast under Del Negro. I had them finishing second in the division and fifth in the conference before the season tipped off, but one-fourth of the way through, if the Bulls don't make a change with their head coach, I don't see them making the playoffs this season at all. And the longer Del Negro remains in charge, the more likely I am to come into next season with even lower expectations.

Here is to hoping, however, that the pleasantly surprising Joakim Noah and teammates can make one more writer eat his words.

2009-10 NBA Predictions

Time for a quick break in the strictly NFL posting as I throw my NBA picks out there. Unlike last year, I'll actually take the time this year to add a few comments that I can later regret and hopefully work into my awful routine of predicting playoff series. It should be fun. Well, hopefully.

My hopes aren't as high for the Bulls as they are for the Blackhawks—or hell, even the Bears for that matter. So I'm already going into this season with basically no real games jumping out at me as "can't miss that one." Still, I know that come spring, I'll be wondering what I thought I'd be getting out of this NBA season. And seeing as the Lakers are entering this year as returning champs with arguably an improved roster—and keeping in mind how I feel about the fucking Lakers—well, my attitude can best be summed up as "ANYBODY BUT L.A."

The exception to that statement, of course, is the Clippers. I'd even be OK with that.

Last year's picks were hardly very expansive. I correctly called the Lakers to come out of the Western Conference, but instead of losing in the Finals like they should have if Dwight Howard didn't pull his best Shaquille O'Neal imitation by missing two critical free throws, well, you know how that turned out. Point is, Boston didn't represent the East, so I was wrong there. As for how my predicted conference standings panned out, I went 3/15 in the East and 1/15 in the West for exact finishes, although I got six of the eight playoff teams in the East and seven of the eight in the West which makes me sound like less of a dumbass than the previous statistic would have led you to believe.

That said, this year, I'm breaking down by division first:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic
Boston Celtics

Toronto Raptors

Philadelphia 76ers

New York Knicks

New Jersey Nets

Toughest call in this division has to be deciding between the Nets and the Knicks as to who's worse. Neither team seems to have any interest in this particular season, what with New York waiting to see if LeBron will fill that enormous hole they've got in their cap and New Jersey wondering if it's time to move to Brooklyn yet.

The Celtics are easily the class of the division, once again Sports Illustrated's pick to win it all, although I've got my concerns about how healthy this team can stay. Whatever ails them during the year won't prevent them from winning here and taking one of the top spots, but the question remains as to how well they'll all be when it matters most: the playoffs.

The Sixers and the Raptors should jockey for second, although I wouldn't expect either team to fnish much better than just over .500 and less than 50 wins. I'm giving the edge to the Raptors because the addition of Hedo Turkoglu along with Chris Bosh needing a big year as he heads into that free agent class you'll be hearing about, oh, only all year, helps Toronto get more wins than a Philly squad that certainly has some promising athleticism but also seems to be overly relying an Elton Brand who's clearly seen better days and a point guard position that's going to take time (and probably losses) to figure out.

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee Bucks

The Cavaliers have nothing to prove until the playoffs, so they'll probably be playfully bitch-slapping the rest of the division all year with an occasional off-night. It would take something pretty extraordinary for Cleveland not to run away with this one.

The Bulls made some believers with their opening round loss in the playoffs—as strange as that may sound. In my mind, they essentially saved Vinny Del Negro's job and Derrick Rose should be able to take a major step forward now that Ben Gordon isn't around anymore. No, I don't know who's going to make up those points Gordon gave you, per se, but more touches for a variety of guys should do wonders. Much will depend on how Vinny handles the team and juggles the minutes, but most of the youngsters have already shown improvement.

The Pistons are a team I'm more comfortable expecting less from since they're capped-out with the roster they have—and while they've got scoring potential, I'm not expecting to hear too many people talking about solid defense or a great bench in Detroit. And I'm certainly not buying into any ideas about Ben Wallace's return being anything very meaningful. There are still some quality ballers on the Pistons and there's no reason to believe they can't make the playoffs with about a .500 record.

The Indiana Pacers can look forward to sending Danny Granger to the All-Star Game, but not much else. The Milwaukee Bucks still have Michael Redd, but how much hope can you really muster for a team that got rid of their next three top scorers?

Southeast
Orlando Magic

Atlanta Hawks

Miami Heat

Washington Wizards

Charlotte Bobcats

Again, Orlando's the popular and easy choice to win the division. Still, it's perfectly possible that four teams from the Southeast make the playoffs.

