Final Thoughts on 2009 NFL Season

It's unfortunate that the final score won't really reflect what a terrific game it was, but hopefully this video's safe where you can watch the entire thing in 14 minutes. I was stepping outside and actually the rounded the corner when the bar erupted after that critical interception, and the Saints winning it really made me enjoy the game all that much more. It's satisfying to get another underdog that emerges successful on a big stage.

I realize now that this is going to be my 45th post this year about the 2009 NFL season, and that's pretty remarkable because that tag got applied to more posts in one year than the total number for how many times I've whined about jobs or girls as long as I've had this here blog up. So I'll take that as a good thing.

My regular season performance in predictions is best summed up in the final Power Rankings for the year (the same numbers that would've gone 8-3 in these playoffs, by the way), and I do indeed plan to have a post created better explaining that numbers process before next season begins. Again, all of my playoff picks were based on my gut for the most part, although you'd be forgiven for assuming I was trying to get as many wrong as possibly after missing my first six games.

And while this year's playoffs were my worst showing in as long as I've put picks up here on BMC, I'll obviously take being perfect in those last two weekends to not end up in the cellar. Only two other dudes went out on a limb with New Orleans and as a result, here's how everybody ended up (colors obviously reflective of winning/losing Super Bowl Pick):

Super Bowl XLIV Pick: At least it sounds good

I did a bit of looking back before beginning this post, and it nearly led to me beginning a MySpace blog entry but then I came to my senses and remembered how aggravating that process could be. Previous Super Bowl picks made here on BMC have usually been kept brief because of the girl I was with at the time, but it'll nice being single again for the big game this year—although the last year that happened, I still did get a prediction of sorts out there and then I basically wasn't single again.

But anyway, there's a game once again this year and I'm genuinely pretty pumped up about watching it. While one team is certainly a favorite here, the fact that the two best teams from the entire year and the top seeds in their conferences are in the biggest game works out pretty well for the NFL.

Looking back on how both the Colts and the Saints did for me during the year in the Confidence Pools, you'll notice the teams finished right next to one another to round out my Top 10 point-earning squads on the year. Considering they were both undefeated for a majority of the season, it's hardly surprising they finished in that bracket.

But a closer look at those numbers shows that the only way both teams earned me points this year was with victories. I never once correctly predicted a loss for either of these clubs, even if both of the records I ended up having predicted for Indianapolis and New Orleans were exactly right.

So, it sounds like I'm kinda fucked either way here. Which goes back to the girl thing, I guess. Or maybe I should just get on to how everybody else is doing—in these playoffs, I mean:

Conference Championship Picks: A Matter Of Trust

So I went back and did the little thing I do with red/green post-result-type-thing-a-madoo-hickey-bobber-ska-rinsky-poo on my NFL predictions (and, hey, "as long as I'm at it," last season's MLB picks too), and just to be clear, let me highlight how I did at predicting these playoffs at the beginning of the season:

Divisional Playoff Picks: Nobody's Perfect

One thing I started doing this season that I am utterly baffled as to why I wasn't doing last season was tracking how I actually did at picking a team correctly. Now, obviously the teams that win or lose only a couple of games a year are fairly safe bets. The St. Louis Rams, for instance, were picked by me to lose every single week of this year and last. Because they only won one game this year, that means I was 15-1 picking their record straight-up.

Of course, now that we're in the divisional playoffs, a good majority of my best teams are gone. Basically, three teams that have gave me the most difficulty got into the postseason—and two are playing this weekend.

But here's how I did at predicting the records of all 32 teams this year (playoff teams in bold):

St. Louis Rams 15-1
Detroit Lions 14-2
San Diego Chargers 14-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13-3
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Washington Redskins 13-3
Atlanta Falcons 13-3
Cleveland Browns 12-4
Indianapolis Colts 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (12-5)
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 (12-5)
Minnesota Vikings 11-5
Kansas City Chiefs 11-5
Tennessee Titans 11-5
Buffalo Bills 11-5
Oakland Raiders 11-5
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Baltimore Ravens 10-6 (10-7)
San Francisco 49ers 10-6
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (10-7)
Miami Dolphins 10-6
Houston Texans 10-6
New England Patriots 9-7 (9-8)
Chicago Bears 9-7
Carolina Panthers 9-7
New York Giants 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
New York Jets 8-8 (8-9)
Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8
Denver Broncos 8-8
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9 (7-10)
Arizona Cardinals 7-9 (7-10)

I think you see what I did. It would have been nice to have had some green there, and you would think that I would've managed to get at least one of the four games right, but no sir—serves me right for having the same picks as Ron Jaworski, I suppose.

