Showing posts with label NFL 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL 2008. Show all posts

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Here, there, everywhere

See, there's going to be a day when I actually get to sit down and organize all these silly little things I feel I'm somewhat obligated to update every single time I sit down at the computer. But these days, I'm once again in my "job first" mentality. I know, I know ... "But D. Rock, looking for a bigger job seems like something you've always been doing and always will be doing for the rest of your life. Thanks for finally coming to that realization and welcome to the club."

So anywho, I'm taking about five minutes out here before I go back to craigslist and where ever else it is that my whimsy fances tonight. Wish me luck, but in the meantime, here's a few short thoughts ... let me know what to elaborate on:

  • The Oscars are next Sunday. I still have not seen any of the five films nominated for Best Picture, and what's more, I have no real rooting interest in the show. The best film I saw last year was Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and I'm pretty sure that's not up for anything. That said, I didn't even request the evening off work and I typically close on Sunday nights, so I'm guessing that I'm just going to be hoping that people put the best clips from the actual show online. I don't hear about anybody doing any pools this year either, so it's not sounding like too many friends are planning on a party this year (which actually has seemingly been the story ever since the show got moved up a month). All in all, I'll throw up my predictions, for whatever they're worth, just to say I did, but in all honesty, really haven't had less interest in the broadcast in as long as I can remember. Perhaps if they raise Heth Ledger from the dead to accept his Best Supporting Actor award ...
  • I believe my final score for playoff predictions with my technically correct pick of the Steelers ("I'm sorry, you said something about somebody getting 'killed,' did you?"), I went 6-5, which is acceptable and somewhat amazingly only one game worse than last year's record. I didn't have time to go back yet and see what I wrote about Pittsburgh all year, but I'm planning on looking over what I'd been writing every week this season when football previews start coming out in anticipation of next season. I haven't adjusted yet to not having football, but I usually tend to get swept up in March Madness before fully engulfing my fascination with the NBA and NHL Playoffs going into the summer. This year should prove no different, although I promised myself I'd be writing more about my boys in the U.C., and, well ...
  • As far as the Blackhawks go, I've been feeling pretty good about the team most of the year and I've caught far, far more of their games this year than I did at this point last season. I feel fairly confident that they will indeed make the playoffs and beyond that, have the talent to defeat their first-round opponent. And while it feels good to be boasting about having such a legitimitely good young core that lives up to what's been hyped, there's just no denying that the veteran squads, the more playoff-experienced teams, will probably capitalize on Blackhawks mistakes—errors, I'm guessing, that will get attributed to their youth.
  • The Bulls, on the other hand, have been something of a chore to watch. With the trade deadline approaching, I don't see how you don't say every guy's on the table—except Derrick Rose. And I really don't know how long Vinny truly gets to stick around if something doesn't get accomplished before then. But the newest Bulls trade rumor (these are the types of things we Bulls fans get to constantly participate in and fantasize over ever since the Jordan era ended) involves acquiring Amare Stoudemire from the Phoenix Suns. Needless to say, this move gets an enthusiastic "Hell, Yes!" vote from me (the Bulls would have to part with Drew Gooden, Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefolosha, maybe a draft pick or two, possibly Joakim Noah, some guy named Cedric Simmons that I don't even recall ever seeing printed on a Bulls roster this year and probably some money too). Look, the Bulls can probably get in the playoffs this year, but even with a fun, little quick fix like Stoudemire playing with Rose, this team's a million miles from contending for anything. It's still stunning that we were talking about winning the Eastern Conference here a few seasons back, because it hasn't felt like a winning team any time I've turned the Bulls on this season. It's actually kind of heartbreaking.
  • And speaking of heartbreak, let me end on this final thought about the only thing that will always, most surely be the one thing more fucked up than my job satisfaction: The lady didn't take too kindly to me having lunch with XgF—or whatever the hell I called her. It was nothing too dramatic, of course, unless you count the fact that that girl even talked to me again. It certainly was fucked up, I tried to explain to the current lady—the one I still only see once a week and seemingly talk about breaking up with every other week or so—that the ex and I hadn't really spoken in a couple of years. And considering all that happened in just the past year alone, well, that's the kind of stuff that, yeah, I guess I could e-mail her about. Or maybe point to a few blog post or something, had I actually typed up some of the trouble I had gotten in, but for the most part I was too scared shitless to even type up how scared I was at the time. But that time's gone now and everything's better ... or getting better, I guess. Still getting organized, cleaning things up.
  • OK, lots to do tomorrow.

