Round One NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Predictions: No Shortened Path Here

When the NHL lockout finally ended, this was the moment that I was perhaps most looking forward to, the one I would have missed the most had the season been lost. While I have been sort of half-viewing portions of the NBA Playoffs thus far, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are an entirely different beast this time of year. I cannot turn away from any game on television—even those not involving the beloved Blackhawks. Indeed, over the coming days, I am hoping to stay up until the wee hours of the morning to watch multiple-overtime contests. Even if there is no late-night hockey, some regular prime time or weekend afternoon playoff hockey should be every bit as satisfying.

In years way past, I used to be pretty good at the predicting business when it came to the NHL Playoffs, but my performance has left a lot to be desired for the last couple years. I will hope to post a more successful record this year, but more than anything, I am ultimately just hoping for a certain outcome.

The Blackhawks' Fourth Quarter: No complaints (... yet)

You know, way back like 100 days ago when I made my original predictions for this NHL season, I said that this year's Stanley Cup winner would be the first team in five years to also win the Presidents' Cup for the most regular season points. Of course, I was talking about the St. Louis Blues, but I'm sure going to hope I was right about that other part now that the Hawks went and secured not only the best record in their division and in the conference, but the entire league as well. So, pressure's on. 

This final graphic of the regular season contains the team picture from the 1990-91 season the Blackhawks last brought home a Presidents' Trophy. Lest you forget, the Chicago team that year was immediately shown the door by a Minnesota North Stars team that went on to lose that year's Stanley Cup to Pittsburgh. This year, the Blackhawks will open the playoffs with Minnesota's newest hockey incarnation, the Wild, and the Penguins are once again favorites in the East. Considering that three of the last four year's Presidents' Trophy winners have been first round exits, there's some mild concern coming from these bad memories.

That nonsense is just damn silly though. Count your fucking blessings, I say, that Chicago is meeting a Minnesota team that stumbled in to the postseason and just barely qualified ahead of a Columbus Blue Jackets team that is nothing like the wretched versions of years past. As it turns out, I think this year's Western Conference playoff picture shapes up very much in the Hawks' favor and there was very, very little during this 48-game season that would lead me to believe any other team in the league can win a seven-game series against them. I know the Hawks never played an Eastern Conference opponent this regular season, but that's not really all that concerning. Sorry.

Round One NBA Playoff Predictions: With Comments!

I apologize that this year's first round picks are pretty much the exact same picks I had last year, but my feelings throughout these playoffs are likely to be the same for as long as LeBron James is playing in Miami. Once again, the Heat are the clear favorites, and once again, the Thunder are the popular expectation to be the final and perhaps strongest challenger. While I was tempted to believe at one time that the Indiana Pacers might be able to give the champs a legitimate threat, but the entire Eastern Conference Playoffs feels like a month-long formality. 

That isn't to say that I don't think there won't be some excitement somewhere in this year's playoffs. Hell, there's a number of games out West that I think I'll be interested in catching. Oh, and yeah, the Bulls are in it. And I guess technically I'm expecting a couple upsets. 

As I probably made a little clear last night, my expectations are not very high for this year's Chicago team (although I think the other United Center resident should still be working there into June). While I'm certainly expecting a Heat repeat, I'm openly rooting for David Stern's final Larry O'Brien presentation be handing a fifth trophy to Gregg Popovich. Seeing as the wife hates the Spurs, that isn't likely to be too popular in my household, but hey, it's not my fault the Mavs season is over.

The Bulls' Fourth Quarter: Oh, the futility

At long last, the NBA regular season arrived at a somewhat merciful end. I will admit to watching some of the final night of action, games that had real seeding implications. For Bulls fans, we did not learn until the final night that Chicago gets to face a far more beatable Brooklyn team instead of a stronger Indiana squad in the first round of the playoffs. While the Nets certainly make for a more winnable series, what's really the reward? You get to be the next team to lose to the Heat? Yeah, maybe it won't be as embarrassing as getting pummeled in the Finals, but let's just say that I am not expecting to be asking to watch any Bulls games in June. Not even much of May. Certainly not without, well ... you know. That guy. 

There's a part of me that still quietly clings to the "Wouldn't it be cool" scenario in which Rose returns for the first game of the playoffs, the same point in the last season that was his last game. Or maybe Game 3, the first game in Chicago. No announcement, he's just suddenly in the starting lineup.

Of course, the reality is that you'll be watching the same group you've been seeing all year, still banged up and still grinding it out. Hell, even with Rose, that likely just means the team loses to Miami in five or six instead of four. There's admirable aspects to this year's Bulls team, but there just isn't much point beyond hoping for one playoff series win this year.

The Blackhawks' Third Quarter: What Me Worry? (Maybe a little ...)

All good things must come to an end, I suppose. Alas, the 'Hawks finally suffered a regulation loss—five of them, actually—during this last 12-game stretch. I believe the New York Times referred to their 6-5-1 record during this span as fairly "pedestrian," which seems fair. Still, Chicago remains atop the Western Conference (although the Anaheim Ducks are still right behind, and took all three meetings with the Blackhawks this year—more on that in a sec though), and is now tied with a Pittsburgh team that won every single game they played in March for the most points in the league. Entering this final stretch of the shortened season, the playoffs are all but a certainty, but that does not mean there aren't certain concerns that need to be addressed if Chicago is to bring home its second Stanley Cup in four years.

First (and foremost, in my mind) is the number of frightening late period/late game collapses. I haven't been keeping track, but there has been a disturbing number of goals allowed in the final two minutes of periods this year, and whereas this year began with me constantly expecting the Blackhawks to come back from one-goal deficits late in games, I now fear that they'll inevitably cough up any third period lead they have. This trend is most certainly not a good thing, and it needs to stop before the playoffs begin. Enter the playoffs with an inability to protect a lead, and a first-round exit is not out of the question.

And while I noted last quarter that Chicago had two of the best goaltenders in the league, there's the annual concern about whether Corey Crawford really is your "number one" guy in between the pipes. I'm a bit more skeptical about this issue (Antti Niemi was facing similar doubts toward the end of the 2010 regular season, but that turned out OK), but Crawford can't afford to allow the softies that helped Phoenix oust the 'Hawks last year. Emery is certainly more than capable as a backup right now, so it's not like we're stuck with a Huet-ish alternative here.

Similarly, there's been A LOT of venom directed at Dave Bolland, who has been basically invisible, borderline dead this season. It was kind of ironic that the goal that finally ended his more than month-long scoring drought didn't actually involve him taking a shot. Again, like the goalie situation, Bolland similarly struggled in the 2010 regular season before making an impact in the playoffs. A lot of the things he does to get under the skin of opponents does not come up on the stat sheet anyway, kind of like what he did to help set up this goal.

Finally, there's the underwhelming faceoff numbers, an issue that is supposedly addressed by the one notable trade Stan Bowman made before the deadline, acquiring Michal Handzus from San Jose. The Blackhawks didn't make any big-name moves like the arms race that is going on in the East between Boston and Pittsburgh, but I'm not sure they really needed to either. The team has been without the contributions of both Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp during these last dozen games, and those returns can only help.