But I take comfort that at least after one week of the playoffs, we already know nobody will be able to say they got every game right. Here's how everybody's first round went:

1. Eric Allen, ESPN: 3-1
1. Jason Cole, Yahoo: 3-1
1. Michael Silver, Yahoo: 3-1
1. LEV, crazy colored glasses: 3-1
5. Mike Golic, ESPN: 2-2
5. Merrill Hoge, ESPN: 2-2
5. Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 2-2
5. Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 2-2
5. Charles Robinson, Yahoo: 2-2
5. Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 2-2
5. Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 2-2
5. Wunderdog: 2-2
13. James C. Black, Yahoo: 1-3
13. Brian Burke, The Fifth Down: 1-3
13. Pro Football Weekly Editors: 1-3
13. Adam Schefter, ESPN: 1-3
17.Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 0-4
17. YOURS TRULY: 0-4

Yeah, I don't really know what to say about my own showing. Let's put it this way: I need to be perfect the rest of the way to beat last year's performance.

Everybody's got kind of the same picks this week for the most part, but let's pretend like this'll be suspenseful. I'll see you at the end of the scroll:

Jason Cole, Yahoo
Charles Robinson, Yahoo
James C. Black, Yahoo
Michael Silver, Yahoo
Pro Football Weekly Editors
Wunderdog
Eric Allen, ESPN
Mike Golic, ESPN
Merrill Hoge, ESPN
Ron Jaworski, ESPN
Chris Mortensen, ESPN
Adam Schefter, ESPN
Mark Schlereth, ESPN
Seth Wickersham, ESPN
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Brian Burke, The Fifth Down
LEV, crazy colored glasses

I'm still waiting on bro-in-law, but I'm sure it'll dawn on him shortly after I post this. As for my own picks? Well, what fun would it be to play it safe at this point, right? (Oh, I'm ditching the regular season records I had included last week, although I am still keeping the Power Ranking data—even though I'm kind of ignoring whatever it says.)

These are all supposed to be descending order of confidence, but really the first pick is the only one I'd put money on (if I did that sort of thing):

San Diego Chargers over New York Jets
+104/+7 : +95/78/+17 : +10/-9

There's a reason that nobody's picking the Jets this week—and it ain't just the Jets not being one of the better teams left. The Bolts haven't come into the playoffs with this kind of hype in quite some time, and while you have to wonder if the team's ever going to miss a beat after rattling off 11 straight wins, they're probably my sentimental favorite right now of the eight teams left. Of any team I'd like to see win it all, if I had to pick one, I'd vote for the Chargers because they really have felt like the best team in football for most of the year anyway.

Arizona Cardinals over New Orleans Saints
+28/-27 : +21/41/+62 : +85/-7

I guess that last year, Arizona technically avoided the No. 1 seed, but the whole scenario seems familiar and the Buzzsaw is finally getting a vote from me. I view it as a "can't lose" sort of situation because even if I'm wrong, at least I won't have them screwing with me next week. But if you're seeking legitimate logic here, then all I can tell you is that Kurt Warner has been playing out of his mind and I can't help but wonder if Drew Brees and the Saints don't take a drive too long to catch up.

Minnesota Vikings over Dallas Cowboys
+67/-4 : +63/6/+57 : +61/-4

Dallas is in an unmistakable groove ever since ending the perfect run of the Saints in New Orleans, but beyond the fans inside the Metrodome is still a very good Vikings team that doesn't really seem to fuck around too much when they play there. So I'm tempted to believe that the big performance they keep saying they'll need from Adrian Peterson is something they're going to get. I'm all for a good, low-scoring defensive struggle, and I'm preferring to think of this as another "can't lose" for me because I'll be happy to know that at least one of these two teams won't win at all. Next week it can be the other one, I hope.

Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts
+67/+4 : +63/24/+87 : +83/-4

We didn't do a playoff pool this year, but just because I'm remembering how fun it was last time, I'll take probably my biggest upset pick this week. I see the Ravens coming in with nothing to lose and the Colts dealing with more pressure than any other host team this weekend, mostly because of all the hoopla that came out of Jim Caldwell's decision to rest his starters for the playoffs. If I'm right, then the entire thing will be debated all through the off-season for Indy.