Sunday, February 01, 2009

Super Bowl Pick

It's a long story (maybe I'll tell you later ... maybe), but I'm trying to hammer this out from a laptop in scenic DeKalb, IL. Anyway, my otherwise solid season of NFL predicting now concludes with one final game that will determine whether I finish above .500 or not for the post-season.

That said, I'm playing it safe:


Pittsburgh Steelers over Arizona Cardinals

Yeah, I think the Buzzsaw's going to get killed actually. We're talking two touchdown-like margin. But hopefully it turns out to be a close, exciting game instead.

Whatever ... even putting this helmet in here is a pain in the ass. Final thoughts on the NFL season forthcoming ... maybe.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Conference Championship Picks

I went 3-1 last week, among the many who simply didn't give the Buzzsaw that is the Arizona Cardinals their proper credit, apparently. At 5-3 so far this post-season, I'll need to get all three remaining games correct if I'm to improve on last year's 7-4 record for playoff predictions. Among the crowd at Yahoo! and ESPN, I'm in a five-way tie for second place with Mike Golic, of all people, leading the pack. Sorry if that sort of bothers me, but Golic finished at the bottom with Seth Wickersham in the regular season, so his resurgence is somewhat stunning. Still, it is a difference of one game and these are the playoffs we're talking about, so chances are that when all is said and done, most of the records for these "experts" is going to be pretty close—unless, of course, you're talking about poor David Fleming, who has now guaranteed he will finish below .500 in his own predictions. Chump.

Anyway, here's a look at how everyone has performed so far this post-season (last week's record in parentheses) and what their Super Bowl predictions are heading into this weekend:

Mike Golic, ESPN: 6-2 (3-1)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)
YOURS TRULY: 5-3 (3-1)
ESPN Accuscore: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)

Eric Allen, ESPN: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)

Jason Cole, Yahoo!: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)

Charles Robinson, Yahoo!: 5-3 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Baltimore)

James C. Black, Yahoo!: 4-4 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Baltimore)

Ron Jaworski, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)

Chris Mortensen, ESPN: 4-4 (1-3)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)

Mark Schlereth, ESPN: 4-4 (2-2)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)

Michael Silver, Yahoo!: 4-4 (2-2)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)

Seth Wickersham, ESPN: 4-4 (1-3)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)

Merril Hoge, ESPN: 3-5 (1-3)
(Arizona-Pittsburgh)

David Fleming, ESPN: 2-6 (1-3)
(Philadelphia-Pittsburgh)


So nobody has a Super Bowl without a team from Pennsylvania? Yep, looks like that's the case, because my own predictions go like this:

Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals

I have placed whichever team is playing the Buzzsaw as my most confident pick each of the past two weeks, and trust me, I'm hoping that I end up being wrong here. I'd love to see the Cardinals go to the Super Bowl and avoid the city of Philadelphia winning another world championship so soon. Still, the Eagles have been rolling and won't be phased by one more road game.


Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers

Hey, did you hear Baltimore's banged up? And their quarterback is a rookie? And so on.

But the Ravens wanted this matchup ever since they got screwed out of the division title. I'd actually be more nervous about their chances if it were any other team, but Baltimore's pulling this off.

Friday, January 09, 2009

Divisional Playoff Picks

From my end, Atlanta was sort of a shocking disappointment last weekend. In retrospect, it was both of my higher confidence games that were wrong, but it's just too hard for me to take the Cardinals seriously and most everyone had the Colts winning that game last week.

Still, here's a look at how everyone else did last week:


And here's how I've got this weekend breaking down:


Carolina Panthers over Arizona Cardinals

Last week, the Cardinals got the benefit of a home crowd that I hadn't really anticipated being a factor against Atlanta, another dome team.

Carolina's a much tougher team than the Falcons and is probably already looking forward to another shot at the Giants in New York for the NFC Championship.

Pittsburgh Steelers over San Diego Chargers

The NFL is dying for a Giants-Steelers Super Bowl; it would be a cash cow.