Atlanta's just as good as they were last year, which is to say they still aren't great but should be better than most clubs. The Heat are among the teams likeliest to get an entirely new look next year, but Dwayne Wade should make his usual MVP bid in helping will the team to victories and Jermaine O'Neal should perform in a contract year. And the Wizards seem to have the pieces in place to give a lot of teams real problems, although I'm not as big a believer as some but who doesn't love Flip Saunders?

Oh, and let us not forget that they did bring basketball back to Charlotte at some point, although they'll be spending most of the season trying to find somebody to score there.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest
Denver Nuggets

Portland Trailblazers

Utah Jazz

Oklahoma City Thunder

Minnesota Timberwolves
 

Probably the toughest division winner to call is in the Northwest, but I'll opt to retain my spot aboard the Denver bandwagon—you know, after arriving late for not picking the team to make the playoffs last season. Or at least I'm more comfortable with the Nuggets resembling enough of the Cinderella story they had last year than I am comfortable with the divison's other contender, the Blazers, growing up in the span of one year. I seriously question how many games Greg Oden is able to start, although the addition of Andre Miller could be the move that makes me regret putting Portland at second.

Either way, both those teams are playoff-bound, as will be the Utah Jazz. And that's more a testament to Jerry Sloan than anything, because the Jazz are hardly any different than the team they had last year which is to say that they could likely improve upon last year's eighth seed if they stay healthy, but who's your shooters on this team?

Both the Thunder and the T-Wolves are going to be consistently labeled as "too young," but both teams should have their share of highlights during the year even if neither ends up winning many games.

Southwest
San Antonio Spurs

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Hornets

Houston Rockets

Memphis Grizzlies

I've listened to so many haters tell me the Spurs were "too old" for so long now that I guess it was only a matter of time before I started to adapt that logic as my own. As is so often the case this season, my primary concern comes with San Antonio's health. I believe Richard Jefferson will indeed be a nice fit for the Spurs, although I'm not sure he'll have as significant an impact as other new faces on other teams. Still, the Spurs should be the most likely to challenge L.A.'s run at home-court during the year.

The Mavs have the same aging concerns as their interstate rivals, but lack the bench to take the Southwest. They'll get into the playoffs and likely give their first-round opponent problems.

The charming playoff run the Hornets had a few years back now feels like ages ago and while the team made some nice moves to deepen their bench, there seems to be something lacking in the backcourt to help CP3 out. He'll probably be able to carry them into the playoffs, but not much farther beyond that.

The Rockets' chances have already been trashed by injuries before the season even tipped off, but Houston's so used to that, you're almost tempted to believe that a spirited effort from T-Mac could make them a playoff team. Almost tempted.

I'm willing to go on record that the Grizzlies will finish the year with the fewest assists of any team in the NBA. They may end up getting a high draft pick too.

Pacific
Los Angeles Lakers

Phoenix Suns

Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State Warriors

Sacramento Kings

I don't see how the Lakers don't run away with the division, let alone the top spot in the conference. There's nobody here to pose a threat, as I see it—and that includes Ron Artest. Perhaps the Hollywood environment will cause him to revert to some bad old habits, but I'm not counting on it. As it stands right now, the only thing stopping the Lakers will be themselves. I don't rule out a slow start for one second, but you know that a lengthy, double-digit type of winning streak or two is only a matter of time.

The lone team I nailed in their conference spot last year was Phoenix, just missing the playoffs. Without Shaq around to slow down the Suns anymore, I think Steve Nash and a very driven Amare Stoudemire push the pace and get Phoenix back into the playoffs.

The Clippers are becoming a boutique pick to grab one of the last spots in the West, but I think they'll end up having to wait until next year—although they'll actually stay in contention until the final month or so of the season.

Both the Warriors and the Kings could be competing for the cellar of the entire Western Conference, although I think Golden State has more talent (as well as more turmoil) and should finish better than Sacramento.

Opening Round Playoffs
#1 Cavaliers over #8 Raptors in 5 games

#2 Celtics over #7 Wizards in 5 games

#3 Magic over #6 Heat in 7 games

#5 Bulls over #4 Hawks in 6 games

#1 Lakers over #8 Hornets in 6 games

#2 Spurs over #7 Suns in 5 games

#3 Nuggets over #6 Jazz in 6 games

#5 Mavericks over #4 Trailblazers in 7 games

Conference Semifinals
#1 Cavaliers over #5 Bulls in 5 games

#2 Celtics over #3 Magic in 7 games

#1 Lakers over #5 Mavericks in 5 games

#2 Spurs over #3 Nuggets in 6 games

Conference Finals
#2 Celtics over #1 Cavaliers in 6 games

#1 Lakers over #2 Spurs in 7 games

NBA Finals
Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics in 6 games