Week Two Picks: Time to get serious (... obviously)

While it's been a fun week of distractions during last weekend's opening kickoff and this coming weekend's games, I can tell I'm still not quite truly back in the swing of things yet by the fact that the only upcoming matchup I've really been aware of this whole week is the hometown Bears going into Big D to play the Cowboys. Considering the bro-in-law's a devout Dallas fan, that holds the potential for some relatives (other than myself, of course) to never let him forget it should Chicago pull off an upset in the House that Jerry Built. But considering the officials already handed us one game last week, I'm not really counting on it.

Of course, my numbers system argues otherwise—because with only one week's worth of misleading results in the book, the numbers compiled from opening week and then factored into this week's games come up with a rather, um, interesting hypothetical confidence pool sheet. The Bears win over the Lions puts them at +14 when picked to win, and a somewhat stunning Dallas loss that makes them a -10 when picked to win, thus giving that game a total difference of 24—the largest difference of the week. If you think I'm putting 16 points on Chicago this week though, you're even crazier than Brian Baldinger.

The rest of that sheet by the numbers is pretty mystifying and I'll be stunned if it ends up being the best this week (the picks based on PFW's straight-up picks and ranked by their spread had the highest point total last week with 100.5, although Wunderdog had the best straight-up record at 11-5—whatever that's worth [hint: nothing]), but here's the other three before we get to my own picks for Week Two:

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
16 (13 ½)	16   (98%)	16 (27-16)	16 (24)
15 (9)	15 (94%)	15 (28-18)	15 (20)
14   (7 ½)	13 (90%)	14 (27-17)	14 (18)
13 (7)	13 (90%)	13 (25-16)	13 (17)
12 (6)	13 (90%)	12  (24-16)	12 (16)
10.5 (5)	10.5   (87%)	11   (25-18)	11 (16)
10.5 (5)	10.5   (87%)	10 (22-16)	10 (15)
9 (4 ½)	9   (84%)	9   (28-23)	9 (14)
7.5 (4)	8 (83%)	8   (21-16)	8 (14)
7.5   (4)	7 (82%)	7 (21-17)	7 (14)
6   (3 ½)	6 (81%)	6 (22-19)	6 (13)
4 (3)	5 (77%)	5  (24-21)	5 (11)
4 (3)	4   (72%)	4  (22-19)	4 (9)
4   (3)	3 (71%)	3   (24-21)	3 (9)
2 (1)	2   (62%)	2 (21-20)	2 (4)
1 (E)	1   (60%)	1 (20-20)	1 (2)
84 points (9-7)	83 points (10-6)	86 points (10-6)	76 points (7-9)

So the numbers this week are good for a laugh but not much more beyond that. Here's what I'm actually going to be submitting as my own picks for Week Two:

16 points

Green Bay Packers (1-0) over Buffalo Bills (0-1)

+5/0 : +14/14/0 : 0/+9

No Ryan Grant? No big deal as Aaron Rodgers torches the Buffalo secondary in Green Bay's home opener.

15 points

San Diego Chargers (0-1) over Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)

-16/0 : -16/17/+1 : +1/0

The Chargers wouldn't be the Chargers without a bump in the road to start the season, but I can't pick against them opening at home with a Jacksonville team that Philip Rivers should be able to light up.

14 points

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) over Miami Dolphins (1-0)

0/+7 : 0/16/+16 : +9/0

The Vikings prevail on both sides of the ball.

13 points
New Orleans Saints (1-0) over San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
+7/0 : +7/15/-8 : -8/0

After being embarrassed in Seattle to begin the season, the Niners will try to regain some rep here. Too bad it's going to be an even more potent offense than the one they faced last week, even if it is a home game on Monday night.

12 points
Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) over Detroit Lions (0-1)
0/+5 : +14/9/+5 : 0/+14

With both teams already having to start backups, how can you not like Michael Vick over Shaun Hill?

11 points
Dallas Cowboys (0-1) over Chicago Bears (1-0)
0/-10 : -10/24/+14 : +14/0

The Cowboys return to Big D and look to make last week's loss to the Skins seem like as distant a memory as possible.

10 points
Indianapolis Colts (0-1) over New York Giants (1-0)
0/-6 : -6/18/+12 : +12/0

Another pre-season favorite looking to get back on track after getting upset, the Colts return home and Peyton Manning thrives on national television on Sunday night.

9 points
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) over Arizona Cardinals (1-0)
-2/0 : -2/11/+13 : +13/0

After dropping a tough one in overtime to Pittsburgh on the road, the shaky Cards should be a good opportunity for Atlanta to put points up either through the air or on the ground.

8 points
Carolina Panthers (0-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)
0/+12 : -4/16/+12 : 0/-4

Carolina's gotta win a game or two at some point, and at home against a pretty bad Bucs team should be one of those opportunities. Whatever the QB issue for the Panthers, it's irrelevant if they stick to running it down Tampa's throat.

7 points
Tennessee Titans (1-0) over Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
+15/0 : +13/13/0 : 0/-2

Pittsburgh pulled one out last week at home, but they'll be harder-pressed to be as lucky against a bitter rival on the road.

6 points
Oakland Raiders (0-1) over St. Louis Rams (0-1)
0/+15 : +13/2/+15 : 0/+13

Sam Bradford visits the Black Hole. 'Nuff said.

5 points
Houston Texans (1-0) over Washington Redskins (1-0)
0/-6 : -10/4/-6 : 0/-10

Two teams not many would have guessed to have won their openers, but Houston had their attack together while the Redskins struggled and only scored a touchdown on a turnover late in the first half.

4 points
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) over Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
+3/0 : +14/14/0 : 0/+11

Certainly more of a must-win for Cincy this early in the season, but I'll stick with my pre-season Super Bowl pick to win a game like this as part of laying claim to the division title this year.

3 points
New England Patriots (1-0) over New York Jets (0-1)
+11/0 : +14/14/0 : 0/+3

Awful lot of pressure on Rex Ryan's big-talking Jets, and the Patriots should know how to take advantage.

2 points 
Denver Broncos (0-1) over Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
0/+1 : -8/9/+1 : 0/-8

The Broncos need it more than Seattle and get the benefit of being at home.

1 point
Cleveland Browns (0-1) over Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
-4/0 : -20/20/0 : 0/-16

A chance for the Browns to make up for last week's missed opportunity in Tampa.