The Chargers could indeed be a team peaking at the right time. But I think the Steelers can overcome any problems with Big Ben and shut down the Chargers in Pittsbugh.

Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans

As I mentioned recently, the Ravens officially became "my boys" last Friday night. It really was quite a hoot, because last time we did one of these lottery pools, I got whatever was left and for the NBA Playoffs, I landed the Wizards. Yuck.

But this time around, I feel quite differently. Derrick Mason would relish the chance to have a big game.

Philadelphia Eagles over New York Giants

I kept going back and forth over this, but this actually seems like the way I can see the Giants going out this year. They looked unstoppable for so much of the year and can certainly still be formidable without Plaxico, but I'll stand by what I said earlier this week and go with Philly simply because they're the hotter team right now.

Friday, January 02, 2009

Wild Card Picks

I'll be citing the picks of the experts at Yahoo! and ESPN that I compared myself to during the regular season. This being the playoffs, I'm presenting my picks in descending order of confidence, as I did last year. I'm not assigning some silly point value or anything in the post-season, just doing a simple, straight-up right/wrong count, so the order doesn't really do anything other than allow me to try and point out I wasn't totally confident in a prediction should I be wrong.

Sort of.

Anyway, here's the four games this weekend:


Atlanta Falcons over Arizona Cardinals
I'll stand by my earlier assertion that the Falcons are the losers in the NFC Championship. I know it's kind of a silly little spot to see them ending up, but I've been dismissing the Cards all year, seeing as how worthless the NFC West is. I'm not terribly confident about how the Falcons' defense will slow down Arizona, but they've managed to keep opponents low on the scoring all year. If they can hold the Cardinals to field goals while establishing their very capable running game, they should be well on their way to a convincing victory.

Indianapolis Colts over San Diego Chargers
San Diego's pass defense is second-to-last in the league, and the Colts are going to have to rely on a big game from Peyton. And I'll take relying on a big game from Manning over relying on a big game from LT, who has only recently regained some semblance of the back he's been hyped as.



Philadelphia Eagles over Minnesota Vikings
I've got a hard time trusting Philly (I mean, c'mon ... they tied Cincinnati), but one interception aside, Donovan McNabb hasn't erred ever since he was benched. The Eagles, as a team, looked impressive against Dallas, while you already have to be speculating about whether Minnesota sticks to one quarterback for the entire game.


Baltimore Ravens over Miami Dolphins
I'll probably still be sporting the Ricky Williams jersey on Sunday, but Ray Lewis has been unbelievable this season and the Ravens defense would be getting a lot more hype if the equally stellar squad in Pittsburgh hadn't won the division. It's not unreasonable to think Baltimore could make it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Final NFL Power Rankings

I went 10-6 in the final week, which was good for 95 points and helped me finish in a tie for second place in the final standings with a total of 1445. Overall, here's how my numbers matched up with the experts at Yahoo! and ESPN (NOTE: Yahoo! did not count the Cincinnati-Philadelphia tie against their experts, which is why the total games for their three guys is different ... basically, you should add another loss on for them):


So, my first year of keeping track of this stuff, it was a pretty delightful little experience. Don't ask me how I ended up picking Detroit to win FIVE times this season, but overall, I'm fairly satisfied with how things went.

Oh, sure; I will re-examine how I did this all season and tinker with a few things to make things easier for me and more enjoyable or insightful for you. Until then, it was a fun season and I'll continue on with playoff picks in the coming weeks. For now, here's the final numbers for the year and I'm thrilled that only one team ended up costing me more points than they earned me. I've limited myself to a single-word description of the team that I feel captures how they performed this season:

