Week One Picks: How do I do this again?

As another season gets ready to kick off here, I'm trying to remember how I did things last year—and the year before that. So be patient with me as I adjust, but I'll have you know that I fancied up the table of predictions from others for this year. Brian Burke's probabilities haven't been listed yet over at the New York Times' Fifth Down blog, so adding his theoretical confidence pool sheet to the table is apparently going to have to wait for another week. Still, in the meantime, here's four other confidence layouts for me to use as a starting point and for you to peruse in perhaps filling out your own:

PFW Spread	Yahoo Users	Wunderdog	My Numbers
16 (7)	15.5 (92%)	16 (29-18)	16 (400)
14.5 (6 ½)	15.5 (92%)	15 (26-17)	15 (371)
14.5  (6 ½)	14 (89%)	14 (25-17)	14 (274)
12.5 (5 ½)	13 (87%)	13 (25-17)	13  (191)
12.5 (5 ½)	12 (86%)	12 (25-18)	12 (166)
11  (4 ½)	10 (84%)	11  (23-18)	11 (162)
10  (4)	10 (84%)	10 (21-18)	10  (132)
9 (3 ½)	10 (84%)	9 (19-16)	9 (100)
7.5  (3)	8 (82%)	8 (23-20)	8  (91)
7.5 (3)	7 (81%)	7  (22-20)	7 (86)
3.5  (2 ½)	6 (78%)	6 (26-25)	6  (78)
3.5  (2 ½)	5 (77%)	5 (20-19)	5 (49)
3.5 (2 ½)	4 (66%)	4 (18-17)	4  (39)
3.5 (2 ½)	3 (60%)	3 (24-23)	3  (33)
3.5 (2 ½)	2 (58%)	2 (21-21)	2 (32)
3.5  (2 ½)	1 (51%)	1 (25-24)	1 (26)
100.5 points (10-6)	88.5 points (10-6)	93 points (11-5)	84 points (10-6)

So we've got similarities among those four sheets. If you're new here, you're probably asking how the hell "my numbers" are calculated, and I know I've been promising to better explain that whole science for years, but for now I'll redirect your attention to my poor initial explanation of the formula here and cite the numbers used for this week's purposes as being the grand total of how these teams have fared over two seasons of confidence pools as compiled here. Hope that helps ...

All of that said, here's how my own very first week of picks is going to look (and I'll immediately fill myself with despair about):

16 points

San Diego Chargers (0-0) over Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

+126/+121 : +276/274/+2 : -19/+150

I'm a little edgy about the game being in K.C., but feel comforted by the fact that the Bolts outscored the Chiefs 80-21 in their two meetings last year. Maybe the newly renovated Arrowhead hosting its first Monday night game since 2004 can help a Kansas City team that's only won four times at home over the past three seasons, but I'm obviously not counting on it.

15 points

Tennessee Titans (0-0) over Oakland Raiders (0-0)

+76/+15 : +147/132/+15 : 0/+71

I like the Raiders to be better this year, but I don't think the turnaround begins here. Their 29th-ranked run defense from last season has to try and slow down last year's top rusher and Oakland has dropped seven straight regular-season openers.

14 points

Chicago Bears (0-0) over Detroit Lions (0-0)

+58/+27 : +385/371/+14 : -13/+327

Could be the highest I bet on the Bears all season. And yes, I'm totally nervous about it.

13 points
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) over St. Louis Rams (0-0)
+85/+4 : +404/400/+4 : 0/+319

I have not picked the Rams to win any game in the past two years, and they'll be picking up right where they left off with me this year. Arizona's not as good as they've been either of the last two years, but they don't need to be in order to beat St. Louis.

12 points
New York Giants (0-0) over Carolina Panthers (0-0)
+122/-4 : +135/49/+86 : +90/+13

The Giants open their New Meadowlands Stadium by getting an opportunity to avenge the 41-9 beatdown they suffered to Carolina to close out the old one.

11 points
New England Patriots (0-0) over Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
+120/+1 : +172/162/+10 : +9/+52

Should be an aerial shootout, but I'll go with the Pats opening at home.

10 points
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) over Washington Redskins (0-0)
+84/+3 : +183/166/+17 : +14/+99

Donovan McNabb or not, the new QB in Washington won't be a factor in the Cowboys running all over the Redskins.

9 points
Miami Dolphins (0-0) over Buffalo Bills (0-0)
+70/+15 : +113/91/+22 : +7/+43

The Dolphins haven't won at Ralph Wilson Stadium since 2003, so I'm guessing they're due.

8 points
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) over Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
+53/+78 : +202/100/+102 : +24/+149

The Niners enjoy a big advantage in the trenches as Pete Carroll's tenure in Seattle gets off to a rough start.

7 points
New Orleans Saints (0-0) over Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
+103/+17 : +106/26/+132 : +115/+3

The banged-up Vikes won't be able to compete with the defending champs on opening night shortly after raising their first banner.

6 points
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) over Houston Texans (0-0)
+186/-7 : +208/191/+37 : +44/+22

It's a little scary for the Colts to open on the road in Houston, until I realize that Indy is 6-1 in road openers with Peyton at QB. Oh, and the Texans were 1-5 against the AFC South last year.

5 points
Green Bay Packers (0-0) over Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
+44/+14 : +55/39/+94 : +80/+11

Philly will try to take to the air, but struggle with pass protection throughout the preseason. Expect the Packers to go after Eagles rookie free safety Nate Allen.

4 points
Cleveland Browns (0-0) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
-12/+158 : +108/78/+186 : +28/+120

Much like the Bears, this could be the highest I bet on Cleveland all season.

3 points
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) over New York Jets (0-0)
+142/+18 : +189/86/+43 : +25/-13

As long as I'm picking Baltimore to win the Super Bowl, might as well put my money where my mouth is early.

2 points
Atlanta Falcons (0-0) over Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
+74/+23 : +65/32/+97 : +74/-9

The Steelers falter without Big Ben.

1 point
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) over Denver Broncos (0-0)
-12/+45 : -16/33/+17 : -28/-4

Ugh. Two of my three worst all-time teams. I'd actually bet it's a tie if I could.