1. (1) DETROIT LIONS
  • Last week: Lost to Green Bay, 31-21 (-1)
  • Actual Record: 0-16
  • My predicted record: 5-11
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 164
  • Points taken from me with wins: 0
  • Points taken from me with losses: 13
  • Plus/Minus: +151
  • One word:
2. (2) ST. LOUIS RAMS
  • Last week: Lost to Atlanta, 31-27 (+16)
  • Actual Record: 2-14
  • My predicted record: 0-16
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 165
  • Points taken from me with wins: 22
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +143
  • One word:
3. (4) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
  • Last week: Beat Tennessee, 23-0 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 12-4
  • My predicted record: 14-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 115
  • Points scored for me with losses: 3
  • Points taken from me with wins: 6
  • Points taken from me with losses: 12
  • Plus/Minus: +100
  • One word:
4. (7) BALTIMORE RAVENS
  • Last week: Beat Jacksonville, 27-7 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 11-5
  • My predicted record: 9-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 79
  • Points scored for me with losses: 30
  • Points taken from me with wins: 16
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: +89
  • One word:
4. (3) NEW YORK GIANTS
  • Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 20-19 (-13)
  • Actual Record: 12-4
  • My predicted record: 14-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 139
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 5
  • Points taken from me with losses: 45
  • Plus/Minus: +89
  • One word:
6. (7) ARIZONA CARDINALS
  • Last week: Beat Seattle, 34-21 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 9-7
  • My predicted record: 7-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 60
  • Points scored for me with losses: 49
  • Points taken from me with wins: 18
  • Points taken from me with losses: 3
  • Plus/Minus: +88
  • One word:
7. (10) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
  • Last week: Beat Cleveland, 31-0 (+15)
  • Actual Record: 12-4
  • My predicted record: 14-2
  • Points scored for me with wins: 94
  • Points scored for me with losses: 0
  • Points taken from me with wins: 8
  • Points taken from me with losses: 14
  • Plus/Minus: +72
  • One word:
7. (5) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
  • Last week: Beat Washington, 27-24 (-5)
  • Actual Record: 7-9
  • My predicted record: 4-12
  • Points scored for me with wins: 33
  • Points scored for me with losses: 80
  • Points taken from me with wins: 31
  • Points taken from me with losses: 10
  • Plus/Minus: +72
  • One word:
9. (9) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
  • Last week: Lost to Cincinnati, 16-6 (+4)
  • Actual Record: 2-14
  • My predicted record: 3-13
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 103
  • Points taken from me with wins: 17
  • Points taken from me with losses: 15
  • Plus/Minus: +71
  • One word:
10. (10) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
  • Last week: Lost to Arizona, 34-21 (+11)
  • Actual Record: 4-12
  • My predicted record: 5-11
  • Points scored for me with wins: 17
  • Points scored for me with losses: 88
  • Points taken from me with wins: 24
  • Points taken from me with losses: 13
  • Plus/Minus: +68
  • One word:
11. (12) CAROLINA PANTHERS
  • Last week: Beat New Orleans, 33-31 (+10)
  • Actual Record: 12-4
  • My predicted record: 12-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 90
  • Points scored for me with losses: 4
  • Points taken from me with wins: 11
  • Points taken from me with losses: 19
  • Plus/Minus: +64
  • One word:
12. (14) MIAMI DOLPHINS
  • Last week: Beat New York Jets, 24-17 (+8)
  • Actual Record: 11-5
  • My predicted record: 9-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 73
  • Points scored for me with losses: 27
  • Points taken from me with wins: 32
  • Points taken from me with losses: 8
  • Plus/Minus: +60
  • One word:
13. (16) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
  • Last week: Beat Buffalo, 13-0 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 11-5
  • My predicted record: 12-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 76
  • Points scored for me with losses: 11
  • Points taken from me with wins: 7
  • Points taken from me with losses: 22
  • Plus/Minus: +58
  • One word:
14. (18) CLEVELAND BROWNS
  • Last week: Lost to Pittsburgh, 31-0 (+15)
  • Actual Record: 4-12
  • My predicted record: 4-12
  • Points scored for me with wins: 3
  • Points scored for me with losses: 91
  • Points taken from me with wins: 21
  • Points taken from me with losses: 16
  • Plus/Minus: +57
  • One word:
15. (8) MINNESOTA VIKINGS
  • Last week: Beat New York Giants, 20-19 (-13)
  • Actual Record: 10-6
  • My predicted record: 7-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 48
  • Points scored for me with losses: 36
  • Points taken from me with wins: 29
  • Points taken from me with losses: 0
  • Plus/Minus: +55
  • One word:
16. (16) CINCINNATI BENGALS
  • Last week: Beat Kansas City, 16-6 (+4)
  • Actual Record: 4-11-1
  • My predicted record: 4-12
  • Points scored for me with wins: 5
  • Points scored for me with losses: 106
  • Points taken from me with wins/ties: 38
  • Points taken from me with losses: 20
  • Plus/Minus: +53
  • One word:
17. (14) HOUSTON TEXANS
  • Last week: Beat Chicago, 31-24 (-7)
  • Actual Record: 8-8
  • My predicted record: 7-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 33
  • Points scored for me with losses: 48
  • Points taken from me with wins: 21
  • Points taken from me with losses: 15
  • Plus/Minus: +45
  • One word:
18. (23) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
  • Last week: Lost to Carolina, 33-31 (+10)
  • Actual Record: 8-8
  • My predicted record: 6-10
  • Points scored for me with wins: 35
  • Points scored for me with losses: 34
  • Points taken from me with wins: 10
  • Points taken from me with losses: 17
  • Plus/Minus: +42
  • One word:
18. (12) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
  • Last week: Lost to Oakland, 31-24 (-12)
  • Actual Record: 9-7
  • My predicted record: 11-5
  • Points scored for me with wins: 61
  • Points scored for me with losses: 23
  • Points taken from me with wins: 9
  • Points taken from me with losses: 33
  • Plus/Minus: +42
  • One word:
20. (20) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
  • Last week: Beat Denver, 52-21 (+2)
  • Actual Record: 8-8
  • My predicted record: 8-8
  • Points scored for me with wins: 36
  • Points scored for me with losses: 26
  • Points taken from me with wins: 12
  • Points taken from me with losses: 14
  • Plus/Minus: +36
  • One word:
20. (24) TENNESSEE TITANS
  • Last week: Lost to Indianapolis, 23-0 (+6)
  • Actual Record: 13-3
  • My predicted record: 8-8
  • Points scored for me with wins: 71
  • Points scored for me with losses: 6
  • Points taken from me with wins: 23
  • Points taken from me with losses: 18
  • Plus/Minus: +36
  • One word:
22. (21) DALLAS COWBOYS
  • Last week: Lost to Philadelphia, 44-6 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 9-7
  • My predicted record: 10-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 56
  • Points scored for me with losses: 27
  • Points taken from me with wins: 20
  • Points taken from me with losses: 33
  • Plus/Minus: +30
  • One word:
22. (18) OAKLAND RAIDERS
  • Last week: Beat Tampa Bay, 31-24 (-12)
  • Actual Record: 5-11
  • My predicted record: 1-15
  • Points scored for me with wins: 0
  • Points scored for me with losses: 96
  • Points taken from me with wins: 62
  • Points taken from me with losses: 4
  • Plus/Minus: +30
  • One word:
22. (21) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
  • Last week: Beat Dallas, 44-6 (-3)
  • Actual Record: 9-6-1
  • My predicted record: 7-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 49
  • Points scored for me with losses: 28
  • Points taken from me with wins: 21
  • Points taken from me with losses/ties: 26
  • Plus/Minus: +30
  • One word:
25. (24) CHICAGO BEARS
  • Last week: Lost to Houston, 31-24 (-7)
  • Actual Record: 9-7
  • My predicted record: 13-3
  • Points scored for me with wins: 49
  • Points scored for me with losses: 12
  • Points taken from me with wins: 1
  • Points taken from me with losses: 37
  • Plus/Minus: +23
  • One word:
26. (26) GREEN BAY PACKERS
  • Last week: Beat Detroit, 31-21 (-1)
  • Actual Record: 6-10
  • My predicted record: 8-8
  • Points scored for me with wins: 15
  • Points scored for me with losses: 35
  • Points taken from me with wins: 14
  • Points taken from me with losses: 16
  • Plus/Minus: +20
  • One word:
26. (28) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
  • Last week: Lost to Baltimore, 27-7 (+14)
  • Actual Record: 5-11
  • My predicted record: 5-11
  • Points scored for me with wins: 3
  • Points scored for me with losses: 55
  • Points taken from me with wins: 17
  • Points taken from me with losses: 21
  • Plus/Minus: +20
  • One word:
28. (29) NEW YORK JETS
  • Last week: Lost to Miami, 24-17 (+8)
  • Actual Record: 9-7
  • My predicted record: 10-6
  • Points scored for me with wins: 61
  • Points scored for me with losses: 13
  • Points taken from me with wins: 17
  • Points taken from me with losses: 46
  • Plus/Minus: +11
  • One word:
29. (31) ATLANTA FALCONS
  • Last week: Beat St. Louis, 31-27 (+16)
  • Actual Record: 11-5
  • My predicted record: 8-8
  • Points scored for me with wins: 43
  • Points scored for me with losses: 19
  • Points taken from me with wins: 37
  • Points taken from me with losses: 16
  • Plus/Minus: +9
  • One word:
30. (27) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
  • Last week: Lost to San Francisco, 27-24 (-5)
  • Actual Record: 8-8
  • My predicted record: 9-7
  • Points scored for me with wins: 37
  • Points scored for me with losses: 41
  • Points taken from me with wins: 31
  • Points taken from me with losses: 39
  • Plus/Minus: +8
  • One word:
31. (30) BUFFALO BILLS
  • Last week: Lost to New England, 13-0 (+9)
  • Actual Record: 7-9
  • My predicted record: 7-9
  • Points scored for me with wins: 28
  • Points scored for me with losses: 25
  • Points taken from me with wins: 21
  • Points taken from me with losses: 29
  • Plus/Minus: +3
  • One word:
32. (32) DENVER BRONCOS
  • Last week: Lost to San Diego, 52-21 (+2)
  • Actual Record: 8-8
  • My predicted record: 12-4
  • Points scored for me with wins: 35
  • Points scored for me with losses: 11
  • Points taken from me with wins: 19
  • Points taken from me with losses: 43
  • Plus/Minus: -16
  • One word:

How each game broke down for me by their point value:

16-point games: 9-0

15-point games: 7-3
14-point games: 13-3
13-point games: 12-5
12-point games: 12-5
11-point games: 13-4
10-point games: 13-4
9-point games: 11-6
8-point games: 10-7
7-point games: 11-6
6-point games: 10-7
5-point games: 6-11
4-point games: 10-7
3-point games: 9-8
2-point games: 10-7
1-point games: 8-9

And how the finish would have gone had they done what I said:

AFC
East
New England Patriots 12-4 (11-5)
New York Jets 10-6 (9-7)
Miami Dolphins 9-7 (11-5)
Buffalo Bills 7-9 (7-9)

North
Pittsburgh Steelers 14-2 (12-4)
Baltimore Ravens 9-7 (11-5)
Cleveland Browns 4-12 (4-12)
Cincinatti Bengals 4-12 (4-11-1)

South
Indianapolis Colts 14-2 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 8-8 (13-3)
Houston Texans 7-9 (8-8)
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 (5-11)

West
Denver Broncos 12-4 (8-8)
San Diego Chargers 8-8 (8-8)
Kansas City Chiefs 3-13 (2-14)
Oakland Raiders 1-15 (5-11)

NFC
East
New York Giants 14-2 (12-4)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 9-7 (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9 (9-6-1)

North
Chicago Bears 13-3 (9-7)
Green Bay Packers 8-8 (6-10)
Minnesota Vikings 7-9 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 5-11 (0-16)

South
Carolina Panthers 12-4 (12-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5 (9-7)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (11-5)
New Orleans Saints 6-10 (8-8)

West
Arizona Cardinals 7-9 (9-7)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (4-12)
San Francisco 49ers 4-12 (7-9)
St. Louis Rams 0-16 (2-14)

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Week 17 Picks

I'm really rather speechless that this is the final week of what has been a pretty enjoyable season. As I said earlier, there's eight points separating me, in second place, from the fellow in fourth. I'm trying to be optimistic that at least I'm not playing catch-up in the final week, but a lead that small can certainly be made up in a single weekend. That would figure to by my luck, so I had to crunch my numbers first before I did anything this weekend.

I went back and looked at last week's numbers and realized that had I gone with the numbers as they originally said to go, I would have earned 80 points as opposed to the 69 I got instead.

So, when only one game came up with a different winner than I would have predicted, I changed that game and that game only and moved it to the bottom of my sheet. The rest I left as is, although I'm already groaning about how confident I really feel about some of what's about to follow.

But then I remembered that the one week I ended up in first place was the week I didn't make any changes. And I'm pinning my final hopes on my little formula that got me back into this race and hopefully makes enough impact this week to push me into first (which isn't real likely):

16 points
Atlanta Falcons (10-5) over St. Louis Rams (2-13)
+11/-18 : +138/156/-18 : 0/+127

Congratulations to the fine team in St. Louis for going the entire season without compelling me to pick them even one time this year. Well done.

15 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) over Cleveland Browns (4-11)
+65/-8 : +120/141/-21 : -13/+55

I won't be surprised at all if Cleveland ends up giving Pittsburgh a scare, but the Steelers really need to get one more "W" after last week's loss to the now top-seeded Titans.

14 points
Baltimore Ravens (10-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10)
+61/+14 : +85/89/-4 : -18/+24

Third straight home team, which inspires a considerable bit more ease than last week, when I had six road teams highest on my list.

13 points
New York Giants (12-3) over Minnesota Vikings (9-6)
+107/-5 : +127/84/+43 : +48/+20

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now and while it initially seems like a game ripe for low bets across the board, I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is—metaphorically speaking, of course.

12 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) over Oakland Raiders (4-11)
+40/+14 : +86/76/+10 : -4/+46

Last week had to be a fluke. And there's no way John Gruden misses the playoffs because of a loss to his former employer. Not in Tampa, at least.

11 points
Arizona Cardinals (8-7) over Seattle Seahawks (4-11)
+46/+31 : +99/64/+35 : +4/+46

Yes, I realize I've been a huge critic of Arizona for most of the year, so having them so high in the final week against the division rival that just knocked off the Jets is a bit discomforting. But the Cardinals have just gotten their asses kicked for two straight weeks and absolutely must have this game if they're going to have even a prayer of competing once the playoffs begin.

10 points
Carolina Panthers
(11-4) over New Orleans Saints (8-7)
+61/-7 : +75/64/+11 : +18/+14

If the Panthers had the division sewn up like I had thought they did, I might have placed this lower or even gone the other way. But the game's huge for Carolina because a loss here very well equates to another win they'll need to get without the week off they'd been expecting.

9 points
New England Patriots (10-5) over Buffalo Bills (7-8)
+45/+4 : +40/37/+3 : -1/-5

Bills are always a nuisance at home, but the Pats know they've still realistically got a very good shot at winning the division. However ...

8 points
Miami Dolphins (10-5) over New York Jets (9-6)
+57/-5 : +45/35/+10 : +15/-12

... I've been saying the Dolphins would come in and steal this game for a few weeks now.

I'm not changing my mind. Hell, the numbers support it.

7 points
Chicago Bears (8-6) over Green Bay Packers (5-9)
+19/+11 : +53/24/+29 : +18/+34

Second straight week in the seven spot for the Bears, who delivered last week—although hardly in a comforting fashion.

6 points
Indianapolis Colts (11-4) over Tennessee Titans (13-2)
+97/-3 : +74/24/+50 : +53/-23

The Colts seem to have gotten acquainted in their new home after they dropped the first two opening the new stadium. Since then, they're 5-0 at home and they've won eight in a row overall. A win this week against top-seeded Tennessee and they'll be among the favorites to win it all.

5 points
Washington Redskins
(8-7) over San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
+3/+10 : +57/24/+33 : +23/+54

Ugh ... two teams with nothing to really play for. Redskins have a way of winning games they had no business showing up for.

4 points
Cincinnati Bengals (3-11-1) over Kansas City Chiefs (2-13)
-19/+68 : +63/10/+53 : -15/+82

And what are you foreseeing as the paid attendance for this imminent classic?

Two thousand?

Two hundred?

Two?


3 points
Dallas Cowboys (9-6) over Philadelphia Eagles (8-6-1)
+26/+7 : +36/6/+30 : +23/+10

And you have to believe the NFL was also counting on Dallas to go far in the playoffs this season. I still see them getting in, one way or another.

2 points
San Diego Chargers (7-8) over Denver Broncos (8-7)
+20/+14 : +10/4/+6 : -8/-10

It's just too appropriate.

1 point
Detroit Lions (0-15) over Green Bay Packers (5-10)
-12/+164 : +10/153/+163 : -1/+22

Play it one last time, MoTown.